California’s massive fire seasons in the past two years are part of a trend that scientists have traced back for more than four decades. The area consumed each year by fires has increased significantly over that period — particularly in the Sierra Nevada and northern parts of the state. Although Southern California has had its share of wildfires in that span, too, the region hasn’t experienced the same increase.
But that disparity between north and south is not likely to continue. The number of days per year with increased risk for more and larger wildfires in Southern California is projected to increase significantly through the end of the century, according to new UCLA-led research.
The study, which is published in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment, analyzes data dating to 1975. Researchers found no substantial increase in the amount of area burned per year over the past 45 years.