Warnings |
No Current Warnings Space Weather Scales |
Current Condition and Alerts |
Issued: 2024 Mar 28 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 27 March follow. Solar flux 175 and estimated planetary A-index 7. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 28 March was 1.67. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level . Space Weather Scales |
Forecast Discussion |
Issued: 2024 Mar 28 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels as AR 3615 (S13W60, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a M7.1/1N flare at 28/0629 UTC. Region 3615 continued to be the largest, most complex region on the visible disk while undergoing some minor consolidation in its trailing spots. The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay. The aforementioned M-class flare from AR 3615 did not appear to result in a CME. However, GOES-16 SUVI 304 angstroms imagery suggests that a C8.4 flare at 28/0943 UTC from Region 3615 did result in ejecta. While an Earth-directed component is unlikely, we currently await LASCO coronagraph imagery to conduct a proper analysis. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong), over 28-29 Mar primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3615. Probabilities decrease to just a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 30 Mar as AR 3615 rotates beyond the western limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated, but below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 29 Mar primarily due to the potential and location of AR 3615. Probabilities for an event decrease to just a slight chance on 30 Mar as AR 3615 rotates beyond the western limb. There is a chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels beginning on 28 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a CME that left the Sun on 23 Mar. Total field was between 1-5 nT, and the Bz component was at or near neutral. Solar wind speeds decreased from near 500 km/s to ~435 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector. .Forecast... Ambient-like solar wind conditions are expected to return by late 28 Mar. Slighted elevated parameters are possible again by late 29 Mar under weak, negative polarity CH HSS influences, which will continue through 30 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of 29 Mar. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 29-30 Mar due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS effects. Space Weather Scales |
Three Day Forecast |
Issued: 2024 Mar 28 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar 30 00-03UT 2.00 2.67 2.67 03-06UT 1.33 2.00 2.33 06-09UT 2.00 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 1.67 2.33 2.33 12-15UT 1.00 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 1.33 2.33 1.00 18-21UT 1.33 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 1.33 2.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar 30 S1 or greater 30% 30% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over the next two days due to the flare potential for Region 3615. Probabilities decrease slightly for 30 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 28 2024 0629 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2024 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar 30 R1-R2 75% 75% 40% R3 or greater 25% 25% 10% Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next two days. Probabilities decrease slightly for 30 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb. Space Weather Scales |
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts |
Issued: 2024 Mar 25 0644 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 March 2024 Solar activity during the week reached high levels. The largest flare was an X1.1/ 2F at 23/0133 UTC. Region 3614 (N17, L=224, Dso-B/210 on 23 Mar) produced the flare which appeared along a filanment channel to the north of the spot group. A 240 SFU 10cm radio burst and Type II sweep (791 km/s) were observed. The flare was also accompanied by an EUV wave, dimming and post-eruptive arcades visible in GOES SUVI 195 Angstrom imagery. An asymmetric halo cme was first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 23/0048 UTC. Plane of sky measurments averaged from C2 and C3 suggested the CME was moving at 1492 km/s. While Region 3614 produced the largest flare of the week, Region 3615 (S13, L-215, Fkc-BGD/810 on 24 March) was the most prolific. It produced 27 M-class flares during the week, three of which were greater than M5 (R2). The largest was an M7.4, 3B on 20/0736 UTC. The X1.1 and CME described above triggered a 10 MeV proton event. The 10 MeV flux began rising at 23/0400 UTC, crossed the 10 pfu (S1) threshold at 23/0815 UTC and the 100 pfu (S2) threshold at 23/1405 UTC. The event peaked on 23/1820 UTC at 956 pfu. A second peak of 687 pfu was observed at 24/1230 UTC as the CME described earlier approached. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to moderate levels throughout the week. Four distinct geomagnetic storms ocurred during the week. The first was associated with a CME arrival at 21/0225 UTC. Bz dipped southward to -12 nt and, and a couple of periods of prolonged southward Bz led to three synoptic periods of minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions between 21/1200-2100 UTC. The second even began on 22/2320 UTC Bz shifted southward around 23/0100 UTC and remained there for about 7 hours. This gave rise to two periods of minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions between 23/0300-0900 UTC. This activity was most likely a CIR, in advance of a negative polarity coronal hole, based on the density increase and rotation of the Phi angle .Solar wind speed and temperature began rising at the end of the storm activity, suggesting the high-speed stream had become geoeffective. The third storm began with the 23/1800 UTC UTC synoptic period (Kp=5-, G1), peaked during the 2100-0000 UTC synoptic period, reaching Kp=6- (G2), and returned to G1 conditions for the final period from 24/0000 UTC to 24/0300 UTC. The final storm began with the arrival of the CME described in the first paragraph. The interplanetary shock arrived at L1 at 24/1411 UTC and a sudden impulse (377 nT at Meanook Observatory) was detected at 24/1437 UTC. Solar wind speed jumped from the 500-550 km/s high speed stream values to approximately 800 km/s and remained elevated. Bz dipped southward to -27 nT at 24/1510 UTC. Kp ranged from 6+ (G2) moderate storm conditions to 8o (G4) sever conditions between 24/1200-2100 UTC. The severe synoptic period was from 24/1500-1800 UTC. The magnetic cloud appears to have arrived around 24/1826 UTC distinguised by a slow rotation of the Phi angle. Earth was still within the magnetic cloud at the end of this reporting period. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 March - 20 April 2024 The threat of high solar activity remains throughout the coming week. Region 3615 (Fkc-BGD) is expected to remain on the visible disk until March 29th-30th. The departure of Region 3615 is anticipated to bring a period of low solar activity with a lingering chance for M flares. Regions 3614 and 3615 are expected to return on April 11th, increasing the potential for moderate to high activity. Along with the high solar activity, there is a chance for another proton event at geosynchronous orbit, with the greatest threat from Region 3615 until it departs. The threat will decrease until the region returns on April 11th. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the forecast period. The high levels are anticipated between March 28th-31st, and again from 6-8 April in the wake of coronal holes. The beginning of the forecast period is expected to see strong (G3) geomagnetic conditions declining to mostly quiet conditions after March 26th. Levels will increase to potentially minor (G1) levels with the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream on April 3rd-5th. High speed streams on April 9th-11th and 19th-20th are expected to bring less than minor (G1) storm conditions. The threat of more CMEs and subsequent storms associated with Regions 3614 and 3615, or with new regions that emerge, remains. Space Weather Scales |
About AIA Images |
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
Daily Image AIA 171 |
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX |
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model |
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX |
Daily Image AIA 193 |
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV |
Daily Image AIA 304 |
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II |
Daily Video AIA 171 |
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model |
Daily Video AIA 193 |
Daily Video AIA 304 |
About the HMI Images |
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
Daily Image HMI Continuum |
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram |
About LASCO Images |
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
Space Weather Videos |