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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Oct 18 1724 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Oct 19: G1 (Minor) Oct 20: G1 (Minor) Oct 21: None (Below G1) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 19 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 October follow. Solar flux 137 and estimated planetary A-index 6. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 19 October was 1.00. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 19 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached Moderate levels with an impulsive M1.6/1n flare peaked at 19/0903 UTC from Region 4551 (S15W59, Eki/beta-gamma). This region continued to be the largest and most complex on the visible disk and was also responsible for few low C-class flares during the period, including a C2.0/Sf at 19/0718 UTC. The other two active regions currently with sunspots are the 4557 (N06W21, Dai/beta) and the 4560 (N14E06, Dro/beta). The M1.6/1n flare was associated with a TenFlare with a peak flux of 430 sfu (more than 3x larger than the latest noon F10.7 full disk flux). An eruption observed at SUVI imagery around 18/2230 UTC resulted in a CME first observed off the SW limb at CCOR-2 imagery at 18/2315 UTC. Further quality coronagraph imagery are needed for this CME trajectory analysis. No Earth-directed CME was observed at the available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 21 Oct, with a chance (30%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance (10%) for X-class flares (R3-strong or greater) due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 4551 and 4557. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 21 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels, with no S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms through 21 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters returned to undisturbed levels in the past 24h. Total field (Bt) was around 5 nT with Bz component mostly positive. Solar wind speeds gradually declined from ~450 km/s to ~375 km/s by the end of the reporting periods. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to be disturbed by the anticipated influences of a positive polarity CH HSS late on 19 Oct. Elevated conditions are likely to persist through 21 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels in the past 24h. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 19-20 Oct due to anticipated effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are likely on 21 Oct as HSS effects wane. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 19 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 19-Oct 21 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 19-Oct 21 2026 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 00-03UT 0.33 4.33 3.33 03-06UT 0.33 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 0.33 3.67 3.00 09-12UT 1.00 3.00 2.67 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.33 15-18UT 3.67 3.00 2.00 18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 3.33 21-00UT 4.33 3.67 3.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely late 19 Oct and early 20 Oct due to the anticipated influences of a positive CH HSS. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 19-Oct 21 2026 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at 19/0903Z UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 19-Oct 21 2026 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 R1-R2 30% 30% 30% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts through 21 Oct, mostly due to the flare potential of Regions 4551 and 4557. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 19 0141 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 October 2026 Solar activity reached moderate levels on 16 Oct when Region 4551 (S15, L=102, class/area=Eki/620 on 15 Oct) produced an M1.3 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/1542 UTC, the largest flare of the week. Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity throughout the remainder of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 16 Oct, with normal to moderate levels observed throughout the remainder of the week. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on 12-15 and 17 Oct, with active levels observed on 16 Oct, due primarily to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions were observed on 18 Oct. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 October - 14 November 2026 Solar activity is expected to predominately low with M-class flare probabilities ranging between a slight chance to a chance throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23-27 Oct and 01-04 Nov, with normal to moderate levels likely the prevail throughout the remainder of the period. Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 19-20 Oct and 31 Oct-01 Nov, with active conditions likely on 21 and 24 Oct and 09 Nov, due to CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| Daily Video HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Video HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
| No LASCO Data | |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
| No LASCO Data | |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
| No LASCO Data | |
| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
