| Warnings |
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Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial
Number: 209
Issue
Time: 2022 Sep 30 1804 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Oct 01: G2 (Moderate) Oct 02: G1 (Minor) Oct 03: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. Space Weather Scales |
| Current Condition and Alerts |
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Issued: 2022 Oct 01 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 September follow. Solar flux 137 and estimated planetary A-index 13. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 01 October was 1. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
| Forecast Discussion |
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Issued: 2022 Oct 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M2 flare at 30/1622 UTC and an M1 flare at 30/1734 UTC from new Region 3112 (N21E72, Dao/beta-delta). However, an accurate classification of Region 3112 was not possible due to limb proximity. Further C-class flares were produced by Regions 3112, 3111 (N27E24, Cso/beta), and 3107 (S24W60, Cai/beta). Slight to moderate growth was observed in Region 3113 (N16W21, Dao/beta) while Regions 3105 (S17W74, Axx/alpha) and 3107 were in decay. The rest of the spotted groups appeared to be stable. New spots were observed emerging in the SE quadrant and was numbered as Region 3114 (S33E30, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or Greater) on 01-03 Oct, particularly from Region 3112. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 01-02 Oct, with high levels likely on 03 Oct due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Looking at ACE solar wind data alone, solar wind speed decreased over the period from approximately 465 km/s to near 400 km/s. Total field decreased from 9 nT to 7 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was positive. A discontinuity in solar wind parameters at 01/0510 UTC was due to a switch to the ACE satellite as primary. Low densities in DSCVR solar wind data necessitated the switch. ACE measurements appeared in better agreement with SOHO/CELIAS/MTOF. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning late on 01 Oct due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS and possible CME influence on 01 Oct. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist through 03 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach minor to moderate (G1-G2) storm levels late on 01 Oct, and minor (G1) storm levels on 02-03 Oct, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences and possible CME effects on 01 Oct. Space Weather Scales |
| Three Day Forecast |
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Issued: 2022 Oct 01 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2022 is 6 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2022 Oct 01 Oct 02 Oct 03 00-03UT 1 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 03-06UT 0 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 06-09UT 0 4 4 09-12UT 1 3 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 4 3 3 18-21UT 5 (G1) 4 3 21-00UT 6 (G2) 5 (G1) 4 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 01-03 Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS onset combined with a CME arrival on 01 Oct. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2022 Oct 01 Oct 02 Oct 03 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Sep 30 2022 1622 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2022 Oct 01 Oct 02 Oct 03 R1-R2 50% 50% 50% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on 01-03 Oct. Space Weather Scales |
| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts |
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Issued: 2022 Sep 27 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 27-Sep 29 2022 is 6 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 27-Sep 29 2022 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29 00-03UT 6 (G2) 4 2 03-06UT 4 4 2 06-09UT 2 3 2 09-12UT 4 3 2 12-15UT 6 (G2) 3 2 15-18UT 5 (G1) 3 2 18-21UT 4 3 2 21-00UT 3 3 2 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on 27 Sep due to combined influences from a negative polarity CH HSS and likely embedded transient feature. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2022 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2022 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29 R1-R2 30% 30% 25% R3 or greater 5% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 27-29 Sep primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 3105 and 3107. Space Weather Scales |
| About AIA Images |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Daily Image AIA 171 |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model |
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| About the HMI Images |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram |
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| About LASCO Images |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video |
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| Space Weather Videos |
