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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Jul 10 1151 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5381 Valid From: 2026 Jul 09 1119 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 11 0300 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Jul 10 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 09 July follow. Solar flux 110 and estimated planetary A-index 16. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 10 July was 3.00. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Jul 10 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity declined to very low levels, with only occasional B-class flaring observed. The largest event of the period was a B7.3 flare from Region 4482 at 09/1349 UTC. There are currently five numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4482 (S09E07, Dko/beta-gamma) appears to be in decline, exhibiting flux cancellation and the loss of several trailing spots, as well as penumbral loss in those that remain; however, it still retains its mixed polarity configuration and a robust mature leading spot. Region 4485 (S10W48, Dai/beta-gamma) continues to show new flux emergence. The remaining regions are stable or in decline and unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 12 July, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares due to the complexity of regions 4482 and 4485. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels very late in the period, with a peak flux of 1150 pfu observed at 10/1120 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 10-12 July under high-speed stream influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to remain at background levels through 12 July. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Solar wind speeds exhibited a gradual build-up in the first half of the period, climbing to around 600 km/s by 10/0400 UTC. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) was predominantly between 6 and 13 nT. The North-South (Bz) component was highly variable but spent the vast majority of the period deflected southward, with notable sustained excursions reaching a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT. The phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector. .Forecast... High-speed stream enhancements are expected to subside on 11 July. Another enhancement is anticipated late 12 July into 13 July due to possible glancing influences from a CME that departed the Sun on 09 July. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to active under the influence of the high-speed stream. .Forecast... Geomagnetic conditions are anticipated to reach mostly unsettled and active levels through the remainder of 10 July and early 11 July under continued -CH HSS influences, with a chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming. Quiet conditions should briefly return by midday 11 July through early 12 July. Active conditions are subsequently anticipated late 12 July into early 13 July due to the possible glancing impacts of the 09 July CME, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods, though confidence on timing remains low. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Jul 10 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 10-Jul 12 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 10-Jul 12 2026 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 00-03UT 2.00 3.67 3.33 03-06UT 3.00 2.00 3.00 06-09UT 3.67 2.00 2.67 09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 15-18UT 2.33 2.67 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.67 3.33 21-00UT 3.67 3.00 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Active conditions are likely 10-11 Jul due to coronal hole high-speed stream effects and on 12 Jul due to glancing influences from a CME that left the Sun on 09 Jul. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 10-Jul 12 2026 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 10-Jul 12 2026 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts 10-12 Jul due to the potential of Regions 4482 and 4485. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Jul 06 0131 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 June - 05 July 2026 Solar activity was at moderate levels on 29 Jun with one M-class flare (below M5), high levels on 30 Jun-05 Jul with 42 M-class flares below M5, 5 above M5, and 2 X-class flares in total across the six days. Five of the M-flares came from Region 4478 (S05, L=77, class/area=Fki/1550 on 01 Jul), four from Region 4480 (S16, L=100, class/area=Esi/150 on 02 Jul), and three from Region 4475 (S09, L=129, class/area=Eki/250 on 25 Jun). All of the remaining M-flares, plus the X1.1 at 30/2050 UTC, came from Region 4479 (N17, L=96, class/area=Eki/720 on 02 Jul). The largest flare of the period, an X1.3 at 04/2041 UTC, came from Region 4482 (S08, L=302, class/area=Cso/80 on 05 Jul). The X1.3 was associated with a tenflare (peak of 890 sfu), a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 931 km/s), and a Type IV radio sweep; the resulting CME was first observed in GOES/CCOR1 at roughly 04/2245 UTC. Analysis indicated a trajectory behind Earth’s orbit with no impacts at Earth expected. The X1.1 was associated with a tenflare (peak of 410 sfu), a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1496 km/s), and a Type IV radio sweep. This flare produced a full halo CME that became visible in CCOR1 at approximately 30/2145 UTC, and modeling indicated an arrival at Earth early 03 Jul. Several M-flares were also associated with CMEs. A long duration M4.2/sf at 02/0156 UTC was associated with a tenflare (peak of 410 sfu) and a resulting CME was observed in LASCO C2 at approximately 02/0236 UTC; an M1.3/1n from 01/1008 also produced a CME (first observed in CCOR1 at approximately 01/1400 UTC), but modeling indicated that it would be overtaken by the M4.2 CME, with a joint arrival at Earth late 05 Jul/early 06 Jul. An M6.7 at 03/1811 UTC was associated with a tenflare (peak of 160 sfu) and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1831 km/s), with a resulting CME observed in C2 at approximately 03/1830 UTC. Modeling indicated that this eruption is likely to miss Earth or produce only a very minor glancing blow on 08 Jul. The following M6.3/2b at 03/1859 UTC was also associated with a tenflare (peak of 780 sfu) and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 387 km/s); however the resulting CME was so close in time and source location to the M6.7 that its structure was difficult to impossible to distinguish separately. Lastly, an M1.4 at 05/1645 UTC was associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 959 km/s) and a resulting CME first observed in LASCO C2 at 05/1648 UTC; modeling indicates that the CME should pass well ahead of Earth’s orbit. An M5.8 at 30/1257 UTC, an M1.1 at 01/1431 UTC, and a M1.8/sf at 01/2022 were also associated with tenflares (peaks of 110 sfu, 230 sfu, and 180 sfu, respectively), but no eruptions were detected in available imagery. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit; however, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated (peak of 1.76 pfu at 04/0335 UTC) beginning late on 03 Jul and continuing through 04 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 28-30 Jun, with a peak flux of 5,690 pfu at 30/1315 UTC. Flux values were at low/normal to moderate levels on 01-04 Jul. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 29 Jun. An isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming conditions was observed on 30 Jun-01 Jul, due to the arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 26-27 Jun. Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated though never got above 430 km/s. Bz was mostly northward, but Bt reached eventually reached a max of 19 nT at 01/0124 UTC. The CME’s passage was largely finished by the end of 01 Jul UTC day, and the geomagnetic field activity was quiet throughout 02 Jul and into 03 Jul. At 03/1119 UTC, a CME shock was observed, most likely the X1.1 eruption from 30 Jun, followed by another enhancement at 02/2100 that could either be the main driver of the X1.1 CME or the CMEs from 01-02 Jul. Solar wind speeds initially jumped to around 460 km/s on 03 Jul then gradually increased to around 640 km/s on 04 Jul. Bt followed a similar pattern, initially jumping to 11 nT on 03 Jul and then eventually increasing to a max of 24 nT on 04 Jul. Bz was rather variable or northward throughout 03 Jul, but deflected sharply southward at 04/0105 UTC, reaching a max deflection of -19 nT, which it then slowly rotated out of for the next 8 hours. G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) storming conditions were observed throughout the entirety of 04 Jul, returning to unsettled to active levels on 05 Jul. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 July - 01 August 2026 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 06 Jul - 17 Jul as Regions 4478, 4479, and 4480 rotate beyond the western limb on 05-06 Jul and no high-flaring regions are expected to return. Regions 4478, 4479, and 4480 are anticipated to return 18-20 Jul and increase the chances for M-class activity for the remainder of the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to reach high levels on 06-07 Jul, 11-13 Jul, and 24-27 Jul. Increases in the electron flux are expected due to the anticipated influence of several recurrent CH HSSs. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 07-08 Jul, 12-21 Jul, and 24-31 Jul. Active conditions are likely on 06 Jul, 09-11 Jul, 22-23 Jul, and 01 Aug; other than 06 Jul, all enhanced conditions are due to the anticipated effects of several recurrent CH HSSs. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| Daily Video HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Video HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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