. Scientific Frontline: Space Weather

Space Weather

Warnings
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 991
Issue Time: 2024 Mar 18 1011 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 19: None (Below G1) Mar 20: G1 (Minor) Mar 21: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Scales
Current Condition and Alerts
Issued: 2024 Mar 18 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Geophysical Alert Message

Solar-terrestrial indices for 17 March follow.
Solar flux 151 and estimated planetary A-index 2.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 18 March was 2.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Space Weather Scales
Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Mar 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. The strongest event of the
period was an M2.7 flare (R1-Minor) from Region 3612 (N22W88, Axx/alpha)
as it rotated around the NW limb. An additional M1.0 flare was observed
shortly after from Region 3614 (N16E62, Dai/beta) at 18/0415 UTC.
Emerging flux was noted to the SW of Region 3608 (N11W18, Bxo/beta) and
rotating around the SE limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low over 18-20 Mar, with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background
levels, but remained well below event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but
below event levels on 18 Mar, and slowly return to background levels
over 19-20 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be
at normal to moderate levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speeds decreased from
~350 km/s to near 300 km/s by the end of the period. Total magnetic
field strength was at or below 5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in the
positive sector.

.Forecast...
Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 18-19 Mar,
and through the first half of 20 Mar. Enhanced solar wind conditions are
expected after midday on 20 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs
associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet over 18-19 Mar, and
through the first half of 20 Mar. Periods of active conditions and G1
(Minor) storming are likely during the latter half of 20 Mar due to the
anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament
eruption.
Space Weather Scales
Three Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Mar 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 18-Mar 20 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 18-Mar 20 2024

Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20
00-03UT 0.33 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 0.33 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 0.67 1.67 1.67
09-12UT 2.00 1.00 3.00
12-15UT 1.00 0.67 3.67
15-18UT 1.00 0.67 3.67
18-21UT 1.33 1.67 4.00
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.67 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 20 Mar due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 17 Mar.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 18-Mar 20 2024

Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 18 2024 0332 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 18-Mar 20 2024

Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over the next three days.
Space Weather Scales
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2024 Mar 18 0617 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 - 17 March 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Moderate levels
were reached on 14 Mar due to an M1.0/sf flare at 14/0604 UTC from
Region 3599 (S12, L=065, class/area Dao/230 on 12 Mar). On 16 Mar,
Moderate levels were once again seen as an M3.5 and an M1.1 occurred
at 16/1635 UTC and 16/2155 UTC from a region just beyond the SE
limb. Region 3599 was also responsible for a series of CMEs just
beyond the SW limb which occurred at 15/0210 UTC and 15/0328 UTC.
Modelling of the event indicated no Earth-directed component,
however, an associated minor solar radiation storm (S1) was
observed. Other activity included an approximate 35 degree filament
channel eruption centered near S28W25 beginning at 17/0100 UTC. Two
subsequent CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery off the SSE
and SW limbs at 17/0312 UTC and 17/0336 UTC, respectively. Modelling
indicated possible glancing blows late on 20 Mar to early on 21 Mar.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event above the 10 pfu (S1/Minor)
threshold as a result of activity from Region 3599 beyond the SW
limb early on 15 Mar. The event began at 15/2050 UTC, reached a peak
flux of 16.7 pfu at 16/0635 UTC, and ended at 16/1505 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 11 Mar due to CH HSS influence. A peak of 1,420 pfu
was observed at 11/1605 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar
wind speed decreased on 11 Mar as weak negative polarity CH HSS
influence diminished. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed
midday on 11 Mar followed by another mild increase in solar wind
speed and total field on 12-13 Mar. Solar wind speed reached a
maximum around 484 km/s by 14/1350 UTC with total field near 9 nT
early on 14 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. The
geomagnetic field responded with unsettled periods on 12 and 14 Mar
and an isolated active period early on 15 Mar. Solar wind speed
slowly decreased around 290 km/s with total field values below 5 nT
by the end of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 March - 13 April 2024

There is a chance for moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels through
31 Mar, mainly due to the flare potential of Region 3614 (N16,
L=223, class/area Hax/080 on 17 Mar) and an unnumbered region
rotating onto the SE limb. Low levels with a slight chance of
M-class flares are likely on 01-13 Apr.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 07-08 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS
influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels, with G1 (Minor) storming likely, on 20-21 Mar due to
activity from the 17 Mar CMEs. Unsettled levels are expected on
28-29 Mar, 03-05 Apr, and 09-11 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS
activity.
Space Weather Scales
About AIA Images
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes
Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.
Daily Image AIA 171
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 193
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV
Daily Image AIA 304
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II
Daily Video AIA 171
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model
Daily Video AIA 193
Daily Video AIA 304
About the HMI Images
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager)
HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities.
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Daily Image HMI Continuum
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram
About LASCO Images
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk.
C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun.
C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun.
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Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Space Weather Videos



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