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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 May 15 1307 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2026 May 15 1305 UTC Valid To: 2026 May 15 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 May 15 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 14 May follow. Solar flux 106 and estimated planetary A-index 5. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 15 May was 3.33. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 May 15 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels, with C-class flares coming from all three active regions on disk and also from the west limb. Region 4436 (N19W06, Cao/beta) was the source of the largest flare of the day: a long duration C5.1/Sf peaking at 14/1821 UTC (that represented the second peak of a complex flare initiated with emissions from the west limb). Region 4438 (N20W50, Dao/beta) showed significant growth during the period and was responsible for most part of the B- and C-class flares observed. The X-ray background level decreased during the period, as the contribution of the region beyond the west limb diminished as the Sun rotates. Multiple CMEs were observed in the coronagraph imagery during the past 24h. At least three of them had their sources identified in the visible solar disk and their propagation path is currently under analysis: a filament centered near N40W50 lifted off around 14/1230 UTC, another filament with one of its feet anchored near S50W50 lifted off around 15/0100 UTC, and a filament disappearance followed a C3.3 flare at 15/0309 UTC from Region 4436 (also associated with type-III radio sweeps). .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 17 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels through 16 May, potentially reaching high levels on 17 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to stay at background levels through 17 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind parameters indicated the end of the positive polarity CH HSS influences near Earth, with Phi angle sharply transitioning from positive to predominately negative sector values after 14/1950 UTC. Around 15/0530 UTC, the first signs of the anticipated CIR associated with a negative polarity CH HSS were observed: speeds increased from 400 km/s up to about 600 km/s by the end of the period and the total interplanetary magnetic field strength increased to above 10 nT levels. The north-south Bz component reached as south as -10 nT around 15/1010 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continued to be disturbed through 17 May due to the onset and persistence of the negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period. .Forecast... G2 (Moderate) storming conditions are likely on 15 May due to the ongoing impact of a CIR associated with a negative polarity CH HSS. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely to prevail on 16-17 May due to lingering CH HSS influences. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 May 15 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2026 May 15 May 16 May 17 00-03UT 2.33 4.33 3.00 03-06UT 1.67 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 3.00 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 3.33 3.33 3.00 12-15UT 3.67 3.33 3.00 15-18UT 4.33 3.33 3.67 18-21UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 3.33 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 2.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 May due to the CIR associated with a positive polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) storming levels are likely on 16-17 May due to the CH HSS persistence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2026 May 15 May 16 May 17 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2026 May 15 May 16 May 17 R1-R2 40% 30% 25% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 17 May due to the flare potential of the regions on disk. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 May 11 0150 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 May 2026 Solar activity reached high levels on 10 May due to an M5.7/2b flare (R2-Moderate) at 10/1339UTC from Region 4436 (N19, L=330, class/area=Dao/beta on 10 May), the strongest of the period. Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep (est. 650 km/s), Tenflare (550sfu), and a CME signature first observed in coronagraph imagery at 10/1348UTC towards the NE. Analysis and modeling of the event is ongoing at the time of this writing. Region 4424 (N17, L=192, class/area=Eai/160 on 30 Apr) also produced an M-class event with an M1.8 flare (R1-Minor) observed at 04/0133 UTC. The other 10 numbered active regions on this visible disk were either mostly quiet or only produced C-class activity during the past week No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the summary period. Geomagnetic field activity reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 04 May and G1 (Minor) levels on 05 May due to influence from a passing CME. Total magnetic field strength only reached a peak of 11 nT during that time but Bz rotated as far southward as -10 nT and was sustained southward from late on 04 May through midday on 05 May. Despite the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole beginning late on 07 May, the mostly northward Bz component results in only quiet to unsettled conditions through the end of the reporting period. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 May - 06 June 2026 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class activity (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong), throughout the outlook period due to the flare potential of several active regions both currently on the visible disk and those expected to return from the Sun's farside. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 17-20 May due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels over 15-17 May; active conditions are likely on 18 May, 23 May, 27 May, and 03 Jun; unsettled conditions are likely over 11 May, 13 May, 21-22 May, and 28 May - 31 May. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, coronal hole HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| Daily Video HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Video HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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