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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2025 Dec 04 2129 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Dec 05: None (Below G1) Dec 06: None (Below G1) Dec 07: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 05 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 04 December follow. Solar flux 220 and estimated planetary A-index 32. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 05 December was 2.33. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 05 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decayed to low levels. Region 4294 (S15W02, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) displayed some minor weakening spot numbers and area where C3.8/Sf and C3.9/Sf were observed at 04/1805 UTC and 05/0011 UTC, respectively. Region 4296 (S14E17, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) showed some very little changes. This region produced a few C-class flares on the 4th, the largest a C6.8/Sn at 04/2324 UTC. C-class activity was observed from Region 4298 (S18W17, Cso/beta) and Region 4299 (N21E22, Dso/beta-delta). Both regions showed little change. New Region 4302 (S04W78, Hsx/alpha) emerged this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed from available LASCO imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares are expected (75%) through 07 Dec, with a chance for X-class flares (30%), given past flare history and the potential of current active regions on the disk. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels on 05 Dec. High levels are likely on 06-07 Dec due to elevated solar wind speeds associated with the ongoing CH HSS. A slight chance (15%) exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement above 10 pfu (S1-Minor) through 07 Dec due to the eruptive potential of multiple active regions across the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from CIR to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was steady at 7-9 nT, while the Bz component was at -8-9 nt early in the period, but -3-4 nT after 04/2000 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to peaks of near 770 km/s early, but slowly decreased to 600-690 km/s after 05/0200 UTC. Phi was predominantly oriented in a negative solar sector. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is anticipated to remain disturbed by negative polarity CH/HSS influences over 05-07 Dec. An additional enhancement is likely late on 07 Dec due to glancing effects from the 04 Dec CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels due to negative polarity coronal hole influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, over 05-06 Dec as influence from the coronal hole wanes. G1 geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 07 Dec due to the anticipated onset of influence from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 05 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 05-Dec 07 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 05-Dec 07 2025 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 00-03UT 3.33 3.67 2.67 03-06UT 3.33 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 3.33 2.00 2.33 09-12UT 2.33 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 3.33 2.67 2.33 15-18UT 3.33 2.67 3.67 18-21UT 3.33 2.67 5.00 (G1) 21-00UT 3.33 3.00 4.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 07 Dec due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influences and glancing effects from the 04 Dec CME. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 05-Dec 07 2025 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm conditions on 05-07 Dec. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 05-Dec 07 2025 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 05-07 Dec. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 01 0212 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 November 2025 Solar activity was at low levels over 24-27 and 30 Nov with C-class flare activity observed. High levels of solar activity were observed on 28 Nov when Region 4294 (S15, L=293, class/area=Fkc/1100 on 30 Nov) produced an impulsive M5.9 flare (R2-Moderate) at 28/2222 UTC, with Type-II (828 km/s) and Tenflare (240 sfu) radio emissions, as the region rotated onto the disk from the SE limb. Solar activity reached high levels again on 29 Nov with six M-class flares (R1-Minor) observed from Region 4294. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the summary period. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was a normal to moderate levels on 24-27 Nov, with high levels observed on 28-30 Nov. Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 24 Nov, and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 25 Nov, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active levels were observed again on 26 Nov as negative polarity CH HSS influences subsided, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming were observed on 27 Nov, with periods of active conditions observed over 28-30 Nov, due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 December - 27 December 2025 Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels during the outlook period. M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with slight chance for X-flares (R3-Strong or greater), through 12 Dec due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4294. There exists a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 12 Dec, due primarily to the eruptive potential of Region 4294. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 01-06, 16-17, and 24-27 Dec. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Geomagnetic activity is likely to reach active levels on 03 and 06 Dec, and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 04-05 Dec, driven by influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. Additional G1 storm periods are likely on 13 Dec, with active levels likely on 14 Dec, again associated with negative polarity CH HSS effects. Active conditions are likely on 21 Dec, followed by G1 storm levels on 22 Dec, in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Further G1 storm periods are likely on 23-26 Dec, with active levels likely on 27 Dec, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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