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| Warnings and Alerts | |
| No Current Warnings Space Weather Scales | |
| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 16 1505 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 15 October follow. Solar flux 126 and estimated planetary A-index 9. The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 16 October was 1.67. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 16 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period was an impulsive C4.9 observed at 15/1555 UTC from Region 4551 (S14W12, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). This region produced the majority of X-ray flares observed this period. Region 4551 exhibited several areas of new flux emergence surrounding its leader spot. Region 4557 (N07E23, Dsi/beta) showed growth over the second half of the period and produced a few weak C-class flares. Regions 4554 (N07, L=78), 4556 (N03, L=66), and 4558 (S08, L=145) all decayed to plage this period. The remaining Region 4555 (S08W63, Cro/beta) was stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 18 Oct, with a slight chance (20%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) due mainly to the flare potential of Region 4551. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 16-18 Oct. There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm through 18 Oct due to the flare potential of Region 4551. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated under diminishing HSS activity. Total field (Bt) maintained an average of 5 nT, with a variable Bz (north-south) component that ranged from a brief southward deflection of -5 nT early in the period. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from about 510 km/s to end the period at about 420 km/s. Phi was in a mostly negative sector. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are anticipated to see an occasional isolated interval of disturbed/elevated conditions on 16 Oct as influences from a negative polarity CH HSS slowly wane, with a return to near-background/ambient levels on 17-18 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Unsettled conditions are expected to persist through 16 Oct, as influences from the negative polarity CH HSS wane. 17 Oct is anticipated to return to quiet geomagnetic conditions, persisting through 18 Oct. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 16 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 16-Oct 18 2026 is 3.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 16-Oct 18 2026 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct 18 00-03UT 3.33 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 2.00 1.67 1.67 06-09UT 1.67 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 1.67 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 21-00UT 2.67 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 16-Oct 18 2026 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct 18 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 16-Oct 18 2026 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct 18 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 12 0344 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 October 2026 Solar activity was at very low to (R1-R2 - Minor-Moderate) levels throughout the summary period. Region 4545 (N17, L=222, class/area Dso/070 on 08 Oct) produced an impulsive M1.0 (R1 - Minor) flare at 05/1848 UTC. Region 4547 (N15, L=274, class/area Cri/030 on 06 Oct) produced an M1.3 flare at 09/1409 UTC as the region exited the west limb. The majority of the activity was observed from Region 4549 (N10, L=216, class/area Eki/260 on 09 Oct). During the period, the region produced 39 C-class, 3 R1-Minor, and 2 R2-Moderate flares. It produced an M6.7/2b flare at 08/1548 UTC with an associated Type II Sweep with an estimated velocity of 4,125 km/s and a Type IV Sweep. At 10/1510 UTC, this region produced an M6.4/1n flare with an associated Type II Sweep with an estimated velocity of 929 km/s and a 240 sfu Tenflare. The largest region on the disk, Region 4551 (S15, L=102, class/area Eko/400 on 11 Oct) produced 3 C-class flares. In total, 50 C-class and 7 M-class events were observed. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 05-08 Oct and 10 Oct with a peak of 11,300 pfu observed at 08/1250 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 09 and 11 Oct. Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3-Strong levels during the period. Quiet to G1-Minor levels were observed on 05 Oct and quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 06 Oct, all due to influences from a positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels were observed on 07-08 Oct. Activity increased on 09 Oct when unsettled to active levels were observed due to weak influence from a 06 Oct CME. Activity levels increased further on 10 Oct when unsettled to G3-Strong levels were observed due to continued influence from CME activity observed on 06 and 07 Oct. During this level of high activity, total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 45 nT at about 10/1500 UTC and Bz observed some southward deflections to 30 nT at about 10/1630 UTC. Solar wind speeds rapidly increased from about 380 km/s at 10/1500 UTC to a peak of about 890 km/s at 10/1755 UTC. Associated with this CME activity was some influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 October - 07 November 2026 Solar activity is likely to continue at very low to low levels with isolated R1-Minor levels possible throughout the period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 14-15 Oct, 23-28 Oct, and 01-04 Nov, all due to anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach G1-Minor geomagnetic storm levels on 13 and 31 Oct , and 01 Nov. Active levels are likely on 12, 22, and 23 Oct. Unsettled levels are likely on 14-15, 21, and 24 Oct and 02 and 06-07 Nov. All increases in goemagnetic activity are associated with anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent, coronal hole HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. levels. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| Daily Video HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Video HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
| No Current LASCO Data | |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
| No Current LASCO Data | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
| No Current LASCO Data | |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
| No Current LASCO Data | |
| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
