Space Weather

Warnings and Alerts

Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 1145 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected Extension to Serial Number: 614 Valid From: 2025 Nov 10 1030 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 13 2100 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 0732 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Extension to Serial Number: 2136 Valid From: 2025 Nov 11 2343 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 13 2100 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. Space Weather Scales

Current Condition and Alerts

Issued: 2025 Nov 13 1205 UTC Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 November follow. Solar flux 163 and estimated planetary A-index 127. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 13 November was 4.00. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be severe. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G4 level are likely. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected. Space Weather Scales

Forecast Discussion

Issued: 2025 Nov 13 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4274 (N24W58, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for multiple low to mid level C-class flares. The largest was a C6.1/Sf at 13/0334 UTC. Slight decay was observed in Region 4274. Motion along the inversion lines was minimal within the group. The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be high, with R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) expected and X-class (R3-Strong) activity likely on 13-15 Nov, mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4274. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux started the period at high levels, with a maximum of 2,210 pfu at 12/0200 UTC, and returned to moderate levels shortly after 12/0540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated at S3 (Strong) level through 12/2230 UTC and subsided to S1 (Minor) levels (13 pfu) shortly thereafter. The greater than 100 MeV protons continued to decrease toward background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 13 Nov with a chance for high levels on 14-15 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue above S1 (Minor) levels through late on 13 Nov. There is a chance for S1 levels to persist through 15 Nov. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to trend down toward background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters began the period strongly enhanced from the arrival of the 09-10 Nov CMEs. Solar wind speeds were initially around 730 km/s before the instrument began to show signs of contamination and became unreliable until 12/1000 UTC. Total field reached a high of 63 nT at 12/0035 UTC with the Bz component reaching a maximum southward deflection of -52 nT. Total field continued around 18-43 nT thereafter with periods of southward Bz near -28 nT. Total field began to decrease after 12/1115 UTC until the arrival of the 11 Nov CME at 12/1853 UTC. Total field only had a lesser increase with the shock arrival to near 35-40 nT, however calculations of the arrival time between DSCOVR spacecraft and the sudden impulse observed at the magnetometers indicated a speed near 1,100 km/s. Total field decreased to near 12 nT with the Bz component mostly northward at the time of this report. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters is expected to continue to be enhanced on 13 Nov as CME activity persists. A slow rotation of the Bz component into a negative sector is likely on 13 Nov couple with enhanced solar wind speeds near 800-900 km/s. Activity is expected to gradually subside later on 13 Nov through 14 Nov. A return to near nominal levels is likely on 15 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storming levels due to activity associated with the arrival of the 09-11 Nov CMEs. Strong storm levels were observed between 13/00-06 UTC. .Forecast... Isolated G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storm levels are possible through 13 Nov depending on the orientation (negative Bz component) and magnitude (Bt) of the magnetic field coupled with higher solar wind speeds. A steady decrease in activity is likely through through 14 Nov. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected by 15 Nov. Space Weather Scales

Three Day Forecast

Issued: 2025 Nov 13 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 6.67 (G3) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 4.00 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 6.67 (G3) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13 Nov. G1 storm levels are likely on 14 Nov, followed by quiet to active periods until 15 Nov, as the CME ongoing effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through the remaining hours of 13 Nov before slowly decreasing to background levels over 14-15 Nov as CME influences wanes. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 80% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) radio blackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 rotates out of the solar disk in the next few days. Space Weather Scales

Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

Issued: 2025 Nov 10 0522 UTC Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 November 2025 Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 4274 (N25, L=275, class/area=Ekc/900 on 09 Nov) was the largest and most complex, and responsible for the majority of major events during the past week. On 03 Nov, high levels were observed due to five M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares that were produced by Region 4274. Two flares had associated CMEs that were identified as containing potentially Earth-directed components, an M1.6 (R1) at 03/0925 UTC and an M5.0 (R2)at 03/1011 UTC. Arrival of the CMEs at Earth were estimated over 06-07 Nov. High activity levels continued on 04 Nov, with the high flare being an X1.8/1b (R3-Strong) flare at 04/1751 UTC from Region 4274. Associated with the flare was a Tenflare and Type IV radio sweep. Region 4276 (S17, L=240, class/area=Dai/180 on 07 Nov) also produced an X-class flare (R3) with an X1.1 flare at 04/2201 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep and CME. Analysis of the ejecta from these events suggested potential to affect Earth over 06-07 Nov. High solar activity was again observed on 05 Nov following an M 7.4/2N (R2) flare at 05/1119 UTC and an M8.6/2B (R2) flare at 05/2207 UTC from Region 4274. Tenflares and CMEs were associated with both events. Arrival at Earth was estimated over 07-08 Nov. Moderate levels were observed on 06-07 Nov due to an M1.1 (R1) flare at 06/0431 UTC from Region 4276 and an M1.7/1n (R1) at 07/0716 UTC flare from Region 4274. Associated with the M1.7 was a Type II (est 1,169 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep alongside a CME that was likely to propogate off of the Sun-Earth line. Low solar activity was observed on 08 Nov. Finally, on 09 Nov, Region 4274 produced an X1.7 (R3) flare at 09/0735 UTC. A complicated CME signature was observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery. Analysis and modelling of the event suggested potential for arrival at Earth over 11-12 Nov. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit between 03-09 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 03-05 Nov and at moderate levels on 06-09 Nov. The maximum flux of the greater than 2 MeV electrons measured by GOES-19 satellite during the week was 2,440 pfu at 04/1805 UTC. Geomagnetic field activity was between quiet to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels. Active conditions on 03 Nov were observed due to weak influence from a CME that left the Sun on 31 Oct. Unsettled conditions were observed on 04 Oct due to positive polarity coronal hole influence. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions late on 05 Nov and G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions early on 06 Nov resulted from the onset of a CME that left the Sun on 03 Nov. G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed late on 06 Nov and in to 07 Nov as more CMEs that left the Sun over 03-04 Nov passed by Earth. G2 conditions were again observed on 08 Nov due to the passage of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Nov. Only quiet to unsettled condtions were observed on 09 Nov. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 November - 06 December 2025 Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-Minor), with a chance for high (R2-R3/Moderate-Strong), over 10-18 Nov, primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 4274 and 4276. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at low levels, with a chance for moderate activity. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels over 10-13 Nov following a combination of CME and coronal hole influence. High levels are again likely on 27 Nov-02 Dec due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 11 Nov due to anticipated influence from both a negative polarity coronal hole and a CME that left the Sun 07 Nov. G2 conditions are likely on 11-12 Nov due to anticipated influence from CMEs that left the Sun on 09 Nov. Unsettled conditions are likely over 13 Nov as CME influence wanes. Recurrent coronal hole influence is likely to cause G1 conditions over 25-27 Nov and 02-04 Dec; active condition on 20 Nov, 24 Nov, 29-30 Nov, and 05 Dec; unsettled conditions on 16 Nov, 21 Nov, 28 Nov, 01 Dec, and 06 Dec. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. Space Weather Scales

About AIA Images

The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.

Daily Image AIA 171

Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX

Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model

Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX

Daily Image AIA 193

Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV

Daily Image AIA 304

Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s) 304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II

Daily Video AIA 171

Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model

Daily Video AIA 193

Daily Video AIA 304

About the HMI Images

(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.

Daily Image HMI Continuum

Daily Image HMI Magnetogram

About LASCO Images

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.

Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304

Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304

Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video

Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video

Space Weather Videos

Space Weather Information

Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society.