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Issue Time: 2025 Sep 16 1155 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5080 Valid From: 2025 Sep 14 2015 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Sep 16 2100 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2025 Sep 16 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 15 September follow. Solar flux 130 and estimated planetary A-index 48. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 16 September was 3.67. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2025 Sep 16 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Low level C-class flaring was observed from Regions 4216 (N10E17, Dai/beta), 4217 (S17E51, Dao/beta), and from Region 4213 (S14, L=003) just beyond the SW limb. Slight growth was observed in all spotted regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for an isolated M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), through 18 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 16-18 Sep due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 18 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of CIR/CH HSS influences. Solar wind speed increased to near 760 km/s early on 15 Sep before subsiding to between 600-700 km/s. Total field decreased from 14 to 5 nT. Phi angle was negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed is likely to gradually diminish on 17-18 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at active to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CIR/CH HSS effects. .Forecast... Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming, with a chance for G2 (Moderate), is expected on 16 Sep as HSS effects persist. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 17 Sep followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 18 Sep as HSS conditions gradually diminish. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2025 Sep 16 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 16-Sep 18 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 16-Sep 18 2025 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 2.67 2.33 03-06UT 3.67 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 3.67 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 3.67 3.33 2.33 12-15UT 3.33 1.67 1.67 15-18UT 3.00 1.67 1.67 18-21UT 3.67 2.33 2.00 21-00UT 3.33 2.67 2.33 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are expected through midday on 16 Sep due to negative polarity CH HSS influences, in addition to possible influence from the 11 Sep CME if it passes in close proximity to Earth. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2025 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2025 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 R1-R2 30% 30% 30% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2025 Sep 15 0137 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 September 2025 Solar activity was at low levels with only C-Class flares observed. The largest flare of the period was a C7.6 from Region 4207 (N28, L=48, class/area=Cso/80 on 11 Sep) at 11/1521 UTC. No significant CME activity was observed. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 09, 13, and 14 Sep due to influences from multiple coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS). Normal to moderate levels were observed on 08, 10, 11, and 12 Sep. Geomagnetic field activity reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 09 Sep due to sustained period of southward Bz. G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed on 14 Sep due to influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active levels were observed on the remaining days of the highlight period. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 September - 11 October 2025 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for isolated M-class flares throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 18-21 Sep and 06-11 Oct due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 15 Sep due to influences from negative polarity CH HSS. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 16 Sep, 28-29 Sep, 03-07 Oct, and 11 Oct all due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remaining days in the outlook period. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
| Currently No Data AIA 171 PFSS Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX | |
| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
| Currently No Data PFSS Video | |
| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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