Space Weather

Warnings
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 153
Issue Time: 2022 Jan 20 0947 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2022 Jan 20 0541 UTC
Maximum Time: 2022 Jan 20 0601 UTC
End Time: 2022 Jan 20 0612 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.5
Optical Class: 1f
Location: N09W78
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.
Space Weather Scales
Current Condition and Alerts
Issued: 2022 Jan 20 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Geophysical Alert Message

Solar-terrestrial indices for 19 January follow.
Solar flux 105 and estimated planetary A-index 23.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 20 January was 0.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level occurred.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected.
Space Weather Scales
Three Day Forecast
Issued: 2022 Jan 20 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 20-Jan 22 2022 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 20-Jan 22 2022

Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22
00-03UT 3 3 2
03-06UT 1 3 2
06-09UT 1 2 2
09-12UT 0 2 2
12-15UT 1 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 3
18-21UT 3 2 2
21-00UT 3 2 3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2022

Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 20 2022 0601 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2022

Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22
R1-R2 10% 5% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Space Weather Scales
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2022 Jan 17 0208 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 January 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to isolated moderate levels.
Very low to low levels were observed on 10-13 Jan with weak C-class
events observed from beyond the NE limb. An isolated R1 (Minor)
radio blackout event was observed from beyond the NE limb at 14/0203
UTC that peaked at M1. Additional weak C-class activity was observed
from this same unnumbered region on 14 Jan. Region 2925 (S34, L=008,
class/area Dso/240 on 05 Jan) produced a C4/1f at 14/1334 UTC. An
associated CME was observed off the SW limb with a potential
glancing blow expected at Earth on 17 Jan. Low level activity was
observed on 15 Jan from Region 2924 (S31, L=038, class/area Ehi/430
on 08 Jan) and Region 2932 (N31, L=245, class/area Cro/020 on 15
Jan). 16 Jan witnessed additional C-class activity from Region 2930
(N20, L=320, class/area Dso/100 on 16 Jan) and an LDE C2/Sf from
Region 2929. No additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However,
there was a weak enhancement to 1.7 pfu observed at 15/2115 UTC,
possibly associated with shock passage from the 14 Jan CME.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was was
at moderate levels on 10-15 Jan and at high levels on 16 Jan with a
maximum flux of 2,280 pfu observed at 16/1910 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 10 Jan
through midday on 14 Jan. By midday to late on 14 Jan, activity
increased to unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels due
to a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS. Imbedded in this
activity was a possibly transient from an earlier, undetected CME.
Activity levels remained enhanced to G1 (Minor) storm levels on
15-16 Jan due to continued negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 January - 12 February 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a
slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, on 17-21 Jan due to
the complexity of Region 2929. Very low to low levels are expected
on 22 Jan - 02 Feb. Very low to low levels, with a slight chance for
R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, is expected on 03-12 Feb with the
potential return of old Region 2929.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 17-23 Jan and again on 12 Feb due
to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are
expected on 24 Jan - 11 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on
18, 24-26, 28-30 Jan, 05, 10 and 12 Feb, with active levels expected
on 17 Jan, 04, and 11 Feb, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Space Weather Scales
About AIA Images
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes
Daily Image AIA 171
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 193
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV
Daily Image AIA 304
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II
Daily Video AIA 171
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model
About the HMI Images
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager)
HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities.
Daily Image HMI Continuum
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram
About LASCO Images
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk.
C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun.

C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun.
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 171
Log Polar View
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 171 Video
Space Weather Videos



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