| Warnings |
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Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial
Number: 226
Issue
Time: 2023 Dec 02 2121 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Dec 03: None (Below G1) Dec 04: G2 (Moderate) Dec 05: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. Space Weather Scales |
| Current Condition and Alerts |
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Issued: 2023 Dec 03 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 02 December follow. Solar flux 148 and estimated planetary A-index 14. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 03 December was 1.67. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
| Forecast Discussion |
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Issued: 2023 Dec 03 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C4.0 at 03/0806 UTC from departed Region 3494 (S17, L=332). Both Regions 3500 (S17W67, Dkc/beta-gamma) and 3509 (N11W72, Cso/beta) exhibited minor decay. The rest of the spot groups were relatively stable. The CME observed at 01/2324 UTC associated with the M1 flare from Region 3500 was modelled. The results indicated a potential grazing influence early on 05 Dec. No additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance of M-class flares and a slight chance of an isolated X-class flare on 03-05 Dec, primarily due to the flare probability of Region 3500. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 03-04 Dec. An increase to high levels is likely on 05 Dec due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance of a S1 (Minor) event all three days due to the flare potential of Region 3500. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters decreased through the period as CME effects slowly waned. Total field decreased from 18 nT to near 5 nT while solar wind speed decreased from 475 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Bz component was mostly northward during the period. Phi angle was predominately negative. .Forecast... CME influence is expected to continue to diminish through 03 Dec. On 04 Dec, a large trans-equatorial CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Solar wind speeds in the 600-700 km/s range is likely based on recurrence values. HSS conditions are expected to continue through 05 Dec. There is also a potential for grazing influences on 05 Dec from a CME that left the Sun late on 01 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels as CME activity slowly waned. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for active periods, are expected on 03 Dec as CME activity continues to diminish. Unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels are likely on 04 Dec as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming is likely on 05 Dec as HSS effects persist, possibly in combination with grazing influences from the 01 Dec CME. Space Weather Scales |
| Three Day Forecast |
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Issued: 2023 Dec 03 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 03-Dec 05 2023 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 03-Dec 05 2023 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 00-03UT 2.67 2.67 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 3.00 4.00 3.67 06-09UT 3.00 4.33 3.33 09-12UT 1.67 5.67 (G2) 3.00 12-15UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 2.33 15-18UT 2.67 4.00 2.00 18-21UT 2.67 3.33 3.00 21-00UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 3.33 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 04 Dec, and G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 05 Dec, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 03-Dec 05 2023 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) conditions over 03-05 Dec. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 03-Dec 05 2023 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events and a slight chance for R3 or greater events over 03-05 Dec. Space Weather Scales |
| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts |
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Issued: 2023 Nov 27 0159 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 November 2023 Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed on 21-22 and 25-26 November. Moderate (R1-minor) levels were observed on 20 and 23-24 November. During the period, a total of 55 C-class and 4 M-class flares were observed from 13 different regions. Region 3492 (N19, L=345, class/area Ehi/380 on 24 Nov) was the most active region producing 23 C-class and 1 M-class flare. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels during the period. Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on 20 and 23-24 November. Active, minor storm (G1-minor) and moderate (G2-moderate) levels were observed on 21-22 and 25-26 November. Quiet to minor storm levels were observed on 21-22 November due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Minor to moderate storm levels were observed on 25 November due to CME and positive polarity CH HSS influence. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 November - 23 December 2023 Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on 02-12 December, with a chance for moderate (R1-minor) levels on 27-30 November, 01 December and 13-23 December. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 30 November, 01-04 December and 07-09 December due to CH HSS influence. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 27-28 November, 05-07 and 12-13 December. Unsettled to G1 (minor) levels are possible on 18-20 and 22-23 December. All activity is due to a variety of positive or negative polarity CH HSS influence. Space Weather Scales |
| About AIA Images |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Daily Image AIA 171 |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 |
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| About the HMI Images |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram |
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| About LASCO Images |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
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| Space Weather Videos |
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