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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Feb 21 0953 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Feb 21: None (Below G1) Feb 22: None (Below G1) Feb 23: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 21 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 20 February follow. Solar flux 111 and estimated planetary A-index 12. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 21 February was 2.00. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 21 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity dropped to very low levels with only B-level enhancements noted. Region 4374 (N10W83, Hsx/alpha) was the only numbered spot group on the disk, and remained unchanged as it reached the western limb. The other previously numbered regions decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for isolated C-class flares through 23 Feb. Probabilities increase slightly on 23 Feb due to the anticipated return of old active regions to the eastern limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak level of 7,442 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 23 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 23 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH HSS influences for the first half of the period, with embedded transient effects around the turn of the UT day. Total field reached a peak of 16 nT near the end of the UT day. The Bz component varied between +7/-5 nT for the first half of the period, seeing maximum southward deflections to -10 nT. Bz then turned mostly north after around 21/0000 UTC. Solar wind speeds ranged from ~450-500 km/s through around 21/0300 UTC, after which they increased to see a maximum just over 550 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive through 21/0300 UTC when it then rotated into a negative orientation. .Forecast... Positive polarity CH HSS influences, with embedded transient effects, are expected to continue to diminish over the course of 21 Feb, with a return to an ambient-like state anticipated for 22 Feb. Enhanced conditions are then expected to return on 23 Feb as a recurrent, negative polarity high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences combined with transient effects. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 21 Feb as positive polarity CH HSS conditions wane to background levels. Quiet levels are then anticipated for 22 Feb. Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods likely, on 23 Feb due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS effects. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 21 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2026 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 00-03UT 4.33 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 3.33 1.33 2.00 06-09UT 2.67 1.33 2.33 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 2.33 12-15UT 2.67 1.67 3.00 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 4.00 18-21UT 2.00 1.33 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 2.33 1.67 5.00 (G1) Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods are likely on 23 Feb due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS effects. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2026 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2026 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 R1-R2 5% 5% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts on 23 Feb with the anticipated return of old active regions to the eastern limb. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 16 0314 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 February 2026 Solar activity reached moderate levels on 09, 11, 12, and 13 Feb and was at low levels on 10, 14, and 15 Feb. Region 4366 (N14, L=203, class/area Fkc/950 on 09 Feb) continued to be the most prolific spot group, producing five out of the six M-class flares during the period. The largest flare was an M2.8 flare that occurred at 09/0227 UTC, followed by an M1.2 at 10/0009 UTC, an M1.1 at 11/0044 UTC, an M1.4 at 11/1312 UTC, and finally an M1.4 at 12/0240 UTC. Region 4373 (N09, L=110, class/area Hax/140 on 10 Feb) was the only other region to contribute to the M-flare activity, adding an M1.0/Sf flare at 13/0858 UTC. There were 35 C-class flares, with the largest being a C9.2/Sf at 09/2302 UTC from Region 4374. CME activity included a large filament (located near N15W25) that lifted off and disappeared from GONG H-alpha imagery at around 10/1910Z. Initial coronagraph imagery from LASCO C2 at 10/1948Z revealed the eruption likely coincided with a separate eruption from S22W80 (first visible in C2 at 10/1924Z). This event is thought to have passed near Earth late on 14 Feb, slightly enhancing the geomagnetic field. Additionally, a CME associated with the M1.0 on 13 Feb first became visible off the NW in LASCO C2 at 13/0924Z and first visible in STEREO COR2 imagery at 13/0938Z. This event likely arrived at Earth on 15 Feb, possibly embedded in the CH HSS. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit on 09-15 Feb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 09, 10, 12, and 13 Feb, reaching a peak flux value of 1,764 pfu at 09/1500 UTC. Flux levels were at moderate levels on 11, 14, and 15 Feb. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 09 and 12 Feb, reached active levels on 10, 11, 13, and 14 Feb, and reached minor storm levels on 15 Feb. The elevated levels starting on 09 Feb and lasting through 14 Feb were likely associated with negative polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) influences combined with intermittent transient effects. The increase in activity on 15 Feb is thought to be the result of a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS, possibly mixed with glancing effects from the CME that left the Sun on 13 Feb. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 February - 14 March 2026 Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 16-21 Feb. Activity is expected to increase to moderate levels with M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares expected and a chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) on 22 Feb through 07 Mar as Region 4366 returns to the visible disk. Activity should then decrease to low levels, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 08-09 Mar as Region 4366 transits the western limb. Low levels, with a chance for M-class flares, are expected to return on 10-14 Mar as old Region 4366 rotates to the far side once again. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels are likely to be below the S1 (Minor) level on 16-21 Feb and again on 08-14 Mar. There is a chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels from 22 Feb-07 Mar as old Region 4366 returns to the visible disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 16 Feb through 03 Mar, 06-08 Mar, and 11-12 Mar as CH HSS influence sporadically continues. Moderate levels are likely on 04-05, 09-10, and 13-14 Mar, outside of CH HSS influence. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 16-21 Feb, 24-25 Feb, 05-07 Mar, and 10 Mar due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS effects. Active conditions are likely on 12 Mar following a solar sector boundary crossing, then again on 14 Mar with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Barring the potential for CME activity, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 19-23 Feb, 26 Feb - 04 Mar, and 08, 09, 11, and 13 Mar. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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