| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2025 Nov 17 1047 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5152 Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 17 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2025 Nov 17 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 16 November follow. Solar flux 132 and estimated planetary A-index 18. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 17 November was 1.33. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2025 Nov 17 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels. Recently numbered Region 4284 (S07W12, Dai/beta) grew into the most complex region on the visible disk. It produced an impulsive C7.5/SF flare at 17/0130 UTC, the strongest of the period. The remaining spotted active regions were simple and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with slight chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over 17-19 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to trend closer to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be at moderate levels over 17-19 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels through 19 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected mildly enhanced conditions. Total magnetic field strength was between 2-7 nT. No significant periods of sustained southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from ~625 km/s to ~525 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be elevated over 17 Nov under waning influence from the transient and the transition to a negative polarity CH HSS. Continued enhancements in the solar wind parameters are likely to persist from coronal hole influence over 18-19 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17 Nov due to a combination of waning effects from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the continued influence from a negative polarity coronal hole. Unsettled to active conditions are likely to set in over 18 Nov, with activity expected to decrease to mostly unsettled levels on 19 Nov during the waning phase of the CH HSS. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2025 Nov 17 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 00-03UT 4.00 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 3.00 3.67 2.00 06-09UT 2.67 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.33 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 4.00 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible on 17 Nov due to coronal hole influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 R1-R2 15% 15% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 17-19 Nov. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2025 Nov 17 0337 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 November 2025 Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 4274 (N24, L=275, class/area Ekc/1100 on 11 Nov) was the largest and most complex, and responsible for the majority of the major events during the past week. During the week, Region 4274 produced a total of 72 C-class, 5 M-class and 3 X-class flares. Region 4276 (S17, L=240, class/area Dai/180 on 07 Nov) produced 10 C-class flares. Regions 4277 (S06, L=239, class/area Dai/150 on 09 Nov), 4279 (S13, L=207, class/area Hsx/030 on 11 Nov) and 4281 (S14, L=289, class/area on 14 Nov) all produced 1 C-class flare. Newly numbered Region 4284 (S07, L=177, class/area Dso/060 on 16 Nov) produced three C-class flares late in the period. On 10 Nov, high levels (R3/Strong) were observed due to a long duration X1.2/2B flare observed from Region 4274 at 10/0919 UTC. Associated with this event was a Castelli U radio event, a 1,311 km/s Type II and a Type IV sweep and a 860 km/s Tenflare. Also associated with this event was an asymmetric-halo CME with the bulk of the ejecta off the NW limb. Modelling of the event indicated an arrival early on 12 Nov. High activity levels continued on 11 Nov, when Region 4274 produced an X5.1/3B flare at 11/1004 UTC. Associated with this event was a Castelli U radio event, a 1,350 km/s Type II sweep and a 10,000 sfu Tenflare. An associated asymmetric-halo CME was observed with the bulk of the ejecta having a NW bias. Modeling of the CME indicated an arrival time of middle to late on 12 Nov. Low levels were observed on 12-13 Nov. High solar activity was again observed on 14 Nov following a X4.0/3b flare from Region 4274 at 14/0830 UTC. Associated with this event was a Castelli U radio event, a Type IV sweep and a 1,100 sfu Tenflare. An associated CME was visible in LASCO C2 imagery off the W limb starting at about 14/0800 UTC. Analysis and modelling of the event indicated that the main body of the ejecta should be well ahead of Earth. However, modeling of the halo portion indicated a possible Earth impact late on 15 Nov to early on 16 Nov. As region 4274 exited the NW limb, it produced a parting M3.1 (R1-Minor) flare at 16/0817 UTC. The greater than 10 Mev at 10 pfu protons at geosynchronous orbit exceeded S1-S3 (Minor-Strong) levels two times during the period. The first 10 Mev event began at 10/1030 UTC, reached a peak of 1,456 pfu at 12/0215 UTC and ended at 12/2100 UTC. The second, smaller 10 pfu event began at 14/0920 UTC, reached a peak of 16.5 pfu at 14/0950 UTC and ended at 14/1325 UTC. The greater than 100 Mev at 1 pfu protons at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold. The greater than 100 Mev event began at 11/1100 UTC, reached a peak of 37 pfu at 12/0150 UTC and ended at 12/0925 UTC. All of these particle events were associated with the previously described X-class flare events. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 10-13 Nov with a peak of 10,090 pfu exceeded at 11/1220 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were reached on 14-16 Nov. Geomagnetic field activity was between quiet to G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm levels. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 10-11 Nov due to enhanced HSS influence on 10 Nov into mid 11 Nov. About midday on 11 Nov, an IP shock passage was observed, likely the arrival of the 09-10 Nov CMEs. On 12-13 Nov, solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a CME that left the Sun on 10 Nov. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 63 nT, while the Bz component reached as far south as -55 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to a peak of about 740 km/s late on 11 Nov. Late on 12 Nov, solar wind speeds reached peaks near 1,000 km/s. During 12 Nov, the geomagnetic field was at G1 (Minor) to G4 (Severe) levels while 13 Nov, activity levels decreased to quiet to G3 (Strong) levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 14-15 Nov. 16 Nov saw unsettled to active levels due to minor enhancements from the 14 Nov CME. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 November - 13 December 2025 Solar activity is likely to be at R1 (Minor) levels on 12-27 Nov and 13 Dec. Levels are likely to increase to R1-R3 (Minor-Strong) levels on 28 Nov-30 Nov and 01-12 Dec, primarily due to the flare potential and return of old Region 4274 (N24, L=275). No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels over 18-19, 22-23 and 27-30 Nov and 01-02 and 07-12 Dec, all due to coronal hole influence. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 17 Nov due to anticipated influence both a negative polarity CH HSS and waning remnants from a CME. G2 (Moderate) levels are likely on 26 Nov, 03 Dec and 13 Dec due to CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on 18-19, 21-22, 24-25 and 27-30 Nov and 01-02 and 04-07 Dec, all due to CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 20 and 23 Nov and 08-12 Dec. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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