Warnings |
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial
Number: 991
Issue
Time: 2024 Mar 18 1011 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Mar 19: None (Below G1) Mar 20: G1 (Minor) Mar 21: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. Space Weather Scales |
Current Condition and Alerts |
Issued: 2024 Mar 18 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 17 March follow. Solar flux 151 and estimated planetary A-index 2. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 18 March was 2.00. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
Forecast Discussion |
Issued: 2024 Mar 18 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. The strongest event of the period was an M2.7 flare (R1-Minor) from Region 3612 (N22W88, Axx/alpha) as it rotated around the NW limb. An additional M1.0 flare was observed shortly after from Region 3614 (N16E62, Dai/beta) at 18/0415 UTC. Emerging flux was noted to the SW of Region 3608 (N11W18, Bxo/beta) and rotating around the SE limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low over 18-20 Mar, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background levels, but remained well below event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but below event levels on 18 Mar, and slowly return to background levels over 19-20 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speeds decreased from ~350 km/s to near 300 km/s by the end of the period. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in the positive sector. .Forecast... Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 18-19 Mar, and through the first half of 20 Mar. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected after midday on 20 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet over 18-19 Mar, and through the first half of 20 Mar. Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely during the latter half of 20 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption. Space Weather Scales |
Three Day Forecast |
Issued: 2024 Mar 18 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 18-Mar 20 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 18-Mar 20 2024 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 00-03UT 0.33 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 0.33 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 0.67 1.67 1.67 09-12UT 2.00 1.00 3.00 12-15UT 1.00 0.67 3.67 15-18UT 1.00 0.67 3.67 18-21UT 1.33 1.67 4.00 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.67 (G1) Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 20 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 17 Mar. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 18-Mar 20 2024 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 18 2024 0332 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 18-Mar 20 2024 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over the next three days. Space Weather Scales |
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts |
Issued: 2024 Mar 18 0617 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 March 2024 Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were reached on 14 Mar due to an M1.0/sf flare at 14/0604 UTC from Region 3599 (S12, L=065, class/area Dao/230 on 12 Mar). On 16 Mar, Moderate levels were once again seen as an M3.5 and an M1.1 occurred at 16/1635 UTC and 16/2155 UTC from a region just beyond the SE limb. Region 3599 was also responsible for a series of CMEs just beyond the SW limb which occurred at 15/0210 UTC and 15/0328 UTC. Modelling of the event indicated no Earth-directed component, however, an associated minor solar radiation storm (S1) was observed. Other activity included an approximate 35 degree filament channel eruption centered near S28W25 beginning at 17/0100 UTC. Two subsequent CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery off the SSE and SW limbs at 17/0312 UTC and 17/0336 UTC, respectively. Modelling indicated possible glancing blows late on 20 Mar to early on 21 Mar. A greater than 10 MeV proton event above the 10 pfu (S1/Minor) threshold as a result of activity from Region 3599 beyond the SW limb early on 15 Mar. The event began at 15/2050 UTC, reached a peak flux of 16.7 pfu at 16/0635 UTC, and ended at 16/1505 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 11 Mar due to CH HSS influence. A peak of 1,420 pfu was observed at 11/1605 UTC. Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed decreased on 11 Mar as weak negative polarity CH HSS influence diminished. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed midday on 11 Mar followed by another mild increase in solar wind speed and total field on 12-13 Mar. Solar wind speed reached a maximum around 484 km/s by 14/1350 UTC with total field near 9 nT early on 14 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled periods on 12 and 14 Mar and an isolated active period early on 15 Mar. Solar wind speed slowly decreased around 290 km/s with total field values below 5 nT by the end of the period. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 March - 13 April 2024 There is a chance for moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels through 31 Mar, mainly due to the flare potential of Region 3614 (N16, L=223, class/area Hax/080 on 17 Mar) and an unnumbered region rotating onto the SE limb. Low levels with a slight chance of M-class flares are likely on 01-13 Apr. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 07-08 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with G1 (Minor) storming likely, on 20-21 Mar due to activity from the 17 Mar CMEs. Unsettled levels are expected on 28-29 Mar, 03-05 Apr, and 09-11 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Space Weather Scales |
About AIA Images |
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
Daily Image AIA 171 |
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX |
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model |
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX |
Daily Image AIA 193 |
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV |
Daily Image AIA 304 |
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II |
Daily Video AIA 171 |
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model |
Daily Video AIA 193 |
Daily Video AIA 304 |
About the HMI Images |
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
Daily Image HMI Continuum |
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram |
About LASCO Images |
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
Space Weather Videos |