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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2025 Oct 23 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 22 October follow. Solar flux 133 and estimated planetary A-index 4. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 23 October was 1.33. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2025 Oct 23 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels, with ten numbered active regions on the visible solar disk, all with simple magnetic complexity (alpha or beta), presenting mostly stability or decay during the period. An new region is rotating onto the east limb near N05E77, which has produced most of the low-level C-class activity this period. New Region 4265 (N12W15, Bxo/beta) was numbered and was inactive. A few filament eruptions were observed at SUVI 304A imagery during the period, but none presented associated CMEs (due to coronal reabsorption or source location being beyond the limb). Despite multiple CME signatures in coronagraph imagery, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a slight chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 25 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced due to the far-sided asymmetric halo CME that erupted yesterday, and reached a maximum of 3.62 pfu at 22/1030 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain mostly at normal to moderate levels through 25 Oct, with a chance of reaching high levels on the 23 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to remain slightly elevated, yet remain below alert thresholds, on 23-24 Oct. Conditions are expected return to background levels by 25 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind continued to slowly return to nominal levels as the influence of the negative polarity CH HSS wanes. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 22/0020 UTC. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1651 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/2031 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely to continue to return to nominal levels on day one with ambient-like values expected to persist through 24 Oct. A slightly enhanced solar wind environment is anticipated for 25 Oct as a weak, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet during the period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Oct, 24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Oct) due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2025 Oct 23 1232 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2025 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2025 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 00-03UT 2.00 1.67 2.67 03-06UT 1.00 1.33 2.67 06-09UT 0.33 1.33 2.33 09-12UT 1.00 1.33 2.33 12-15UT 1.00 1.33 2.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.33 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.00 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2025 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 S1 or greater 10% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels to be reached on 23 Oct associated with far-sided events. Chances diminish by 24-25 Oct. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2025 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 25 Oct Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2025 Oct 20 0159 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 October 2025 Solar activity was at moderate levels with 28 total M-class flares. 25 of these flares were produced by Region 4246 (N24, L=290, class/area=Ekc/840 on 16 Oct), the largest of which was an M4.8/Sf at 15/0415 UTC. Several of the flares from this region were the source of partially Earth-directed CMEs as flanking ejecta impacted the near-Earth environment on 17-18 Oct. Region 4248 (N07, L=261, class/area=Eki/310 on 15 Oct) also produced an M2.0 flare at 14/1247 UTC. These regions were classified as beta-gamma-delta. The remaining regions during this highlight period produced C-class activity but were otherwise unremarkable. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 13-17 Oct due in response to an extended period of coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences. Normal to moderate levels were reached on 18-19 Oct. Geomagnetic field activity reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels and periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels on 18 Oct, and an early period of G1 storm levels on 19 Oct due to influences from what was possibly combined CMEs that left the Sun between 13-15 Oct. G1 storm levels were also observed on 13 Oct due to CH HSS influences. An isolated active period was observed on 15 Oct due to declining CH HSS influence and . Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 14, 16-17 Oct. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 October - 15 November 2025 Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels on 31 Oct - 15 Nov due to the return of Region 4246. Low levels are expected to prevail on 20 Oct - 30 Oct, and 14-15 Nov. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-25 Oct, and 29 Oct - 15 Nov due to responses from recurent CH HSS influences . Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 28-30 Oct and 08-09, and 15 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Isolated active periods are expeced on 20, 31 Oct, and 07 Nov also due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled levels are expeced on the remaining days of the outlook period. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
| Currently No Data AIA 171 PFSS Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX | |
| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
| Currently No Data PFSS Video | |
| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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