| Warnings |
| No Current Warnings Space Weather Scales |
| Current Condition and Alerts |
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Issued: 2023 May 18 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 17 May follow. Solar flux 138 and estimated planetary A-index 4. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 18 May was 1.00. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
| Forecast Discussion |
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Issued: 2023 May 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels with M-class activity from an unnumbered region on the NE limb. Region 3310 (S20E68, Dho/Beta) was numbered this period and responsible for a few lower level C-class flares. Region 3305 (N12W36, Dai/Beta-Gamma) continued a slow trend of overall decay while Region 3308 (N12W20, Cro/Beta) exhibited slight growth with maturing leading spots developing rudimentary penumbra. Region 3309 (S18W53, Cro/Beta) produced at C4.3/SF flare at 17/1530 UTC. Associated with this event was a type II radio sweep which began at 17/1522 and measured 343 km/s. The resulting CME was first seen by SOHO-NASA C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 17/1636 UTC. Although a glancing blow at Earth around late on 21 May is not out of the question, an Earth-directed component is not likely. A subsequent CME was observed that is likely from a filament eruption in the same general area. This CME was modeled with the result of a possible glancing blow on 21 May. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class flare activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 20 May. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, although ever so slightly enhanced likely due to the large far side event from the 16th, remained well below NOAA scale thresholds and even below 1 pfu. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 20 May. .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment returned to a near background-like state. Total field was primarily 4-5 nT, the Bz component was northward or near neutral, and wind speeds decreased from ~450 km/s to near 430 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... A benign solar wind environment is expected to continue through 19 May. On 20 May, weak enhancements in the solar wind are likely due to a pair of equatorial CHs. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected through 19 May. Isolated unsettled periods are likely to commence on 20 May under weak CH HSS effects. Space Weather Scales |
| Three Day Forecast |
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Issued: 2023 May 18 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 18-May 20 2023 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 18-May 20 2023 May 18 May 19 May 20 00-03UT 0.67 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 1.33 1.67 2.67 06-09UT 0.67 1.33 2.00 09-12UT 1.00 1.33 2.00 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.33 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.67 21-00UT 1.67 1.33 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 18-May 20 2023 May 18 May 19 May 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 18 2023 1147 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 18-May 20 2023 May 18 May 19 May 20 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 18-20 May. Space Weather Scales |
| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts |
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Issued: 2023 May 15 0254 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 May 2023 Solar activity reached high levels on 09 May and moderate levels on 08, 10, and 11 May. In total, nine M-class flares were observed from three sunspot regions this period. Region 3296 (N15, L=140, class/area=Ekc/290 on 10 May) was the most active sunspot region and produced two R2 (Moderate) events and four R1 (Minor) events. Region 3294 (S07, L=125, class/area=Cso/130 on 11 May) produced two R1 events and Region 3293 (N13, L=149, class/area=Dhc/290 on 03 May) produced a single R1 event. Two solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with this weeks activity were observed as were multiple Earth-directed CMEs; see below for more information. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) storm levels in two distinct SEP events. The first SEP event followed a pair of long-duration M1 flares (at 07/2234 UTC and 07/2323 UTC) from Region 3296 and reached S1 levels at 08/1240 UTC, reached a peak of 38 pfu at 09/0150 UTC, and ended at 09/1235 UTC. The second SEP event followed an M4 flare at 09/1858 UTC from Region 3296 and reached S1 levels at 09/2335 UTC, reached a peak of 83 pfu at 10/1250 UTC, and ended at 11/0405 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the week. Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) levels on 08 May due to the continued (at the time) influence of CMEs (from 05 May) that arrived on 07 May. G1 (Minor) storms were observed again on 09-10 May due to the arrival of CMEs that resulted from a pair of long-duration M1 flares (at 07/2234 UTC and 07/2323 UTC) from Region 3296. G1 (Minor) storms were observed on 12 May due to the arrival of a CME that resulted from an M4 flare at 09/1858 UTC from Region 3296. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 May - 10 June 2023 Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23 May-02 Jun, with normal to moderate levels expected for the remainder of the period. Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach active levels on 16 May due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 12 May. G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 24 May, with active levels likely on 23, 25-26 May, due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 02 Jun in response to recurrent positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Space Weather Scales |
| More Space Weather Information |
| Space Weather Data |
| About AIA Images |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes. PFSS Models The outgoing sections of field lines close to the solar surface are drawn in red, the incoming sections in blue. Alternatively, a fixed color scheme is used, where coronal loops are drawn in white, open field lines that are outgoing in red, and incoming in blue. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Daily Image AIA 171 |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 |
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| About the HMI Images |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram |
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| About LASCO Images |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 171 |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 171 |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
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| Space Weather Videos |
