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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2025 Dec 09 1210 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 3574 Begin Time: 2025 Dec 05 1530 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1040 pfu Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 09 1210 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 08 December follow. Solar flux 186 and estimated planetary A-index 2. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 09 December was 1.00. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be strong. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are likely. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 09 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4298 (S16W64, Cso/beta) produced an impulsive X1.1/2b (R3-Strong) flare at 08/0501 UTC. Region 4299 (N22W25, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M2.4/2n (R1-Minor) flare at 08/0012 UTC and an M1.8/1n (R1-Minor) flare at 08/0654 UTC. Region 4294 (S16W42, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an an M2.0 flare at 08/0036 UTC and an M1.1 at 08/1305 UTC. Enhanced flux emergence in its leading spots and intermediate region brought about a larger area and sunspot count. This region also produced and M3.2 flare at 08/2117 UTC at the same time that Region 4304 was also flaring and possibly contributing to the observed X-ray enhancement. Similar situation happened at 08/2228 UTC, when an M1.2 was measured while both Regions 4294 and 4299 were simultaneously flaring. Eruptions from the M1.8/1n flare at 08/0012 UTC and the X1.1/2b flare at 08/0501 UTC both appeared to be reabsorbed with no discernible CME activity. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 09-11 Dec, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) This is based on past flare history and the potential of current active regions on the disk. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at high levels, reaching a peak of 1039 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at background. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 09 Dec, and then decrease to normal to moderate levels on 10-11 Dec. A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement above 10 pfu (S1/Minor) through 10 Dec due to the eruptive potential and history of multiple active regions across the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. There was a weak enhancement, but it rendered nothing. The total field remained around 7 nT with the Bz component oscillating between +/-3 nT. Solar wind speeds were between 340-440 km/s. The phi angle remained in the negative sector. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced due to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec. Expected arrival in 09 Dec, waning conditions are expected into 11 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels due to waning negative polarity coronal hole influences. .Forecast... G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 09 Dec due to the anticipated influence of the CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec. G1 conditions on 10 Dec are likely due to waning CME effects. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 09 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 09-Dec 11 2025 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 09-Dec 11 2025 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 00-03UT 2.33 5.33 (G1) 2.67 03-06UT 0.67 5.00 (G1) 2.00 06-09UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 2.33 09-12UT 1.00 4.33 2.33 12-15UT 6.67 (G3) 4.00 2.33 15-18UT 5.33 (G1) 3.67 2.33 18-21UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 2.33 21-00UT 3.67 1.33 2.67 Rationale: Periods of G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Dec, due to the anticipated influence of a CME from Dec 06. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 09-Dec 11 2025 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms on 09-11 Dec. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 08 2025 2117 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 09-Dec 11 2025 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 R1-R2 65% 65% 65% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events on 09-11 Dec. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 08 0210 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 December 2025 Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region 4299 (N21, L=268, class/area=Dai/220 on 07 Dec) produced an X1.9/1n flare at 01/0249 UTC; the strongest flare of the period. Other notable activity included an M8.1/2b flare at 06/2039 UTC, also from Region 4299, which produced an full-halo CME that is expected to arrive between late 08 Dec-midday 09 Dec. A CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 04/0648 UTC off the SE, arrived at Earth late on 07 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became elevated above background levels late 06 Dec-late 07 Dec following the M8.1 flare at 06/2039 UTC from AR4299, but did not reach event levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 04 Dec, with high levels obserbed throughout the remainder of the period. Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 01 Dec in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 02 Dec as CH HSS influences subsided. Periods of G1-G3 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming were observed on 03 Dec, with G1 storm periods observed on 04 Dec, due to CIR and negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed on 05 Dec, with active conditions observed on 06 Dec, as negative polarity CH HSS influences waned. Active levels were observed again on 07 Dec in response to the passage of a CME from 04 Dec. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 December - 03 January 2026 M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), through much of the outlook period. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach 10 pfu (S1-Minor) through much of the outlook period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 08-09, 12-13, 16-17, 25-29 Dec, and 01-03 Jan. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 08 and 10 Dec, with G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) storming likely on 09 Dec, due to the anticipated arrival and passage of a CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec. Periods of G1 storming are likely on 21-23 Dec in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences, and again on 24-26 Dec under positive polarity CH HSS influences. Period of G2 (Moderate) storms are likely on 30 Dec, with G1 storming likely on 31 Dec, when negative polarity CH HSS influences are anticipated. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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