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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Oct 22 0532 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5438 Valid From: 2026 Oct 21 1616 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Oct 22 1500 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 22 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 21 October follow. Solar flux 115 and estimated planetary A-index 19. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 22 October was 4.33. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 22 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels, with the largest flare of the period a C3.5 at 22/0304 UTC from Region 4560 (N13W35, Eai/beta-gamma), which continued to exhibit growth in its intermediary region. Region 4557 (N07W61, Dao/beta) continued a gradual state of decay, primarily in its intermediate and trailing spots and sparked a handful of B-level enhancements to the X-ray flux. While Region 4551 (S16W90, Eko/beta-gamma) was still on disk for this reporting period, its proximity to the western limb is causing severe foreshortening effects, so while the region appeared to be relatively stable, this analysis is low confidence. A CME observed after 21/0900 UTC in LASCO C2 originated from dimming just southeastward of the northern negative polar CH cap, centered near N28E05, as observed in SUVI 195 imagery beginning at approximately 21/0830 UTC. Another CME with similar dimming in the northern hemisphere was observed beginning around 21/20:35 UTC in LASCO C2. Modeling of these two events indicates little to no interaction between the two, and while the second is likely to pass entirely above Earth orbit, the first has potential for a weak glancing blow to Earth on 25 or 26 Oct. However, confidence is low in this outcome given the extended range of the forecast and that a bulk of the material should pass well behind Earths orbit. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 24 Oct, with a slight chance (15-20%) for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 22 Oct with a chance to reach high levels on 23-24 Oct due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels, with no S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms expected through 24 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field began the period around 10 nT and gradually decreased throughout, ending the period at around 7 nT. The Bz (north-south) component was largely southward, with several intervals of sustained deflections of up to -5 to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked near 525 km/s at 21/1445 UTC before decreasing slightly to an average of 460 km/s, which was largely maintained for the remainder of the reporting period. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away from the Sun). .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 22 Oct before beginning a waning trend towards a background-like environment on 23 Oct. A return to disturbed conditions is expected on 24 Oct due to negative polarity CH HSS onset. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS activity. .Forecast... Mostly unsettled conditions at expected in the later half of 22 Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are then expected on 23 Oct before giving way to unsettled to active conditions once again on 24 Oct as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 22 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2026 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 00-03UT 2.33 2.33 2.33 03-06UT 3.00 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 3.00 1.67 1.67 09-12UT 3.33 1.00 1.33 12-15UT 3.67 1.33 3.00 15-18UT 2.00 1.67 3.67 18-21UT 2.33 2.00 4.33 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected through 24 Oct, though a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to produce a disturbed near-Earth environment on 24 Oct. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2026 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected through 24 Oct. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2026 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 R1-R2 20% 15% 15% R3 or greater 5% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 24 Oct, decreasing as Region 4551 transits the west limb on 22 Oct. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 19 0141 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 October 2026 Solar activity reached moderate levels on 16 Oct when Region 4551 (S15, L=102, class/area=Eki/620 on 15 Oct) produced an M1.3 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/1542 UTC, the largest flare of the week. Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity throughout the remainder of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 16 Oct, with normal to moderate levels observed throughout the remainder of the week. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on 12-15 and 17 Oct, with active levels observed on 16 Oct, due primarily to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions were observed on 18 Oct. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 October - 14 November 2026 Solar activity is expected to predominately low with M-class flare probabilities ranging between a slight chance to a chance throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23-27 Oct and 01-04 Nov, with normal to moderate levels likely the prevail throughout the remainder of the period. Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 19-20 Oct and 31 Oct-01 Nov, with active conditions likely on 21 and 24 Oct and 09 Nov, due to CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| Daily Video HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Video HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
| No LASCO Data | |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
| No LASCO Data | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
| No LASCO Data | |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
| No LASCO Data | |
| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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