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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Oct 09 0812 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Oct 10: None (Below G1) Oct 11: G2 (Moderate) Oct 12: None (Below G1) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 11 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 10 October follow. Solar flux 126 and estimated planetary A-index 46. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 11 October was 3.00. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 11 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to high levels again after Region 4549 (N09W60, Eki/beta-delta) produced an M6.4/1n flare (R2-Moderate radio blackout) that peaked at 10/1510 UTC. Associated with the flare were a Type II radio sweep (est. speed 929 km/s) and a 10cm radio burst (240 sfu). Additionally, an associated CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1548 UTC. Modeling suggests an overall miss, with the majority of the bulk passing ahead and above Earth orbit. However, there exists a slight chance for possible grazing effects at Earth late on 12 Oct. Region 4549 continued to maintain a delta magnetic configuration with slight decay observed, mainly in the trailer and intermediate spots. This region also produced an M1.2 flare (R1-Minor radio blackout) at 10/1412 UTC, as well as multiple C-class flares. Region 4545 (N17W66, Bxo/beta) experienced new flux emergence, resulting in a C2.1 at 10/2018 UTC. Region 4548 (S13W26, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive, while Region 4552 (N22W38, Axx/alpha) continued to simplify. Region 4551 (S14E41, Eko/beta-gamma) grew in magnetic complexity and produced several small C-class flares in the period.. A new area of flux emergence was noted on the east limb near N07 that will be monitored for possible development. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels (90-99%) with M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely (55-65%) through 13 Oct, primarily due to the flaring potential of Region 4549. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels (peak value of 2,169 pfu at 10/1500 UTC) before they were redistributed by the passing CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 12 Oct before increasing to high levels on 13 Oct. There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold through 12 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters began the period slightly enhanced, likely a combination of weak glancing transient and negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream influences. At 10/1434 UTC, an interplanetary shock was observed a L1, indicating the arrival of the anticipated CME(s) from 07-08 Oct. Total field initially increased to 26 nT before eventually increasing to reach a peak of 46 nT at 10/1518 UTC. Initial Bz deflections reached -16 nT, but eventually deflected further south to a maximum of -29 nT at 10/1624 UTC. Solar wind speeds jumped from 400 km/s to over 530 km/s early, then steadily increased to a peak just over 900 km/s at 10/1753 UTC. Density increased to over 100 ppcm3 and Phi slowly oscillated between sectors over the course of the reporting period. The initial large disturbance had settled into a relatively steady state by 10/2000 UTC: total field averaging 15-20 nT, Bz predominantly northward, negative phi, and a solar wind speed gradually decreasing from ~775 km/s to ~600 km/s/. IMF parameters began dropping by 11/0815 UTC, reaching background levels by 11/0947 UTC, though the wind speed remained relatively constant at approximately 600 km/s till the end of the period. .Forecast... Additional enhancements are expected early on 11 Oct as CME effects persist. Conditions are expected to diminish by midday, yet remain slightly enhanced throughout the remainder of the period and into 12 Oct. Late on 12 Oct, a north-south oriented negative polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position, re-enhancing the solar wind environment. CH effects are expected to persist into 13 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled levels. The arrival of the 07-08 Oct CME(s) pushed geomagnetic storm activity to reach G3 (Strong) levels by midday, with the field reducing to unsettled to active conditions after 11/0000 UTC. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected, with G2 (Moderate) levels likely early on 11 Oct due to persistent CME effects. Conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced at unsettled to isolated active levels through 12 Oct as CME effects diminish and -CH HSS influence persists. By late on 12 Oct and into 13 Oct, conditions are expected to increase to mostly active conditions, with increased chances for isolated G1 (Minor) storming as the north-south oriented negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 11 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 11-Oct 13 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 11-Oct 13 2026 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 00-03UT 4.00 5.33 (G1) 4.00 03-06UT 3.67 5.67 (G2) 4.00 06-09UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 4.00 09-12UT 5.67 (G2) 3.67 3.67 12-15UT 5.33 (G1) 3.67 4.00 15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 3.33 21-00UT 4.33 3.33 2.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) are expected on 11-12 Oct, due to anticipated continued influence of several different CMEs along with some potential negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 11-Oct 13 2026 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 S1 or greater 10% 10% 5% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms through 13 Oct, primarily due to the flaring potential of Region 4549. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at 10/1510Z UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 11-Oct 13 2026 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 R1-R2 65% 65% 55% R3 or greater 15% 15% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, through 13 Oct. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 05 0139 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 September - 04 October 2026 Solar activity was at very low to low levels throughout the summary period. Region 4535 (N11, L=351, class/area Dao/060 on 30 Sep) produced the strongest flare of the period; an impulsive C8.6/1f event at 30/0246 UTC. This event also produced a 523 km/s Type II and a Type IV Sweep. All other regions remained simple and absent of any significant activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 28-30 Sep and 01 Oct with a peak of 5,620 pfu observed at 29/1620 UTC. Moderate levels were observed on 02-04 Oct. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 28-30 Sep and 01-03 Oct with some isolated unsettled periods observed early on 03 Oct. On 04 Oct, solar wind parameters became enhanced due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 22 nT and Bz observed several southward deflections, the maximum being -20 nT early on 04 Oct. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from about 300 km/s to a peak of 644 km/s later on 04 Oct. The phi angle was predominately positive. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 October - 31 October 2026 Solar activity is likely to continue at very low to low levels throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 06-11 Oct, 14-17 Oct, and 23-28 Oct due to anticipated incluence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 22 and 31 Oct. Active levels are likely on 06, 21, and 23 Oct. Unsettled levels are likely on 07, 11-14, and 24 Oct. All increases in geomagnetic activity are associated with anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent, coronal hole HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| Daily Video HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Video HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
| No Current LASCO Data | |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
| No Current LASCO Data | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
| No Current LASCO Data | |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
| No Current LASCO Data | |
| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
