. Scientific Frontline: Space Weather

Space Weather

Warnings
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4260
Issue Time: 2023 Feb 06 0855 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4259
Valid From: 2023 Feb 06 0220 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2023 Feb 06 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Scales
Current Condition and Alerts
Issued: 2023 Feb 06 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Geophysical Alert Message

Solar-terrestrial indices for 05 February follow.
Solar flux 144 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 06 February was 3.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Space Weather Scales
Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Feb 06 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low to low. X-ray background levels remain close
to C-levels allowing for minor fluctuations to reach C-class. Slight
growth was observed in Region 3211 (S17W50, Dao/beta). New Regions 3213
(N29E20, Bxo/beta), 3214 (N10E40, Cro/beta), 3215 (N21E64, Bxo/beta),
and 3216 (N24E74, Hsx/alpha) were numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares over 06-08 Feb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate over 06-08 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Solar wind speed increased from approximately 350 km/s to near 440 km/s.
Total field increased from 6 nT to 13 nT before decreasing to near 7 nT.
The Bz component was between +8/-11 nT. Phi angle was predominantly
negative.

.Forecast...
HSS conditions are expected to continue through 08 Feb.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS onset.

.Forecast...
Quiet to active levels are expected on 06-07 Feb followed by quiet to
unsettled levels on 08 Feb as CH HSS conditions persist.
Space Weather Scales
Three Day Forecast
Issued: 2023 Feb 06 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 06-Feb 08 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 06-Feb 08 2023

Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb 08
00-03UT 3.67 4.00 3.00
03-06UT 3.67 3.67 3.33
06-09UT 2.67 3.00 2.33
09-12UT 3.33 2.67 2.67
12-15UT 3.67 2.33 2.00
15-18UT 2.33 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 2.33 2.67 2.33
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels are expected on 06-07 Feb due to CH HSS
effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 06-Feb 08 2023

Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb 08
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 06-Feb 08 2023

Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb 08
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on Feb 06-08.
Space Weather Scales
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2023 Feb 06 0112 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 January - 05 February 2023

Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C6.6
flare at 05/0326 UTC from an unnumbered region from around the east
limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed throughout the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active
conditions were observed on 02 Feb, unsettled levels were observed
on 30-31 Jan and 01, 03-04 Feb due to CH HSS influence. Quiet
conditions prevailed on 05 Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 February - 04 March 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for
M-class flare activity (R1-R2) throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the duration of the
outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels. Active conditions are likely on 07-08 Feb. Unsettled levels
are likely on 06, 09-10, 18-19, 22-24, 27 Feb and 02 Mar. Increased
geomagnetic activity is in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.
Space Weather Scales
More Space Weather Information
Space Weather Data
About AIA Images
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes
Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.
Daily Image AIA 171
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Å | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 193
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
193Å | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV
Daily Image AIA 304
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
304Å | chromosphere, transition region | He II
Daily Video AIA 171
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model
Daily Video AIA 304
About the HMI Images
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager)
HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities.
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Daily Image HMI Continuum
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram
About LASCO Images
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk.
C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun.
C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun.
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Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Space Weather Videos



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