| Warnings |
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial
Number: 3437
Issue
Time: 2025 Mar 17 0521 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 3436 Begin Time: 2025 Mar 10 1150 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 5055 pfu Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. Space Weather Scales |
| Current Condition and Alerts |
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Issued: 2025 Mar 17 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 16 March follow. Solar flux 186 and estimated planetary A-index 10. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 17 March was 2.00. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
| Forecast Discussion |
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Issued: 2025 Mar 17 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4028 (S19E23, Dai/beta-gamma) developed several intermediate spots and produced the two largest flares of the period; a C6.5/Sf flare at 16/2232 UTC and a C7.8/1f flare at 17/0542 UTC. Regions 4025 (N11W19, Dso/beta-gamma) and 4031 (N15W03, Dai/beta) continued their evolution, gaining additional spots along with maturing penumbra. Region 4021 (S05W18, Cso/beta) developed a few small spots ahead of the main spot, but was inactive during the period. Region 4034 (S14E45, Bxo/beta) had weak development in its trailer spots, but was also quiet. The remaining spotted regions were relatively quiet and stable. In addition to the DSF and subsequent CME mentioned in the previous discussion, an additional CME was first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 16/2036 UTC moving north from the disk. This event is likely associated with a pair of eruptions seen in SUVI 284 angstrom imagery, the first at 16/1735 UTC, and the second at 16/1955 UTC, both near Region 4032 (N28, L=148), which has decayed to an area of plage. Initial modeling indicated a possible glancing blow late on 19 Mar, but additional analysis is currently underway to corroborate these results. Finally, at around 17/1032 UTC, an approximately 5° long filament, centered near N12W28, was seen erupting in GONG H-alpha imagery. No coronagraph imagery is available at this time, but analysis will be accomplished when imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, strong) through 19 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux of 5,060 pfu at 16/1445 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 18 Mar. A return to normal to moderate levels is expected by 19 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 19 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the gradual decline of negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field averaged near 5 nT, the Bz component varied between +/- 6 nT, and solar wind speeds gradually decreased to sub 400 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominantly negative. .Forecast... Current enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected to linger but slowly wane through 18 Mar due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled under persistent, yet slowly diminishing CH HSS influence. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions, with possible isolated active periods, are expected through 18 Mar under negative polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels, with isolated unsettled periods, are expected on 19 Mar as negative polarity CH HSS effects gradually wane. Space Weather Scales |
| Three Day Forecast |
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Issued: 2025 Mar 17 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 17-Mar 19 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 17-Mar 19 2025 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 00-03UT 3.33 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 3.33 2.67 06-09UT 3.00 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 2.33 15-18UT 2.00 3.00 2.00 18-21UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 21-00UT 2.00 3.33 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 17-Mar 19 2025 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 17-Mar 19 2025 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, strong) through 19 Mar. Space Weather Scales |
| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts |
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Issued: 2025 Mar 17 0140 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 March 2025 Solar activity was at moderate levels on 11 and 14 March with two M1.1 flares observed. The first M1.1 flare was observed at 11/1304 UTC from Region 4024 (N05, L=289, class/area Cro/020 on 11 Mar). The second M1.1 flare was observed at 14/2221 UTC from Region 4030 (S16, L=123, class/area Eso/090 on 15 Mar). No significant radio or CMEs were associated with these events. The remainder of the highlight period was at low levels. At about 16/0900 UTC, dimming and a possible DSF was observed near Region 4023 (N25, L=177, class/area Hsx/030 on 11 Mar). A likely faint, slow CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery with a weak Earth-directed component expected to arrive midday on 20 Mar. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 10-16 March with a peak flux of 5,060 pfu observed at 16/1445 UTC. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 10-11 March. Activity levels increased to active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels on 12-13 March and an isolated moderate storm (G2-Moderate) level early on 14 March. Unsettled to active levels were observed for the remainder of 14 March through 15 March with mostly quiet to unsettled levels on 16 March. The enhanced activity levels on 12-16 March were due to a negative polarity CH HSS. During the active period, solar wind speeds peaked at 500-550 km/s, Bt reached 12 nT and Bz reached -10 nT levels. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 March - 12 April 2025 Solar activity is expected to be at a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels through the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 17, 29-31 March and 06-12 April due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the rest of the outlook period. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 17-21 March due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS effects and weak CME effects. Active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are expected on 25-28 March due to recurrent positive polarity CH HSS effects. Active to minor to major storm (G1-G2/Minor-Moderate) levels are expected on 04-12 April due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the period (subject to change with any CME activity). Space Weather Scales |
| About AIA Images |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Daily Image AIA 171 |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 |
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| About the HMI Images |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram |
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| About LASCO Images |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
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| Space Weather Videos |
| Space Weather Information |
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Demystifying
Space Weather
An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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