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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2025 Dec 01 0459 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 3567 Begin Time: 2025 Nov 25 1450 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 8310 pfu Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issue Time: 2025 Dec 01 0403 UTC ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2025 Dec 01 0319 UTC Estimated Velocity: 490 km/s Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 01 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 November follow. Solar flux 180 and estimated planetary A-index 16. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 01 December was 2.00. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 01 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels due to an X1.9 (R3-Strong) flare observed from new Region 4299 (N22E75, Hsx/alpha). Associated with this event was a Castelli U radio burst, a 988 km/s Type II sweep and a Type IV sweep. The event produced a rapid, partial-halo CME observed off the NE limb, however, initial analysis and model output determined no Earth-directed component. The large sunspot group, 4294 (S15E52, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta), was split into three groups based on magnetic complexity. New Region 4298 (S16E39, Hsx/alpha) was numbered ahead of the large group Region 4294. New Region 4296 (S14E69, Hsx/alpha) was numbered just to the east of Region 4294. New Region 4297 (S12W08, Bxo/beta) was also numbered. A other sunspot groups were quiet and unchanged. No additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong), over 01-03 Dec. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels, with a peak flux of 12,900 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 01-03 Dec. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels through 03 Dec due primarily from the X1.9 flare observed early on 01 Dec and from the eruptive potential from Region 4294. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-6 nT. Bz was primarily oriented southward. Solar wind speeds declined from ~625 km/s to near 475 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to wane over 01 Dec, followed by a return to at or near ambient levels over 02 Dec. Another enhancement in solar wind parameters from a negative polarity coronal hole is expected on 03 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels, with a chance for active levels, on 01 Dec as positive polarity CH HSS influences wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 02 Dec with the return of an ambient solar wind environment. Active conditions, with a chance for G1 (Minor), are likely with the anticipated onset of influence from a large, negative polarity coronal hole on 03 Dec. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 01 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 01-Dec 03 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 01-Dec 03 2025 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 00-03UT 4.00 1.33 3.00 03-06UT 1.00 1.33 3.67 06-09UT 1.67 1.67 3.00 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 3.00 12-15UT 1.67 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 0.67 1.33 2.67 18-21UT 0.67 1.67 3.00 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 01-Dec 03 2025 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels through 03 Dec, due primarily to the eruptive potential of Region2 4294 and 4299. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 01 2025 0249 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 01-Dec 03 2025 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 R1-R2 70% 70% 70% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, on 01-03 Dec. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 01 0212 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 November 2025 Solar activity was at low levels over 24-27 and 30 Nov with C-class flare activity observed. High levels of solar activity were observed on 28 Nov when Region 4294 (S15, L=293, class/area=Fkc/1100 on 30 Nov) produced an impulsive M5.9 flare (R2-Moderate) at 28/2222 UTC, with Type-II (828 km/s) and Tenflare (240 sfu) radio emissions, as the region rotated onto the disk from the SE limb. Solar activity reached high levels again on 29 Nov with six M-class flares (R1-Minor) observed from Region 4294. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the summary period. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was a normal to moderate levels on 24-27 Nov, with high levels observed on 28-30 Nov. Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 24 Nov, and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 25 Nov, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active levels were observed again on 26 Nov as negative polarity CH HSS influences subsided, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming were observed on 27 Nov, with periods of active conditions observed over 28-30 Nov, due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 December - 27 December 2025 Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels during the outlook period. M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with slight chance for X-flares (R3-Strong or greater), through 12 Dec due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4294. There exists a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 12 Dec, due primarily to the eruptive potential of Region 4294. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 01-06, 16-17, and 24-27 Dec. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Geomagnetic activity is likely to reach active levels on 03 and 06 Dec, and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 04-05 Dec, driven by influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. Additional G1 storm periods are likely on 13 Dec, with active levels likely on 14 Dec, again associated with negative polarity CH HSS effects. Active conditions are likely on 21 Dec, followed by G1 storm levels on 22 Dec, in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Further G1 storm periods are likely on 23-26 Dec, with active levels likely on 27 Dec, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
| No Current DATA AIA 171 PFSS Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX | |
| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
| NO CURRENT DATA PFSS Video | |
| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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