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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Oct 09 0812 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Oct 10: None (Below G1) Oct 11: G2 (Moderate) Oct 12: None (Below G1) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 09 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 08 October follow. Solar flux 119 and estimated planetary A-index 6. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 09 October was 4.00. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 09 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels as Region 4549 (N10W41, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest flare of the period, an M6.7/2b at 08/1548 UTC. Associated with the flare were Type II and Type IV radio emissions, along with an EUV wave seen in GOES/SUVI imagery. The Type II had an estimated speed, reported by Sagamore Hill (USAF RSTN site) of approx. 4,125 km/s. However, analysis of the CME first observed in by SWPC forecasters indicates speeds closer to the 900 km/s range. Modeling suggests this CME is likely to arrive at Earth on 11 Oct. A filament erupted just SW of disk center beginning at approximately 08/1815 UTC; however, no associated CME signatures have been observed in available coronagraph imagery. Region 4545 (N18W46, Dro/beta) continued to exhibit decay. Region 4549 showed separation between the leading and trailing spots, with the east-west oriented delta continuing to bisect the leader spots, increasing the potential for magnetic shearing. Region 4548 (S13W01, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive. A new region rotated onto the east limb in the south and was numbered Region 4551 (S13E71, Dso/beta). .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels (85%) with M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely (55%) through 11 Oct, primarily due to the flaring potential of Region 4549. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels in the beginning of the period, with a peak of approx. 1100 pfu at 08/1250 UTC, and then decreased, crossing below the alert threshold at 08/2145 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated above background levels but still well below the alert threshold. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach normal to moderate levels through 11 Oct. There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold through 11 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at background levels during the first half of the reporting period: solar wind speed averaged near 350 km/s, total field averaged 5 nT, and the Bz component was weakly southward, with a phi angle largely positive. At approximately 09/0440 UTC, total field began slowly increasing, reaching a peak of 12 nT at 09/1045 UTC. Bz deflected predominantly southward with this field increase, reaching -8 nT several times throughout the later half of the period. .Forecast... Solar wind environment disturbances are likely to persist through the remainder of 09 Oct, likely giving way to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream regime on 10 Oct. Additional enhancements are anticipated on 11 Oct due to CMEs that left the Sun on 07-08 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. .Forecast... G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 09 Oct with the arrival of the 06 Oct CME events. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to then persist into and through 10 Oct as a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. G1-G2 are again anticipated on 11 Oct due to additional CME arrivals. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 09 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 09-Oct 11 2026 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 09-Oct 11 2026 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 00-03UT 3.33 4.00 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 2.67 3.67 5.67 (G2) 06-09UT 3.00 3.00 4.33 09-12UT 3.67 3.00 3.00 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 1.67 2.67 15-18UT 5.00 (G1) 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 6.00 (G2) 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 2.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming conditions are expected late on 09 Oct and early on 11 Oct due to the anticipated arrivals of several different CMEs with some potential negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 09-Oct 11 2026 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms through 11 Oct, largely due to the flaring potential of Region 4549. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at 08/1548Z UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 09-Oct 11 2026 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, through 11 Oct, largely due to the flaring potential of Region 4549. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 05 0139 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 September - 04 October 2026 Solar activity was at very low to low levels throughout the summary period. Region 4535 (N11, L=351, class/area Dao/060 on 30 Sep) produced the strongest flare of the period; an impulsive C8.6/1f event at 30/0246 UTC. This event also produced a 523 km/s Type II and a Type IV Sweep. All other regions remained simple and absent of any significant activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 28-30 Sep and 01 Oct with a peak of 5,620 pfu observed at 29/1620 UTC. Moderate levels were observed on 02-04 Oct. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 28-30 Sep and 01-03 Oct with some isolated unsettled periods observed early on 03 Oct. On 04 Oct, solar wind parameters became enhanced due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 22 nT and Bz observed several southward deflections, the maximum being -20 nT early on 04 Oct. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from about 300 km/s to a peak of 644 km/s later on 04 Oct. The phi angle was predominately positive. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 October - 31 October 2026 Solar activity is likely to continue at very low to low levels throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 06-11 Oct, 14-17 Oct, and 23-28 Oct due to anticipated incluence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 22 and 31 Oct. Active levels are likely on 06, 21, and 23 Oct. Unsettled levels are likely on 07, 11-14, and 24 Oct. All increases in geomagnetic activity are associated with anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent, coronal hole HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| Daily Video HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Video HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
| No Current Data LASCO | |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
| No Current Data LASCO | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
| No Current Data LASCO | |
| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
| No Current Data LASCO | |
| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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