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Dead reef crest on Mexico's Caribbean coast. Photo Credit Chris Perry |
Most coral reefs will soon stop growing and may begin to erode – and almost all will do so if global warming hits 2°C, according to a new study in the western Atlantic.
An international team, led by scientists from the University of Exeter, assessed 400 reef sites around Florida, Mexico and Bonaire.
The study, published in the journal Nature, projects that more than 70% of the region’s reefs will stop growing by 2040 – and over 99% will do so by 2100 if warming reaches 2°C or more above pre-industrial levels.
Climate change – along with other issues such as coral disease and deteriorating water quality – reduces overall reef growth by killing corals and impacting colony growth rates.
To understand how changing reef ecology is impacting reef growth potential – in other words, how the balance of living organisms translates into vertical “accretion” (reef-building) – the team analysed fossil reefs from across the tropical western Atlantic region to improve understanding of how reef growth rates vary depending on the types of coral present.