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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Jan 16 1227 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 3601 Begin Time: 2026 Jan 12 1040 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 9014 pfu Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issue Time: 2026 Jan 14 2314 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Jan 15: None (Below G1) Jan 16: None (Below G1) Jan 17: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Jan 16 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 15 January follow. Solar flux 139 and estimated planetary A-index 12. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 16 January was 2.67. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level . Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Jan 16 1232 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6.6/SF flare from Region 4345 (S17E56, Cro/beta). Region 4341 (S11E48, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the mostly complex region on the disk but was mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) on 16-18 Jan mainly due to the flare potential of AR 4341. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 9,010 pfu at 15/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels on 16 Jan. A brief return to moderate levels on 17 Jan is likely with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. High levels are expected to return on 18 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were elevated, likely due to transient activity. An increase in solar wind speeds from ~550 km/s to a peak of ~700 km/s began after 16/0214 UTC. Total magnetic field strength increased from ~5 nT to 13 nT. The Bz component of the IMF was oriented primarily northward with the exception of a brief rotation southward to 11 nT around 16/0327 UTC. .Forecast... Weak CME influence is expected to subside through 16 Jan. Another enhancement in the solar wind is expected over 17-18 Jan when a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Solar wind speed is likely to exceed 700 km/s based on recurrence data. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels. .Forecast... Quiet to active levels are expected on 16 Jan due to residual CME effects. Over 17-18 Jan, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to be geoeffective, causing unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming, with a chance for G2 (Moderate). Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Jan 16 1234 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 16-Jan 18 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 16-Jan 18 2026 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 00-03UT 3.33 2.33 3.67 03-06UT 3.67 4.00 3.33 06-09UT 3.00 5.33 (G1) 3.33 09-12UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 3.33 12-15UT 2.67 3.33 3.67 15-18UT 2.67 2.33 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 3.00 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 3.67 4.00 3.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 17-18 Jan due to anticipated influence from a coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 16-Jan 18 2026 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 16-Jan 18 2026 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Jan. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Jan 12 0311 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 January 2026 Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Forty-five weak to middle level C-class activity was observed from various regions on the disk during the period. A majority of the activity was observed from Regions 4334 (S16, L=200, class/area Dao/150 on 08 Jan), 4336 (S10, L=166, class/area Eko/430 on 09 Jan) and 4337 (N25, L=243, class/area Dao/020 on 08 Jan). At 11/2314 UTC, a long-duration M3.3 (R1-Minor) flare was observed from behind the ESE limb. Several potential Earth-directed CMEs were observed leaving the Sun on 08 Jan with possible impact on late 10 Jan to early on 11 Jan. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 05, 08, 09 and 11 Jan with high levels observed on 06, 07 and 10 Jan. A peak flux of 2,507 pfu was observed on 10/1635 UTC. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 05 Jan in response to declining CH HSS influence. Quiet levels were observed on 06 and 07 Jan. Quiet to active levels were observed on 08, 09 and early 10 Jan due to CH HSS influence. Activity levels increased to G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) activity levels during late 10 Jan through 11 Jan due to CME effects from the 08 Jan CME coupled with CH HSS effects. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 January - 07 February 2026 Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels, with a chance for R1 (Minor) conditions and a slight chance for R2/R3 (Moderate/Strong) over the next forecast period due to multiple regions on the visible disk as well as regions expected to return. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 12, 14-15, 21-27 and 30-31 Jan and 01-03 and 05-07 Feb due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 12 and 29 Jan; unsettled to active levels on 13-16, 19-23, 27-28, 30-31 Jan and 04-07 Feb. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to mostly quiet. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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