| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2025 Nov 12 1251 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 12 1240 UTC Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issue Time: 2025 Nov 12 1151 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected Extension to Serial Number: 118 Valid From: 2025 Nov 11 1028 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 12 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2025 Nov 12 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 11 November follow. Solar flux 168 and estimated planetary A-index 7. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 12 November was 7.00. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been severe. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G4 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching the S3 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be severe. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G4 level are expected. Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level are likely. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2025 Nov 12 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels after the end of the X5.1/3B flare at 11/1251, from Region 4274 (N24W51, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Only low-level C-class X-ray activity was observed. The other six regions present at the visible solar disk remained stable or showed slight decay during the period. No new CME was observed at the available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be high, with R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) expected and further X-class (R3-Strong) activity likely on 12-14 Nov, mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4274. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux started the period at high levels, with a maximum of 1,090 pfu at 11/1220 UTC, and returned to moderate levels shortly after 12/0500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux were elevated to S2 (moderate) levels following the X5.1/3B flare at 11/1004 UTC. With the arrival of the shock from a CME that left the Sun on 10 Nov, S3 (Strong) conditions were briefly observed with a peak flux of 1,460 sfu at 12/0215 UTC. Flux levels decreased below the S3 (Strong) threshold at 12/0315 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 12-14 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue above S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for S3 (Strong) on 12-13 Nov due to multiple CMEs passing by Earth. S1 (Minor) level are likely on 14 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a CME that left the Sun on 10 Nov. An abrupt increase in solar wind speeds and total magnetic field strength were observed at 11/2338 UTC. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 63 nT during the sheath of the CME and transitioned to the driver after 12/0254 UTC. The Bz component reached as far south as -55 nT at 11/2357 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to a recorded peak of ~740 km/s before the faraday cup became contained by high energy proton flux after 12/0053 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels over 12 Nov as CME influence continues. Additional enhancements are anticipated late on 12 Nov and into 13 Nov from the arrival of another CME that left the Sun on 10 Nov. Waning influence from CME activity is likely over 14 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm levels due to effects from a CME that left the Sun on 10 Nov. .Forecast... G1-G4 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storm levels, with a chance for G5 (Extreme), are expected on 12 Nov due to continued influence from a CME that left the Sun on 10 Nov and the anticipated onset of a CME that left the Sun on 11 Nov. G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels are likely to continue into 13 Nov as CME activity persists. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels are likely on 14 Nov as activity wanes. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2025 Nov 12 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8.67 (NOAA Scale G4). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 is 8.67 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 00-03UT 8.67 (G4) 6.67 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 8.33 (G4) 6.33 (G2) 4.00 06-09UT 7.00 (G3) 6.00 (G2) 3.33 09-12UT 7.00 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 12-15UT 6.00 (G2) 4.00 3.33 15-18UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 3.00 18-21UT 7.67 (G4) 4.33 3.00 21-00UT 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.33 Rationale: Up to G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storms are expected on 12 Nov due to CME influences. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13 Nov and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14 Nov due to CME effects. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 S1 or greater 99% 75% 55% Rationale: S1-S2 (Minor to Moderate) or greater solar radiation storms are expected over 12-14 Nov. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 R1-R2 80% 80% 80% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected and R3 (Strong) radio blackouts are likely over 12-14 Nov. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2025 Nov 10 0522 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 November 2025 Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 4274 (N25, L=275, class/area=Ekc/900 on 09 Nov) was the largest and most complex, and responsible for the majority of major events during the past week. On 03 Nov, high levels were observed due to five M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares that were produced by Region 4274. Two flares had associated CMEs that were identified as containing potentially Earth-directed components, an M1.6 (R1) at 03/0925 UTC and an M5.0 (R2)at 03/1011 UTC. Arrival of the CMEs at Earth were estimated over 06-07 Nov. High activity levels continued on 04 Nov, with the high flare being an X1.8/1b (R3-Strong) flare at 04/1751 UTC from Region 4274. Associated with the flare was a Tenflare and Type IV radio sweep. Region 4276 (S17, L=240, class/area=Dai/180 on 07 Nov) also produced an X-class flare (R3) with an X1.1 flare at 04/2201 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep and CME. Analysis of the ejecta from these events suggested potential to affect Earth over 06-07 Nov. High solar activity was again observed on 05 Nov following an M 7.4/2N (R2) flare at 05/1119 UTC and an M8.6/2B (R2) flare at 05/2207 UTC from Region 4274. Tenflares and CMEs were associated with both events. Arrival at Earth was estimated over 07-08 Nov. Moderate levels were observed on 06-07 Nov due to an M1.1 (R1) flare at 06/0431 UTC from Region 4276 and an M1.7/1n (R1) at 07/0716 UTC flare from Region 4274. Associated with the M1.7 was a Type II (est 1,169 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep alongside a CME that was likely to propogate off of the Sun-Earth line. Low solar activity was observed on 08 Nov. Finally, on 09 Nov, Region 4274 produced an X1.7 (R3) flare at 09/0735 UTC. A complicated CME signature was observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery. Analysis and modelling of the event suggested potential for arrival at Earth over 11-12 Nov. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit between 03-09 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 03-05 Nov and at moderate levels on 06-09 Nov. The maximum flux of the greater than 2 MeV electrons measured by GOES-19 satellite during the week was 2,440 pfu at 04/1805 UTC. Geomagnetic field activity was between quiet to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels. Active conditions on 03 Nov were observed due to weak influence from a CME that left the Sun on 31 Oct. Unsettled conditions were observed on 04 Oct due to positive polarity coronal hole influence. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions late on 05 Nov and G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions early on 06 Nov resulted from the onset of a CME that left the Sun on 03 Nov. G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed late on 06 Nov and in to 07 Nov as more CMEs that left the Sun over 03-04 Nov passed by Earth. G2 conditions were again observed on 08 Nov due to the passage of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Nov. Only quiet to unsettled condtions were observed on 09 Nov. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 November - 06 December 2025 Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-Minor), with a chance for high (R2-R3/Moderate-Strong), over 10-18 Nov, primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 4274 and 4276. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at low levels, with a chance for moderate activity. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels over 10-13 Nov following a combination of CME and coronal hole influence. High levels are again likely on 27 Nov-02 Dec due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 11 Nov due to anticipated influence from both a negative polarity coronal hole and a CME that left the Sun 07 Nov. G2 conditions are likely on 11-12 Nov due to anticipated influence from CMEs that left the Sun on 09 Nov. Unsettled conditions are likely over 13 Nov as CME influence wanes. Recurrent coronal hole influence is likely to cause G1 conditions over 25-27 Nov and 02-04 Dec; active condition on 20 Nov, 24 Nov, 29-30 Nov, and 05 Dec; unsettled conditions on 16 Nov, 21 Nov, 28 Nov, 01 Dec, and 06 Dec. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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