. Scientific Frontline: Space Weather

Space Weather

Warnings
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 996
Issue Time: 2024 Apr 12 2112 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Apr 13: None (Below G1) Apr 14: G1 (Minor) Apr 15: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Scales
Current Condition and Alerts
Issued: 2024 Apr 13 1210 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Geophysical Alert Message

Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 April follow.
Solar flux 152 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 13 April was 1.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Space Weather Scales
Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Apr 13 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate (R1-Minor) levels. New Region 3637
(S10E74, Cao/beta) produced an impulsive M2.4/Sf at 13/0502 UTC.
Earlier, this region also produced numerous C-class flares. Immediately
to the south of Region 3637, new Region 3738 (S17E74, Hsx/alpha) was
also numbered. Region 3634 (N27W12, Eai/beta) produced a few C-class
flares during the period. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3633
(S08W16, Cso/beta) and 3634. The rest of the spotted regions were either
stable or in decay.

The faint, halo CME from a filament eruption near S16W20 at 12/0020 UTC
was analyzed with an arrival time late on 14 Apr.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 13-15 Apr.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at
normal to moderate levels through 15 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels. Solar wind speed slowly
decreased through the period from a high of near 445 to a low of near
380 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-5 nT while the Bz component varied
between +4 to -3 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
A weakly enhanced solar wind environment is expected on 13 Apr due to CH
HSS influences. Solar wind conditions are expected to become further
enhanced on 14 Apr, through midday 15 Apr, due to the anticipated
arrival of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr in addition to continued CH HSS
influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 13 Apr due to CH HSS influences.
Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 14 Apr, followed by periods
of active conditions on 15 Apr, due to the arrival and passage of CMEs
from 11 and 12 Apr and CH HSS influences.
Space Weather Scales
Three Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Apr 13 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 13-Apr 15 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 13-Apr 15 2024

Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
00-03UT 2.00 1.67 4.00
03-06UT 2.33 1.67 3.67
06-09UT 0.67 4.00 3.33
09-12UT 1.00 3.00 3.00
12-15UT 2.00 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 2.33 4.00 2.33
18-21UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 4.00 2.33

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely
on 14 Apr due to a combination of CME and CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2024

Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 13 2024 0502 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2024

Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 13-15 Apr.
Space Weather Scales
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2024 Apr 08 0055 UTC

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 - 07 April 2024

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 01 Apr due to an M3.9/Sf
flare at 01/0132 UTC from Region 3625 (N13, L=174, class/area=Dai/80
on 01 Apr); the largest event of the period. The remainder of the
period saw low level solar activity with C-class flares observed
from several unremarkable active regions. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed as a result of this periods activity.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 01 Apr, and
unsettled levels on 02-03 Apr, due to weak positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Active conditions were observed again on 04 Apr, with
unsettled levels observed on 05-06 Apr, due to weak negative
polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions and a nominal solar
wind environment prevailed over 07 Apr.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 April - 04 May 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels
throughout the outlook period, with C-class flare activity expected
and a varying chance for M-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 04 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on
09-10 Apr in response to anticipated positive polarity CH HSS
influence. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to
prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
Space Weather Scales
About AIA Images
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes
Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.
Daily Image AIA 171
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 193
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV
Daily Image AIA 304
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II
Daily Video AIA 171
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model
Daily Video AIA 193
Daily Video AIA 304
About the HMI Images
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager)
HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities.
Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.
Daily Image HMI Continuum
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram
About LASCO Images
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk.
C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun.
C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun.
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Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Space Weather Videos



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