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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Feb 03 1428 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1 Begin Time: 2026 Feb 03 1358 UTC Maximum Time: 2026 Feb 03 1408 UTC End Time: 2026 Feb 03 1418 UTC X-ray Class: X1.5 Location: N14E14 NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point. Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 03 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 02 February follow. Solar flux 174 and estimated planetary A-index 6. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 03 February was 1.00. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 03 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels and dominated by Region 4366 (N14E21, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) with negligible contributions from the remaining disk. Region 4366 continued its growth phase and exhibited an increasingly complex delta configuration and increased intermediary spots. Region 4366 produced several M-class flares and two X-class flares during the reporting period. The X-class events were an X2.8 flare at 02/0036 UTC and an X1.6 flare at 02/0814 UTC. New Regions 4370 (S18E57, Cro/beta) and 4371 (S22E63, Bxo/beta) were numbered as they rotated into view from the East limb, though foreshortening and limb proximity continue to complicate a definitive assessment of their true size and complexity. The other four active regions on the visible solar disk remained stable with no appreciable growth or signs of development. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Moderate to high solar activity due to M-class flaring is expected for the next three days with a high chance for occasional X-class flares due to expected further activity from AR 4366. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period, with a peak of 7,290 pfu at 02/2030 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 05 Feb. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed the S1 (Minor) levels on 03-05 Feb due to the recent X8.1 flare event from Region 4366 and possible future eruptions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained between 4 and 7 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative, with a southernmost deflection of -6 nT. Solar wind speeds were stable around 300–315 km/s. The Phi angle was mostly in the negative orientation. .Forecast... A nominal solar wind regime is expected to continue through 04 Feb barring any significant eruptive events. Disturbances in the solar wind are likely on 05 Feb with the arrival of a CME associated with the X8.1 flare. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet through 04 Feb. Activity is likely to increase from unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of the complex CME ejecta associated with the 01/2357 UTC X8.1 flare from Region 4366. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 03 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 03-Feb 05 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 03-Feb 05 2026 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05 00-03UT 2.00 1.67 2.00 03-06UT 1.67 1.67 2.00 06-09UT 1.00 1.33 1.67 09-12UT 1.00 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 0.67 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 3.00 18-21UT 1.67 1.33 4.33 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 5.00 (G1) Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 05 Feb due to possible glancing influences from the CME associated with the 01/2357 UTC X8.1 flare from Region 4366. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 03-Feb 05 2026 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05 S1 or greater 50% 50% 50% Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed the S1 (Minor) levels on 03-05 Feb due to the recent X8.1 flare event from Region 4366 and possible future eruptions. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 03 2026 0701 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 03-Feb 05 2026 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05 R1-R2 80% 80% 80% R3 or greater 40% 40% 40% Rationale: Moderate to high solar activity due to M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) is expected for the next three days with a high chance for occasional X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to expected further activity from AR 4366. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 02 0937 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 January - 01 February 2026 Solar activity ranged from low levels to very high levels. On 26-30 Jan, mostly low level C-class flaring was observed with the majority of the flares occurring from Regions 4351 (S04, L=004, class/area Dai/080 on 24 Jan), 4353 (N18, L=359, class/area Dai/110 on 25 Jan). The largest flare during this timeframe was a C8.8 at 26/1339 UTC from Region 4355 (S12, L=299, class/area Cao/020 on 25 Jan). On 30 Jan, a new region emerged in the NE quadrant and was numbered 4366 (N14, L=202, class/area Ekc/550 on 01 Feb). This region quickly grew into a large, compact, and magnetically complex region over 31 Jan-01 Feb. Multiple delta magnetic configurations evolved as the region grew. Consequently, there were 17 M-class flares and 2 X-class flares observed on 01 Feb. The largest was an X8.1 flare at 01/2357 UTC. Associated with X8.1 flare was observed three CMEs that appeared in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 02/0048-0300 UTC which was also evident in GOES/SUVI 304 imagery. Modelling was currently underway at the timing of this report. A greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement near 1 pfu (below S1-Minor) was still in progress from the event that began on 18 Jan, but declined to near background levels by 28 Jan. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 26 Jan-01 Feb with a peak flux of 13,200 pfu observed at 27/1650 UTC. Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) levels over the period. The period began under positive polarity CH HSS conditions with solar wind speed averaging around 500 km/s with total field around 5-8 nT. Solar wind conditions returned to nominal levels by early on 27 Jan. A solar sector boundary crossing from positive to negative occurred around 27/1500 UTC followed by an increase in total field to 13 nT and solar wind speed increase to around 670 km/s on 28-29 Jan as a negative polarity CH HSS became geoeffective. Solar wind speeds gradually subsided to nominal levels by 01 Feb. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 Jan, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming on 28 Jan, quiet to active levels on 29-30 Jan, and quiet conditions on 31 Jan - 01 Feb. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 February - 28 February 2026 Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels with further M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares expected and a high chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) on 02-10 Feb as Region 4366 transits across the visible disk. Low levels with a chance for M-class flares are expected on 11-22 Feb. An increase to moderate to high levels is once again likely on 23-28 Feb as Region 4366 returns to the visible disk. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to reach S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 02-04 Feb due to proton prediction model guidance from the recent X8.1 flare. A chance for further proton enhancements exist through 12 Feb as Region 4366 transits the visible disk and beyond. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 02-03 Feb, 06-12 Feb, and 15-28 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 02-05 Feb barring the potential for CME activity related to the X8.1 flare. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 05-11 Feb, 22-23 Feb, and 26 Feb. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 13-21 Feb, and 24-25 Feb, with G1 (Minor) levels likely on 13 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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