. Scientific Frontline: Space Weather

Space Weather

Warnings
No Current Warning
Space Weather Scales
Current Condition and Alerts
Issued: 2023 Feb 03 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Geophysical Alert Message

Solar-terrestrial indices for 02 February follow.
Solar flux 135 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 03 February was 0.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Space Weather Scales
Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Feb 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity barely reached low levels during the period as old Region
3204 (N24, L=033) produced a pair of C1 flares at 02/0439 UTC and
02/1412 UTC respectively. The four numbered regions remaining on the
visible disk remained mostly unchanged or exhibited slight decay, and
were stable and inactive.

A CME was observed off the NW limb, associated with a filament eruption
near Region 3201 (N24W56, Hsx/alpha). Modeling of this event confirmed
the initial analysis, and suggests the ejecta was well north and ahead
of Earths orbit.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with C-class flares likely on
03-05 Feb.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels, with a chance for high levels, on 03-05 Feb. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
DSCOVR data was suspect due to continued faraday cup issues, but both
ACE and available DSCOVR data reflected a mostly nominal solar wind
regime. Total field averaged near 5 nT, Bz varied slightly between +/-5
nT, and the solar winds were mostly steady near 415 km/s. Phi remained
in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Lingering enhancements in the solar wind parameters are possible on 03
Feb as the suspected CH HSS influence diminishes and conditions begin
returning to a more background-like state by 04-05 Feb.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field observed an isolated active period during the
02/00-03Z synoptic period due to a sustained period of southward Bz.
Conditions then fell to quiet levels for the remainder of the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with
a chance for an isolated active period on 03 Feb. By mid to late day on
03 Feb, activity is expected to gradually diminish to mostly quiet
conditions as negative polarity CH HSS influence dissipates.
Space Weather Scales
Three Day Forecast
Issued: 2023 Feb 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 03-Feb 05 2023 is 2.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 03-Feb 05 2023

Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05
00-03UT 2.33 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 2.00 1.33 1.33
06-09UT 2.00 1.33 1.33
09-12UT 2.00 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 2.00 1.67 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 2.00 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 2.33 1.33 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 03-Feb 05 2023

Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 03-Feb 05 2023

Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Space Weather Scales
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2023 Feb 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 02-Feb 04 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 02-Feb 04 2023

Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb 04
00-03UT 3.67 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 1.67 1.33 1.33
06-09UT 0.67 1.33 1.33
09-12UT 1.00 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 2.00 1.33 1.67
15-18UT 1.67 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 2.33 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 3.00 1.67 1.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 02-Feb 04 2023

Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb 04
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 02-Feb 04 2023

Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb 04
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 02-04 Feb due to the flare potential of Region 3207.
Space Weather Scales
More Space Weather Information
Space Weather Data
About AIA Images
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes
Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.
Daily Image AIA 171
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 193
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV
Daily Image AIA 304
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II
Daily Video AIA 171
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model
Daily Video AIA 304
About the HMI Images
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager)
HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities.
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Daily Image HMI Continuum
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram
About LASCO Images
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk.
C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun.
C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun.
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Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Space Weather Videos



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