| Warnings |
|
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial
Number: 4804
Issue
Time: 2025 Jan 13 1321 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 4803 Valid From: 2025 Jan 13 0105 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 13 1800 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. Space Weather Scales |
| Current Condition and Alerts |
|
Issued: 2025 Jan 13 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 January follow. Solar flux 158 and estimated planetary A-index 6. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 13 January was 2.33. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
| Forecast Discussion |
|
Issued: 2025 Jan 13 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low with only C-class flare activity observed. Region 3947 (N13W70, Dko/beta-gamma) was responsible for a C8.0 flare at 13/0215 UTC, which was the largest of the period. Region 3958 (S06, L=231) decayed to plage. Region 3959 (N17E52, Cho/beta) continued to rotate into view revealing possible small, trailing spots. Region 3960 (S11W71, Cao/beta) rapidly formed, was numbered and produced a C4.3 flare at 12/2208 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events, and a slight chance for an R3 or greater event, over 13-15 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 15 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 13-15 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected likely transient influences from a possible filament eruption that occurred on 09 Jan. Total field increased to a peak of 13 nT and the Bz component underwent a sustained southward deflection of -6 to -9 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from ~370 km/s to ~450 km/s. Phi became predominantly negative at approximately 13/0335 UTC. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected on 14-15 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated active period. .Forecast... Quiet and unsettled conditions are expected to prevail over 13-15 Jan, with negative polarity CH HSS influences likely on 14-15 Jan. Space Weather Scales |
| Three Day Forecast |
|
Issued: 2025 Jan 13 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 13-Jan 15 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 13-Jan 15 2025 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 00-03UT 4.00 1.67 2.67 03-06UT 2.33 2.00 2.67 06-09UT 1.67 1.67 2.67 09-12UT 2.33 1.67 2.33 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 2.33 15-18UT 2.00 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 13-Jan 15 2025 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 13-Jan 15 2025 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There remains a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 13-15 Jan. Space Weather Scales |
| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts |
|
Issued: 2025 Jan 13 0208 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 January 2025 Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Region 3947 (N12, L=340, class/area=Ekc/370 on 08 Jan) produced the strongest event of the period, an M4.8 flare (R1-Minor) at 06/1624 UTC. Associated with the flare were Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. The CME produced originated from the W limb and no Earth-directed component was suspected. The only other region to produce an R1 event was 3737 (S17, L=083, class/area=Cso/130 on 02 Jan) with an M1.1 flare at 07/2305 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 06-09 Jan following influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the summary period was at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels on 06 Jan and 08-10 Jan were associated with weak positive polarity CH HSS influence. The remainder of the summary period was at quiet to unsettled levels. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 January - 08 February 2025 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and slight chance for X-class events (R3/Strong), throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to reached high levels on 02-05 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 31 Jan - 02 Feb due to the anticipated influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are likely on 13 Jan and 03-05 Feb. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels. Space Weather Scales |
| About AIA Images |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Daily Image AIA 171 |
 |
| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model |
 |
| Daily Image AIA 193 |
 |
| Daily Image AIA 304 |
 |
| Daily Video AIA 171 |
 |
| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model |
 |
| Daily Video AIA 193 |
 |
| Daily Video AIA 304 |
 |
| About the HMI Images |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum |
 |
| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram |
 |
| About LASCO Images |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
 |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
 |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
 |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
 |
| Space Weather Videos |
.jpg)
