Space Weather

Warnings
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3250
Issue Time: 2022 Jun 23 1437 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3249
Begin Time: 2022 Jun 18 1235 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1179 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Space Weather Scales
Current Condition and Alerts
Issued: 2022 Jun 24 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Geophysical Alert Message

Solar-terrestrial indices for 23 June follow.
Solar flux 121 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 24 June was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Space Weather Scales
Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2022 Jun 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Region 3038 (N17W54,
Ehi/beta) was responsible for multiple C-class flares. The largest was a
C3 at 23/2023 UTC. Slight decay was observed in Regions 3035 (S17W74,
Axx/alpha), 3038, and 3040 (S14E35, Cso/beta).

Other activity included an approximate 18 degree filament eruption
centered near N25W28 that could be seen lifting off in SUVI 304 imagery
beginning at 24/0756 UTC. We are waiting on further coronagraph imagery
to determine if there is an associated CME.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 26 Jun.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,180 pfu observed at 23/1510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels through 26 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued to be slightly enhanced. Solar wind speed
decreased from approximately 500 km/s to near 410 km/s. Total field
ranged from 4-8 nT while the Bz component was between +/-7 nT. Phi was
oriented in a mostly negative sector.

.Forecast...
Enhancements to the solar wind parameters are expected to continue
through 26 Jun due to CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
through 24 Jun. Active conditions are likely on 25-26 Jun due to
anticipated interaction with a negative polarity CH HSS.
Space Weather Scales
Three Day Forecast
Issued: 2022 Jun 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 24-Jun 26 2022 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 24-Jun 26 2022

Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26
00-03UT 3 3 4
03-06UT 1 2 4
06-09UT 0 2 3
09-12UT 1 2 3
12-15UT 2 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 2
18-21UT 2 4 2
21-00UT 2 4 3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels are expected on 25-26 Jun due to CH HSS
effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 24-Jun 26 2022

Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 24-Jun 26 2022

Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 24-26 Jun.
Space Weather Scales
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2022 Jun 20 0240 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 - 19 June 2022

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Low levels were
observed on 14-19 Jun with the majority of the C-class flares from
Regions 3030 (N18, L=117, class/area Dai/230 on 19 Jun), 3031 (S26,
L=130, class/area Eai/240 on 15 Jun), 3037 (S21, L=140, class/area
Csi/060 on 17 Jun) and 3038 (N15, L=053, class/area Dai/140 on 19
Jun). Moderate (R1-Minor) flare activity was observed on 13 and 16
Jun. Region 3032 (N21, L=106, class/area Dai/180 on 13 Jun) produced
an LDE, M3.4/1n event at 13/0407 UTC. Associated with this event
were Type II (325 km/s) and Type IV Sweep signatures, a 670 sfu
Tenflare and a CME signature analyzed with a potential arrival time
of early on 15 Jun. Region 3031 produced an M1.6 at 16/0353 UTC.
Other than the 13 Jun CME, no additional Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 13-17 Jun. High levels were reached on
18-19 Jun with a maximum flux reading of 2,950 pfu observed at
19/1735 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 13 Jun
due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels were
observed on 14 Jun. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were
observed on 15 Jun due to effects from the 13 Jun CME. 16 Jun saw
unsettled to active levels as CME effects continued. Unsettled to
active levels were observed on 17-19 Jun due to positive polarity CH
HSS influence. During the period, solar wind speeds ranged from a
low of near 440 km/s on 14 Jun to a high of near 650 km/s late on 17
Jun. Total field was at mostly 5-10 nT through the period with the
Bz component at mostly +/- 7 nT. The phi angle remained in a
predominately positive orientation.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 June - 16 July 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a
chance for further M-class flares on 20-24 Jun due to potential
flare activity from Regions 3031 and 3032.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be reach high levels on 20-22 Jun, 27 Jun - 02 Jul and
15-16 Jul due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on
20 Jun, 23-26 Jun, 08-11 Jul and 14-16 Jul with active levels on 24
Jun due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Space Weather Scales
About AIA Images
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes
Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.
Daily Image AIA 171
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 193
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV
Daily Image AIA 304
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II
Daily Video AIA 171
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model
About the HMI Images
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager)
HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities.
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Daily Image HMI Continuum
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram
About LASCO Images
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk.
C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun.
C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun.
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Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Space Weather Videos



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