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Sliding Plasma and a CME NEW Feb. 08–15, 2010 The STEREO (Behind) spacecraft could see streams of plasma sliding along magnetic field lines above a sputtering active region (Jan. 26-29, 2010). The dynamic streams were just over the Sun's edge and readily spotted as the Sun rotated them more into view. Then it gets more interesting. |
| Solar, Earth Atmospheric and Climate Gallery |
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Interview Segments with Key Glory Personnel NEW Jan. 31, 2010 Glory is a remote-sensing Earth-orbiting observatory designed to achieve two separate mission objectives. One is to collect data on the chemical, microphysical, and optical properties of aerosols, along with their spatial and temporal distributions. Glory’s second mission objective is to continue collection of total solar irradiance data for the long-term climate record. Glory accomplishes these objectives by deploying two instruments aboard a low earth orbit satellite: the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS) and the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM). |
| Latest Space Weather News |
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Scientists
Uncover Solar Cycle, Stratosphere, and Ocean Connections
Aug. 27, 2009 Subtle connections between the 11-year solar cycle, the stratosphere, and the tropical Pacific Ocean work in sync to generate periodic weather patterns that affect much of the globe, according to research. An international team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) used more than a century of weather observations and three powerful computer models to tackle one of the more difficult questions in meteorology: if the total energy that reaches Earth from the Sun varies by only 0.1 percent across the approximately 11-year solar cycle, how can such a small variation drive major changes in weather patterns on Earth? |
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Engineers
move toward a better understanding of space weather conditions
that affect our lives
Feb. 11, 2009 For the past 15 years, engineers and scientists have gained a greater understanding of global warming, the effects of geomagnetic storms, the impact of the solar wind interacting on the magnetized region around the earth, and other dynamic processes that occur in the Earth's near-space environment. |
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Ulysses
Reveals Global Solar Wind Plasma Output at 50-Year Low
Sept. 23, 2008 Data from the Ulysses spacecraft, a joint NASA-European Space Agency mission, show the sun has reduced its output of solar wind to the lowest levels since accurate readings became available. The sun's current state could reduce the natural shielding that envelops our solar system. "The sun's million mile-per-hour solar wind inflates a protective bubble, or heliosphere, around the solar system. It influences how things work here on Earth and even out at the boundary of our solar system where it meets the galaxy," said Dave McComas, |
| Costello Geomagnetic Activity Index |
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The Costello Geomagnetic Activity Index model was developed by Kirt Costello at Rice University under support from the US Air Force and Sterling Software, Inc. It is a neural network algorithm that was trained on the response of the Kp geomagnetic activity index to solar wind parameters. The model takes the most recent two hours of solar wind data and returns a 3-hour activity index prediction in units of Kp. The valid time of the prediction is indicated on the output graphics by horizontal bars. SEC's test product based on this model is an estimate of the geomagnetic activity level, in Kp units, generated every 15 minutes. |
| Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary |
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Issued:
2010 February 08, 02:45 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 039 Issued at 0245Z on 08 Feb 2010 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Feb A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 0220 0234 0239 1045 N21E10 M6.4 1n 570 170 0251 0254 0305 950 0254 0257 0322 1000 0312 0316 0319 190 1333 1337 1339 B7.1 100 1721 1721 1721 290 1833 1836 1840 1045 N22E04 B8.3 Sf 100 1927 1927 1927 200 1930 1930 1930 190 1946 1946 1946 170 1949 1949 1949 170 2039 2039 2039 100 2043 2043 2043 100 2104 2104 2104 130 2107 2107 2107 190 2128 2128 2128 1000 2152 2152 2152 120 2225 2225 2225 160 2228 2231 2233 C1.0 400 2253 2253 2253 280 2256 2256 2256 100 2318 2318 2318 420 2352 2352 2352 230 2355 2355 2355 250 B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 090 SSN 051 Afr/Ap 002/003 X-ray Background B2.2 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 9.8e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.0e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-11 satellite synchronous orbit W135 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.20e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-11 satellite synchronous orbit W135 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 Planetary 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 F. Comments: None |
| MDI Farside Image |
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The Earthside, or near-side, data are smoothed magnetic flux as measured by MDI. The images are shown to 70 degrees from disk center. Each magnetogram takes only one minute to observe. The farside images are maps of wave speed variations with locations of faster wave speed shown darker. These darker regions indicate locations where there is an accumulation of magnetic field on the far surface. The farside images can only be computed out to 45 degrees from the farside disk center as (un)seen from Earth. A full 24-hours of MDI surface velocity data is used to compute each image. |
| Current SOHO Images and Video's |
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| Sunspots | MDI Continuum | MDI Magnetogram | LASCO C2 | LASCO C3 | EIT 171 | EIT 195 | EIT 284 | EIT 304 |
| SECCHI Beacon Images |
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| EUVI 195 Behind | COR1 Behind | COR2 Behind | HI1 Behind | EUVI 195 Ahead | COR1 Ahead | COR2 Ahead | HI1 Ahead |
| Summary Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity | Weekly Highlights and Forecasts |
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Issued:
2010 February 07, 22:00 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1045 (N23W01) produced two M-class events during the past 24 hours. The first was a M1 at 06/2137Z and the second was a M6/1n at 07/0224Z. The SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a CME off the east limb with the first event and a full halo with the second event. The M6 x-ray event had an associated EIT wave, and a Tenflare of 170sfu. This region has retained a magnetic beta-gamma configuration with a possible delta magnetic configuration within its interior spots. A new region was numbered today as Region 1046 (N25E65). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with M-class events likely. There is a slight chance for a X-class event from Region 1045. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions for the next three days (08-10 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects. III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Feb 090 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 092/094/094 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 078 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 010/010-008/009-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 |
Issued:
2010 February 03, 15:00 UTC
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 - 31 January 2010 Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class activity observed during the period. Region 1041 (S25, L=052, class/area 200/Eso on 22 January) decayed to spotless plage on 31 January. Region 1042 (N22, L=131, class/area 190/Cao on 23 January) quietly rotated off the disk on 27 January. New Region 1043 (N25, L=320, class/area Dso/060 on 31 January) emerged on the disk on 30 January as a beta sunspot group. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels during the period. Geomagnetic field activity was predominately quiet during the period. The exception consisted of an isolated unsettled period observed at high latitudes from 31/1200 - 1500 UTC. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated a solar sector boundary crossing occurred at about 30/1100 UTC. The phi angle changed from a positive (away) angle to a negative (towards) angle, while solar wind velocity increased from 330 km/s at 30/1103 UTC to a maximum of 472 km/s at 31/0759 UTC. During the summary period, density peaked at 18 p/cc at 30/0524 UTC, while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +7nT at 30/0527 UTC and -7nT at 30/0156 UTC. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 February - 01 March 2010 Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through the period. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the forecast period. A period of quiet to unsettled activity is expected on 08 - 09 February due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. A period of unsettled to active levels are expected on 16 February as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective. |
| Daily Ionospheric Forecast | |
| Low Latitude Forecast | Mid Latitude Forecast |
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Forecast
Issued 12:00 UTC February 05, 2010
PAST
SUMMARY 11:00-11:00 UT, 04 Feb-05 Feb
=========================================
HF
SKYWAVE MUF VARIATIONS
UT
11-17 17-23 23-05 05-11
MUFs
30-60 55-65 60-70 55-95
ICF
4 6 6 7
24
Hour ICF : 6
DAYTIME
LUF : NORMAL
POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVE FADES : NONE
A
(04 Feb) : 0 (NO DATA)
SUNSPOT
NUMBER INDEX (04 Feb) : 11
10
CM FLUX VALUE (04 Feb) : 74
FAIR HF RADIO CONDITIONS PREVAILED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. MUFS HAVE BEEN DEPRESSED. FORECAST 11:00-11:00 UT, 05 Feb-06 Feb ========================================= UT 11-17 17-23 23-05 05-11 MUFs DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN ICF 6 6 6 7 DAYTIME LUF : NORMAL SWF PROBABILITY : 2 PERCENT GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY : 04-06 Feb A = 7/7/1 (QUIET) 24 HOUR ICF: 6 POOR HF RADIO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MUFS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE DEPRESSED. IF HF CONDITIONS ARE DEGRADED THEN TRY USING A LOWER FREQUENCY. ------------------Daily Ionospheric Forecasting Service (DIFS)------------------- BAE SYSTEMS Advanced Technology Systems, Gt Baddow, Chelmsford, Essex, UK, CM2 8HN | Tel: +44 1245 242143 A glossary is available here: http://www.sflorg.com/BAE_Systems_DIFS/glossary.html |
Forecast
Issued 12:00 UTC February 05, 2010
PAST
SUMMARY 11:00-11:00 UT, 04 Feb-05 Feb
=========================================
HF
SKYWAVE MUF VARIATIONS
UT
11-17 17-23 23-05 05-11
MUFs
65-85 65-110 65-115 65-75
ICF
7 8 8 7
24
Hour ICF : 8
DAYTIME
LUF : NORMAL
POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVE FADES : NONE
A
(04 Feb) : 0 (NO DATA)
SUNSPOT
NUMBER INDEX (04 Feb) : 11
10
CM FLUX VALUE (04 Feb) : 74
FAIR HF RADIO CONDITIONS PREVAILED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. MUFS HAVE BEEN DEPRESSED SLIGHTLY. FORECAST 11:00-11:00 UT, 05 Feb-06 Feb ========================================= UT 11-17 17-23 23-05 05-11 MUFs DOWN NORMAL NORMAL DOWN ICF 7 8 8 7 DAYTIME LUF : NORMAL SWF PROBABILITY : 2 PERCENT GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY : 04-06 Feb A = 7/7/1 (QUIET) 24 HOUR ICF: 8 POOR HF RADIO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 17:00 WITH SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT LATER. THE MUFS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE DEPRESSED. IF HF CONDITIONS ARE DEGRADED THEN TRY USING A LOWER FREQUENCY. ------------------Daily Ionospheric Forecasting Service (DIFS)------------------- BAE SYSTEMS Advanced Technology Systems, Gt Baddow, Chelmsford, Essex, UK, CM2 8HN | Tel: +44 1245 242143 A glossary is available here: http://www.sflorg.com/BAE_Systems_DIFS/glossary.html |
| High Latitude Forecast | Daily Satcom Ionospheric Forecast |
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Forecast
Issued 12:00 UTC February 05, 2010
PAST
SUMMARY 11:00-11:00 UT, 04 Feb-05 Feb
=========================================
HF
SKYWAVE MUF VARIATIONS
UT
11-17 17-23 23-05 05-11
MUFs
50-75 70-100 65-85 80-85
ICF
6 8 8 8
24
Hour ICF : 8
DAYTIME
LUF : NORMAL
POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVE FADES : NONE
A
(04 Feb) : 0 (NO DATA)
SUNSPOT
NUMBER INDEX (04 Feb) : 11
10
CM FLUX VALUE (04 Feb) : 74
FAIR HF RADIO CONDITIONS PREVAILED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. MUFS HAVE BEEN DEPRESSED. FORECAST 11:00-11:00 UT, 05 Feb-06 Feb ========================================= UT 11-17 17-23 23-05 05-11 MUFs DOWN NORMAL NORMAL NORMAL ICF 6 8 8 8 DAYTIME LUF : NORMAL SWF PROBABILITY : 2 PERCENT GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY : 04-06 Feb A = 7/7/1 (QUIET) 24 HOUR ICF: 8 POOR HF RADIO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 17:00 WITH SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT LATER. IF HF CONDITIONS ARE DEGRADED THEN TRY USING A LOWER FREQUENCY. ------------------Daily Ionospheric Forecasting Service (DIFS)------------------- BAE SYSTEMS Advanced Technology Systems, Gt Baddow, Chelmsford, Essex, UK, CM2 8HN | Tel: +44 1245 242143 A glossary is available here: http://www.sflorg.com/BAE_Systems_DIFS/glossary.html |
Forecast
Issued 12:00 UTC February 05, 2010
FORECAST
FOR 12:00 UT : 05/02/2010
5 Feb 6 Feb LT 12-18 18-00 00-06 06-12 Polar Q D D Q Mid Q Q Q Q Equator Q D D Q Q - Quiet. Low probability of fading expected on SATCOM Circuits M - Moderate. Moderate fading possible on circuits D - Disturbed. Reasonably high fading probable on circuits S - Severe. High probability of outages K - 3 hourly values (NO DATA) : 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (NO DATA) A Index (NO DATA/NO DATA) : 0 (NO DATA) Predicted A Index (04-06 Feb) : 7/7/1 ----------------Daily Ionospheric Forecasting Service (DIFS)----------------- BAE SYSTEMS Advanced Technology Systems, Gt Baddow, Chelmsford, Essex, UK, CM2 8HN | Tel: +44 1245 242143 |
| PCW Memorial Observatory Solar Observations by Erika Rix |
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Solar prominences in h-alpha, eastern limb NEW Feb. 24, 2009 Observation Date 2009 Feb 24, 1510UT – 1600UT The eastern hemisphere, especially east to the northeast, was scattered with prominences. As transparency improved, details of these little prominences came to light. The most obvious set was around 90° position angle and then a squat hedgerow one around 40°. I stopped my first sketch midway and began a fresh one with a larger limb span to include the majority of them, most which were faint and whispy or very tiny. |
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Solar prominences in h-alpha, eastern limb NEW Feb. 24, 2009 Observation Date 2009 Feb 23, 1519UT – 1555UT A fairly tall prominence stood out on the eastern limb that looked like a pair of hands loosely pressed together in prayer. Par for the course on these larger delicate features, they look almost detached until you concentrate on that area for a more in depth look. This is the prominence I concentrated on for the observation sketch. There was another smaller prom just north on the western limb close to a position angle of 290-300 degrees |
| PCW Memorial Observatory Archive |
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When we reached our destination, any momentary disappointment of being led into the gymnasium soon turned into a flutter of anticipation when we quietly followed her up on the stage and she then turned off all the lights after pulling the huge stage curtains shut. You could hear all my classmates inhale from surprise at the sudden darkness, myself included. It was soon followed by giggles when out of the darkness a flashlight clicked on and the only sight to be seen was my teacher’s smiling face. I remember her well. She was one of my favorites, very kind, and full of wonder. The next hour we all sat there cross legged, wide eyed in a circle around her as she explained to us about the our solar system. It seemed as if she had several floating hands rotating the model planets in midair around our sun, the flashlight. It was amazing and left a remarkable impact on me. |
Solar prominences in h-alpha, western limb Feb. 13, 2009 Prominence Feb. 03, 2009 Solar – featuring SE quadrant and NOAA 11003 Oct. 05, 2008 Solar H-alpha: 2008 05 04, 1035ST - 1145ST (1435UT – 1545UT) May 05, 2008 Solar H-alpha 2008 April 06 Apr. 06, 2008 Solar H-alpha and White Light: 2008 March 26 March 27, 2008 Solar H-alpha: March 23, 2008 March 24, 2008 Sun in h-alpha 2008/02/16 Feb. 16, 2008 Solar H-alpha 02/11/2008 Feb. 11, 2008 Solar H-alpha Jan. 25, 2008 Solar H-alpha Jan. 24, 2008 Open Cluster Observations Apr. 12, 2007 First Report from the PCW Memorial Observatory May 29, 2007 First Solar Report From PCW Memorial Observatory June 10, 2007 Word for the day: Opacity Aug. 27, 2007 Solar Observation / 112307 Nov. 23, 2007 Solar Observation / 112407 Nov. 24, 2007 Solar Observation / 113007 Dec. 01, 2007 Solar Observation / 2007-12-25 Dec. 25, 2007 |
| Space Weather News Archive |
| Special Notices |
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GOES 10
Decommissioning Dec 1, 2009
GOES 14 Becomes
Primary Satellite for XRS data No Secondary Satellite for X-rays or Electrons and Protons
November 18, 2009 --
On Tuesday, 01 December, the GOES 10 satellite will be
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