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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Mar 03 2305 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Mar 04: None (Below G1) Mar 05: None (Below G1) Mar 06: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Mar 04 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 03 March follow. Solar flux 144 and estimated planetary A-index 16. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 04 March was 2.00. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Mar 04 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels with isolated C-class flaring. Regions 4381 (N0830, Eao/beta) and 4384 (N10E53, Eho/beta) remained the primary drivers of activity. The largest event of the period was a C2.9 flare from Region 4381 at 03/0030 UTC. Region 4384 continues to rotate further onto the disk, but foreshortening still hinders a definitive characterization of its magnetic complexity. Region 4378 (N15W07, Cho/beta) showed some new flux emergence but remained mostly inactive. Region 4383 (N15W41, Axx/alpha) simplified into a unipolar group following the loss of its trailing spots, while Region 4380 (S21E05) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 06 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 7,430 pfu observed at 03/0005 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 04-06 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 06 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Solar wind speed increased to ~450 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) intensified, maintaining an average of ~10 nT. The North-South (Bz) component exhibited several southward deflections, including two sustained southward orientations late in the period where it reached a maximum deviation of -10 nT. The Phi angle remained predominantly in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation, except for those two periods of sustained -Bz. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 04 Mar due to the ongoing influence of the positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Residual enhancements are likely to persist on 05 Mar, keeping conditions slightly above background levels, before another enhancement is expected on 06 Mar with the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until the very end of the reporting period, when G1 (Minor) storming conditions were reached. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 Mar under +CH HSS influences, with a chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming levels. Mostly unsettled levels are likely on 05 Mar as the current streams influence wanes. A return to active and G1 (Minor) storming levels is likely on 06 Mar due to the onset of the negative polarity CH HSS. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Mar 04 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 04-Mar 06 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 04-Mar 06 2026 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 00-03UT 2.33 2.33 4.33 03-06UT 3.00 2.33 4.33 06-09UT 2.00 1.00 3.33 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 3.33 12-15UT 0.67 1.00 3.00 15-18UT 0.67 2.33 2.67 18-21UT 1.67 2.33 3.00 21-00UT 2.00 3.33 4.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 04-Mar 06 2026 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 04-Mar 06 2026 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 06 Mar. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Mar 02 0144 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 February - 01 March 2026 Solar activity was reached moderate after an M2.3 flare at 25/1154 UTC from Region 4379 (S17, L=205, class/area=Bxo/050 on 26 Feb). A Type II radio sweep was also observed on 25 Feb, associated with a 5-degree filament eruption near S08W27 and a C2.6 flare at 25/0656 UTC. Modeling of the ejecta from the event suggested possible glancing influence at Earth on 28 Feb - 01 Mar. For the remainder of the week, activity was observed between low and very low levels. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was primarily at high levels through the past seven days. Geomagnetic field activity was reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 23 Feb during the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from ~450 km/s to ~700 km/s. Total magnetic field strength peaked around 7 nT, then fell to at or below 5 nT for the remainder of the outlook period. Active conditions were observed over 24-26 Feb and finally to unsettled levels over 27 Feb - 01 Mar as solar wind speeds from the coronal hole gradually waned. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 March - 28 March 2026 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a change for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares throughout the outlook period. Elevated probabilities are related to the flare potential of both currently observed spot groups on the visible disk as well as the potential from regions that are expected to return from the Sun's farside. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 02-08 Mar, 11-12 Mar, 15-19 Mar, and 21-28 Mar due to anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 conditions are likely on 21 Mar; G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 22 Mar; active conditions are likely on 03 Mar, 10 Mar, 12 Mar, 14-15 Mar, 20 Mar, and 23-25 Mar; unsettled conditions are likely on 02 Mar, 04 Mar, 06 Mar, 08-09 Mar, 11 Mar, 13 Mar, 16-19 Mar, and 26-28 Mar. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are associated with the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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