. Scientific Frontline: Space Weather

Space Weather

Warnings
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4830
Issue Time: 2025 Feb 13 0527 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Feb 13 0527 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Feb 13 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Scales
Current Condition and Alerts
Issued: 2025 Feb 13 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Geophysical Alert Message

Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 February follow.
Solar flux 166 and estimated planetary A-index 16.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 13 February was 4.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.
Space Weather Scales
Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Feb 13 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to R1-Minor levels due to an impulsive M1.0
flare at 13/1109 UTC from Region 3992 (S06W17, Dai/beta-gamma). This
region also produced C-class activity. The region continued to develop
quickly and increase in magnetic complexity. C-class activity was also
observed from Region 3990 (S09E33, Cko/beta). All other numbered regions
were stable and quiet.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) activity on 13-15 Feb.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 2,050 pfu observed at 12/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate
to high levels through 15 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels through 15 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was enhanced by negative polarity CH HSS
influences. Total field Bt remained mostly steady near 6 nT, while the
Bz component varied between +/-6 nT. Wind speeds remained mostly steady
between about 500-550 km/s. The Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced on 13-15 Feb due
to onset and influence from the next negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to negative
polarity CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely on 13 Feb due to onset of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 14-15
Feb as CH influence continues.
Space Weather Scales
Three Day Forecast
Issued: 2025 Feb 13 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2025

Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15
00-03UT 3.33 3.33 2.33
03-06UT 4.33 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 3.67 2.00 2.67
09-12UT 4.00 3.00 2.33
12-15UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
15-18UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
18-21UT 3.67 3.33 2.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 4.00 2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely on 13 Feb due to onset of
a subsequent negative polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 13-Feb 15 2025

Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15
S1 or greater 5% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 13 2025 1109 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 13-Feb 15 2025

Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity on 13-15 Feb.
Space Weather Scales
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2025 Feb 10 0046 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 - 09 February 2025

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3981 (N07, L=341,
class/area=Ekc/430 on 05 Feb) was the most active region on the
disk. AR 3981 produced an M8.8 flare at 03/0358 UTC, the largest
event of the period, in addition to several R1 and R2 events
throughout the course of the week. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 08 Feb, and G1
(Minor) levels on 09 Feb, due to a SSBC followed by the onset of
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled
conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 February - 08 March 2025

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels throughout
the period. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight
chance for R3 or greater events.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 10, 13, and 28 Feb, and active levels are expected on
11-12 Feb, and 01 Mar due to CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to
unsettled conditions are likely to prevail throughout the remainder
of the period.
Space Weather Scales
About AIA Images
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes
Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.
Daily Image AIA 171
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 193
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV
Daily Image AIA 304
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II
Daily Video AIA 171
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model
Daily Video AIA 193
Daily Video AIA 304
About the HMI Images
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager)
HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities.
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Daily Image HMI Continuum
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram
About LASCO Images
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk.
C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun.
C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun.
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Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Space Weather Videos
Space Weather Information
Demystifying Space Weather
An article by Scientific Frontline
Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather”

Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society.



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