| Warnings | |
| No Current Warnings Space Weather Scales | |
| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2025 Sep 12 1805 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 11 September follow. Solar flux 115 and estimated planetary A-index 10. The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 12 September was 2.00. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2025 Sep 12 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 4207 (N28, L=50) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C7.6 at 11/1521 UTC, as the region rotated toward the west limb. Newly numbered region 4216 (N09E70, Dso/beta) moved further into view near the east limb and appeared to be mostly stable and unchanged. The remaining regions were also either stable or in decay. Analysis of the filament from 11 Sep indicated that the bulk of the material should miss south of Earth, but may provide a glancing blow by late on 14 to early 15 Sep. However, confidence in the modeling of the event is low. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 14 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 14 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 14 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected continued but weakening positive polarity CH HSS influences throughout the period. Total field averaged near 6 nT, Bz varied between +/- 5nT, and solar winds decreased to around 385 km/s. Phi was in a positive orientation. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely on 12 Sep as positive polarity CH HSS influences diminish. Nominal conditions are expected to return on 13 Sep. Another enhancement is likely on 14 Sep with the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible glancing effects of the 11 Sep CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 12 Sep as positive polarity CH HSS influences subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 13 Sep under an ambient solar wind environment. On 14 Sep, periods of active conditions are likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible glancing effects of the 11 Sep CME. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2025 Sep 12 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 12-Sep 14 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 12-Sep 14 2025 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 00-03UT 1.00 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 2.67 1.33 2.00 06-09UT 2.67 1.33 1.67 09-12UT 3.00 1.33 2.67 12-15UT 1.67 1.33 3.00 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 3.67 18-21UT 2.67 1.67 3.67 21-00UT 3.00 1.67 4.00 Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible glancing effects of the 11 Sep CME. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 12-Sep 14 2025 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 12-Sep 14 2025 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 R1-R2 20% 20% 20% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 14 Sep. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2025 Sep 08 0224 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 September 2025 Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-MInor) over 04 Sep, 05 Sep, and 06 Sep. All M-class flares were attributed to Region 4207 (S29, L=045, class/area=Fhi/390 on 04 Sep). The remaining 17 numbered active regions on the visible disk in the past week were either quiet or only produced C-class events. Other significant activity included a CME that erupted from a filament centered near N12W04 around 04/1945 UTC. This resulted in a halo CME signature in subsequent coronagraph imagery. Initial modelling of the event suggested arrival early on the 07 Sep. Observed arrival was mid-to-late on 06 Sep. The proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity was ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) levels. G2 conditions observed on 01 Sep were attributed to the onset of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Aug. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 25 nT and the Bz component was observed as far south as -23 nT at 02/0000 UTC. Shock arrival at ACE was observed at 01/2030 UTC, marked by a solar wind speed increase from ~410 km/s to ~645 km/s. A sudden impulse was observed at Earth at 01/2101 UTC. G1 (Minor) activity was observed on 02 and 03 Sep during the waning phase off the CME. Quiet conditions were observed over 04-05 Sep. An increase in activity was observed on 06 Sep, with a G1 period marking the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Sep. Total magnetic field strength reached an initial peak of 21 nT at 06/1407 UTC. The Bz component rotated as far south as -10 nT. The solar wind speeds increased to ~700 km/s. The Bz component rotated northward shortly after which resulted in mostly quiet conditions ov07 Sep during the waning phase of the CME. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 September - 04 October 2025 Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, with a chance for moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over the outlook period due to multiple complex regions both on the visible disk and expected to return from the Sun's farside. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels over 08-11 Sep and 20-21 Sep due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 15 Sep; active conditions are likely on 08 Sep, 14 Sep, 16 Sep, 28-29 Sep, and 03-04 Oct; unsettled conditions are likely on 09-10 Sep, 17-19 Sep, and 30 Sep. All increases in geomagnetic activity are in anticipated of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |