Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4325
Issue Time: 2023 Mar 25 1101 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 4324 Valid From: 2023 Mar 23 0827 UTC Now Valid Until: 2023 Mar 25 2100 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. Space Weather Scales
|Current Condition and Alerts|
Issued: 2023 Mar 25 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Geophysical Alert Message
Solar-terrestrial indices for 24 March follow. Solar flux 158 and estimated planetary A-index 66. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 25 March was 3.67.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely. Space Weather Scales
Issued: 2023 Mar 25 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3259 (S15W03, Cro/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C2.2/Sf at 24/1340 UTC. Penumbral growth was observed in Region 3256 (S23W17, Eho/beta-gamma) among its trailer spots. Slight growth was observed in Region 3258 (N24W37, Cso/beta). The remaining active regions were either stable or changed little during the reporting period.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) over 25-27 Mar.
.24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels.
.Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at nominal levels from 25-27 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels on 25-26 Mar. High levels are anticipated by 27 Mar due to elevated CH HSS wind speeds.
.24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters transitioned from waning transient influence to enhancements that suggest the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength varied between 5-11 nT. Bz reached as far south as -8 nT at 25/0804 UTC. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from ~400 km/s around 24/1417 UTC to brief peaks above ~550 km/s after 25/0816 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from variable to negative after 14/1800 UTC.
.Forecast... An enhanced solar wind field is likely throughout the forecast period (25-27 Mar) in response to a negative polarity CH HSS.
.24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached as high as G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels in response to the waning influence of a passing CME that transitioned the current influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) levels on 25-26 Mar due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are possible on 27 Mar as CH HSS effects expected to wane. Space Weather Scales
|Three Day Forecast|
Issued: 2023 Mar 25 1230 UTC
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 25-Mar 27 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 25-Mar 27 2023
Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 00-03UT 3.00 2.67 4.00 03-06UT 2.67 3.33 3.67 06-09UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 3.00 09-12UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 4.00 3.67 2.00 15-18UT 4.00 3.33 2.00 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.67 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 3.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 25-26 Mar due to coronal hole effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 25-Mar 27 2023
Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 25-Mar 27 2023
Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 R1-R2 10% 10% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 25-27 Mar. Space Weather Scales
|Weekly Highlights and Forecasts|
Issued: 2023 Mar 20 0234 UTC
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 March 2023
Solar activity reached moderate levels on 17 Mar due to an M1/Sn flare (R1 - Minor) at 17/1507 UTC from Region 3247 (S24, L=162, class/area=Cao/100 on 08 Mar). The other 17 numbered active regions on the visible disk only produced low levels of solar activity during the summary period. Other activity included many filament eruptions but only a DSF on ~17/0930 UTC, centered near S40W38, was modeled and thought to have an Earth-directed component. Model output suggested anticipated onset of the CME to be late on 20 Mar to early on 21 Mar. Lastly, a Type IV radio sweep was observed in conjunction with an impulsive C9/1n 18/0716 UTC flare from Region 3256 (S22, L=004, class/area=Eko/270 on 19 Mar).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels on 13 Mar. The enhancement was associated with a full-halo CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning near 13/0336 UTC. The energetic event was determined to be associated with activity on the far-side of the Sun but still was able to produce significant enhancements in relativistic proton flux on the GOES-16 satellite. S1 conditions were reached again on 14 Mar, with an additional enhancement associated with a shock ahead of a CME that would arrive on 15 Mar that would increase 10 MeV protons back above the S1 threshold to an eventual peak flux of 22 pfu at 15/0425 UTC. After shock passage, the >10 MeV proton flux quickly decreased, with the last observation above the S1 threshold observed at 15/0530 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate levels over the summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 conditions were observed on 15 Mar in response to influence from a CMEs that left the Sun over 11 and 12 Mar. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) increased from 8 nT 18 nT during the shock at 15/0347 UTC. With the shock, wind speeds increased from ~425 km/s to ~525 km/s. Bt reached a peak of 24-25 nT shortly after and solar wind speeds were recorded at ~570 km/s before both speeds and Bt underwent a gradual decline. Weaker activity, also associated with transient activity produced active conditions on 14 Mar and 16 Mar. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 17-19 Mar and only quiet conditions were observed on 13 Mar.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 March - 15 April 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events. This is due to the flare potential of regions both currently on the visible disk and significant regions expected to return to the visible disk from the far-side of the Sun over the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely on 26-29 Mar and 31 Mar - 06 Apr due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 conditions are likely on 25 Mar; G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 26 Mar and 30-31 Mar; active conditions are likely on 20-21 Mar, 01-02 Apr and 10-11 Apr; unsettled conditions are likely on 24 Mar, 27-28 Mar, 03-04 Apr, 12 Apr and 14-15 Apr. With the exception of 20-21 Mar, which is expected to include possible transient influence as well, all anticipated enhancements in geomagnetic conditions are in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels. Space Weather Scales
|More Space Weather Information|
|Space Weather Data|
|About AIA Images|
|The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.|
|Daily Image AIA 171|
|Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model|
|Daily Image AIA 193|
|Daily Image AIA 304|
|Daily Video AIA 171|
|Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model|
|Daily Video AIA 304|
|About the HMI Images|
|(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.|
|Daily Image HMI Continuum|
|Daily Image HMI Magnetogram|
|About LASCO Images|
|LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.|
|Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304|
|Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304|
|Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video|
|Space Weather Videos|