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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Sep 09 1815 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 08 September follow. Solar flux 110 and estimated planetary A-index 29. The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 09 September was 3.00. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Sep 09 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with isolated C-class flare activity. The largest flare of the period was a C3.4 at 08/2339 UTC from otherwise stable Region 4528 (S11E31, Hsx/alpha). Region 4530 (N19W01, Dao/beta) developed asymmetric penumbra on both its leading and trailing poles while undergoing consolidation in its intermediate area. New flux emergence in the intermediate area was observed late in the period. Region 4521 (N09W33, Hsx/alpha) began to show signs of possible flux emergence and pore development as it produced a C2.4 flare at 08/1224 UTC, a C2.8 flare at 08/1743 UTC, and a C2.6 flare at 08/2224 UTC. The first of these two events likely resulted in the rather faint CME first seen to the west in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 08/1334 UTC with preliminary modeling showing a miss NW off the Sun-Earth line. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels due to isolated to occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 11 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,780 pfu observed at 08/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may briefly return to normal to moderate levels on 09 Sep during CME arrivals. Moderate to high levels are then expected to persist through 11 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels through 11 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels until near 09/0425 UTC, when a weak shock from a nearby passing CME is believed to cause slight enhancements. Total field strength increased from ~5 nT to 11 nT. Wind speeds and density both exhibited slight increases, but returned to nominal levels. Phi was variable early before settling mostly positive. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions due to positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue through 10 Sep. Further enhancements are likely on 09 Sep with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 05 and 06 Sep. On 11 Sep, a separate additional positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream is likely to arrive, bringing a mildly disturbed solar wind environment. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels under positive polarity CH HSS effects during the 0600-0900 UTC and 1500-1800 UTC synoptic periods. .Forecast... G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Sep due to ongoing positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun over the course of 05-06 Sep. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 10 Sep and continue into 11 Sep as another positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Sep 09 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 09-Sep 11 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 09-Sep 11 2026 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 00-03UT 2.67 3.00 2.00 03-06UT 1.33 2.67 2.33 06-09UT 2.33 2.67 2.00 09-12UT 2.67 2.33 2.00 12-15UT 2.67 1.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.00 2.67 18-21UT 5.00 (G1) 2.00 2.67 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 2.33 3.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Sep due to the combination of positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects and the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun 05-06 Sep. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 09-Sep 11 2026 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 09-Sep 11 2026 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 R1-R2 10% 10% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with occasional C-class flare activity and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 11 Sep. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Sep 07 0224 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 August - 06 September 2026 Solar activity was at moderate levels on 02 Sep and 04-05 Sep due to three R1 (Minor) M-class flares, and low levels on the remaining days. The largest flare of the period was an M3.0 at 02/1920 UTC from Region 4524 (N12, L=224, class/area Cso/100 on 05 Sep), which was also responsible for another M1.2/1n at 04/0753 UTC and 11 C-class flares throughout the period. The M3.0 was accompanied by Type II (estimated velocity 1181 km/s) and IV radio sweeps and a CME first observed in LASCO C2 at ~02/1936 UTC, which modeling indicated would pass behind Earth orbit. The last R1 was an M1.0/1f at 05/1518 UTC from Plage Region 4520 (S12, L=337, class/area Dai/40 on 01 Sep); this region had fully decayed to plage on 03 Sep. An associated CME first became visible in LASCO C2 at ~ 05/1800 and in STEREO coronagraph imagery at ~05/1608 UTC as a halo. Modeling indicated this eruption would pass ahead of Earth orbit. Notably, Plage Region 4518 (N07, L=354, class/area Cri/30 on 26 Aug), which had fully decayed to plage on 03 Sep as well, also produced a C1.3 at 04/1527 UTC. 7 additional CMEs were observed this reporting period. Coronal dimming seen in GOES/SUVI 195 starting ~02/0910 UTC was associated with a CME first seen in STEREO coronagraph imagery at ~02/1108 UTC; modeling indicated that the bulk of the material is likely to pass ahead of Earth orbit but a glancing blow on 07 Sep was possible. A C7.9/Sn at 03/1630 UTC from Region 4524 was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1359 km/s) and a CME first observed in LASCO C2 at ~03/1636 UTC, which modeling indicated would not hit Earth. A C6.7/Sf at 04/1930 UTC from Region 4524 was accompanied by Type II (estimated velocity 698 km/s) and IV radio sweeps and a CME first visible in LASCO C2 at ~04/1924 UTC and STEREO at ~ 04/2030 UTC; modeling indicates this eruption may swallow the 02 Sep eruption and produce a glancing blow at Earth either late 07 Sep or early 08 Sep. A north-south filament just SE of disk-center began erupting at ~05/0530 UTC, and an associated CME was first observed in STEREO coronagraph imagery at ~05/0638 UTC. A C6.4/1n at 05/1045 UTC from Region 4524 was associated with a CME first observed in LASCO C2 at ~ 05/1112 UTC. A C8.5/2n at 05/1746 UTC from Region 4524 was associated with a CME first observed in LASCO C2 at ~05/1800. Modeling indicates that these three CMEs may have a merged arrival at Earth on 08 Sep. Finally, a C5.0/1n at 06/1042 UTC from Region 4524 was associated with a CME first observed in STEREO coronagraph imagery at ~06/1053 UTC, which modeling indicates may produce an arrival at Earth late 08 Sep or early 09 Sep. Proton levels at geosynchronous orbit rapidly enhanced on 05 Sep in response to the M1.0 from Plage Region 4520. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux crossed the 1 pfu threshold at 05/1545 UTC, peaked at 05/1550 UTC at 1.16 pfu, and crossed back below the threshold at 05/1615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossed the 10 pfu threshold at 05/1615 UTC, peaked at 05/1645 UTC at 18 pfu, and crossed back below the threshold at 05/2135 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 31Aug - 04 Sep and on 06 Sep, returning to normal to moderate levels on 05 Sep. Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled levels 31 Aug-01 Sep and 05 Sep, and was otherwise at quiet levels. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 September - 03 October 2026 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for moderate levels and a slight chance for high levels throughout the forecast period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 09-12 Sep, 16-23 Sep, and 27 Sep-03 Oct. Levels are expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 07-08 Sep, 13-15 Sep, and 24-26 Sep. Geomagnetic field activity is expected reach active to G1 storming levels on 07-08 Sep due to the anticipated arrivals of the CMEs discussed above. G1 storming levels are again anticipated on 24-26 Sep due to a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), with active levels anticipated on 27 Sep. Active levels are also anticipated on 14-16 Sep due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Largely quiet levels are anticipated for all remaining dates in the forecast period. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| Daily Video HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Video HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
