Space Weather

Warnings
Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 209
Issue Time: 2022 Sep 30 1804 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 01: G2 (Moderate) Oct 02: G1 (Minor) Oct 03: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Scales
Current Condition and Alerts
Issued: 2022 Oct 01 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Geophysical Alert Message

Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 September follow.
Solar flux 137 and estimated planetary A-index 13.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 01 October was 1.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.
Space Weather Scales
Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2022 Oct 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M2 flare at 30/1622 UTC
and an M1 flare at 30/1734 UTC from new Region 3112 (N21E72,
Dao/beta-delta). However, an accurate classification of Region 3112 was
not possible due to limb proximity. Further C-class flares were produced
by Regions 3112, 3111 (N27E24, Cso/beta), and 3107 (S24W60, Cai/beta).
Slight to moderate growth was observed in Region 3113 (N16W21, Dao/beta)
while Regions 3105 (S17W74, Axx/alpha) and 3107 were in decay. The rest
of the spotted groups appeared to be stable. New spots were observed
emerging in the SE quadrant and was numbered as Region 3114 (S33E30,
Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an
X-class flare (R3-Strong or Greater) on 01-03 Oct, particularly from
Region 3112.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate on 01-02 Oct, with high levels likely on 03 Oct due to CH HSS
influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at
background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Looking at ACE solar wind data alone, solar wind speed decreased over
the period from approximately 465 km/s to near 400 km/s. Total field
decreased from 9 nT to 7 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-4 nT.
Phi angle was positive.

A discontinuity in solar wind parameters at 01/0510 UTC was due to a
switch to the ACE satellite as primary. Low densities in DSCVR solar
wind data necessitated the switch. ACE measurements appeared in better
agreement with SOHO/CELIAS/MTOF.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning late on
01 Oct due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS and possible CME
influence on 01 Oct. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to
persist through 03 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach minor to moderate (G1-G2) storm
levels late on 01 Oct, and minor (G1) storm levels on 02-03 Oct, due to
positive polarity CH HSS influences and possible CME effects on 01 Oct.
Space Weather Scales
Three Day Forecast
Issued: 2022 Oct 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2022 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2022

Oct 01 Oct 02 Oct 03
00-03UT 1 5 (G1) 5 (G1)
03-06UT 0 5 (G1) 5 (G1)
06-09UT 0 4 4
09-12UT 1 3 3
12-15UT 2 3 3
15-18UT 4 3 3
18-21UT 5 (G1) 4 3
21-00UT 6 (G2) 5 (G1) 4

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 01-03
Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS onset combined with a CME arrival on
01 Oct.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2022

Oct 01 Oct 02 Oct 03
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 30 2022 1622 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2022

Oct 01 Oct 02 Oct 03
R1-R2 50% 50% 50%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight
chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on 01-03 Oct.
Space Weather Scales
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2022 Sep 27 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 27-Sep 29 2022 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 27-Sep 29 2022

Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29
00-03UT 6 (G2) 4 2
03-06UT 4 4 2
06-09UT 2 3 2
09-12UT 4 3 2
12-15UT 6 (G2) 3 2
15-18UT 5 (G1) 3 2
18-21UT 4 3 2
21-00UT 3 3 2

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on 27
Sep due to combined influences from a negative polarity CH HSS and
likely embedded transient feature.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2022

Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2022

Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29
R1-R2 30% 30% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 27-29 Sep primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 3105 and
3107.
Space Weather Scales
About AIA Images
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes
Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.
Daily Image AIA 171
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 193
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV
Daily Image AIA 304
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II
Daily Video AIA 171
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model
About the HMI Images
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager)
HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities.
Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.
Daily Image HMI Continuum
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram
About LASCO Images
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk.
C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun.
C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun.
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Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Space Weather Videos



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