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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Feb 15 0514 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5256 Valid From: 2026 Feb 14 2000 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Feb 15 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 15 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 14 February follow. Solar flux 117 and estimated planetary A-index 11. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 15 February was 2.67. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 15 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period was C1.3 at 15/0727 UTC from a plage region located near S13W46. Region 4377 (N06E52, Cro/beta) developed a few additional rudimentary spots, while the remaining regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 17 Feb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 15-16 Feb, before increasing to high levels on 17 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 17 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were consistent with the onset of CIR effects preceding positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 15 nT. The Bz component was sustained southward, by as much as -14 nT, between 14/1830-15/0120 UTC. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from a low of around 370 km/s to a peak of around 700 km/s by the end of the period. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 17 Feb due to CIR influences, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Weak CME enhancements are possible on 15 Feb as a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to CIR effects preceding positive polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are expected on 15 Feb due to CIR effects and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Weak CME enhancements are possible on 15 Feb as a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 16 Feb, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm periods, under continued positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 17 Feb as CH HSS influences begin to wane. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 15 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 15-Feb 17 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 15-Feb 17 2026 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 00-03UT 5.33 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 5.33 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 3.00 4.00 2.67 09-12UT 2.67 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 5.67 (G2) 3.67 2.00 15-18UT 3.67 2.67 1.67 18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 1.67 21-00UT 3.67 3.33 2.67 Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are expected on 15 Feb due to CIR effects and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Weak CME enhancements are possible on 15 Feb as a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 16 Feb, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm periods, under continued positive polarity CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 15-Feb 17 2026 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 15-Feb 17 2026 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 R1-R2 10% 10% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 17 Feb. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Feb 09 0534 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 February 2026 Solar activity reached high levels on 02-04 Feb, moderate levels on 05 and 08 Feb, and low levels on 06-07 Feb. The flare activity was dominated by Region 4366 (N14, L=204, class/area Fkc/1100 on 03 Feb). This region produced 31 C-class flares, 38 M-class (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), and four X-class (R3-Strong) flares. The X-class flares included: an X2.8 at 02/0036 UTC, an X1.6 at 02/0814 UTC, an X1.5 at 03/1408 UTC, and an X4.2 at 04/1213 UTC. Region 4366 also added four M-class flares that were greater than the M5 level. These included: an M5.2 at 02/0251 UTC, an M6.7 at 02/1124 UTC, an M7.2/1n at 03/0701 UTC, and an M7.2 at 03/1456 UTC. The remaining 34 M-class flares produced by Region 4366 were at the R1/R2 levels, ranging from M1.1 to M4.9. Surprisingly, very few radio emissions were observed in association with the increased flare activity. There were only three F10.7 cm radio bursts recorded during the week. The first was a burst of 140 sfu associated with the X1.5 flare at 03/1408 UTC, second was a 110 sfu burst that accompanied the M2.2 flare at 05/1934 UTC, and last, a 440 sfu burst that coincided with the M2.7 flare at 08/1353 UTC. The only other radio signature of note was a Type II radio sweep that was detected by USAF observatories starting at about 02/0000 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 955 km/s. No other radio signatures were noted. Other activity included a large, slow moving filament eruption centered near N18W30 that began at 03/0400 UTC as seen in SUVI 304 imagery. An associated CME was observed off the NW limb at 03/1836 UTC. There was another narrow eruption noted off the NE, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1426 UTC. This event was likely a sympathetic eruption triggered by the X4.2, starting at approximately 04/1350 UTC near N15W22 between Regions 4366 and 4367 (N09, L=174, class/area Cao/50 on 03 Feb). There is a slight potential of minor glancing blows from these eruptions early on 09 Feb. A coronal mass ejection was observed off the south/southwest limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 05/1548 UTC. The source is likely associated with an M1.8/1N flare from Region 4362 (S17, L=207, class/area Dao/50 on 07 Feb) that peaked at 05/1513 UTC. Surface signatures in SUVI 284 imagery showed a faint southerly deflected EUV wave. Model output suggests a glancing effect late on 08 Feb to early on 09 Feb. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit on 02-08 Feb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 02, 03, 04, and 08 Feb, with a peak flux value of 13,970 pfu at 04/1605 UTC. Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Feb following the arrival of a CME from an X8.1 flare that originated from Region 4366 at 01/2357 UTC. Conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels on 02-03 Feb and for the first half of 04 Feb before increasing to active levels following the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS). Quiet to active conditions were observed on 06-07 Feb with combined influence from a negative polarity CH HSS and a possible passing transient. Quiet to unsettled levels returned by 08 Feb as -CH HSS effects lingered. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 February - 07 March 2026 Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with further M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares expected and a chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) on 09-10 Feb as Region 4366 transits the western limb. Low levels, with a chance for M-class flares, are expected on 11-22 Feb. An increase to moderate to high levels is once again likely on 23-28 Feb as Region 4366 returns to the visible disk. Conditions should again return to low to moderate levels on 01-07 Mar as old Region 4366 rotates to the far side once again. There is a chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels through 12 Feb as Region 4366 transits the visible disk and beyond. Levels are likely to be below the S1 (Minor) level on 12-22 Feb. An increase to above the S1 (Minor) storm levels 23-28 Feb is possible as Region 4366 returns to the visible disk. Chances decrease on 01-07 Mar as old Region 4366 rotates to the far side once again. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 09-10 Feb, 16-21 Feb, 24-25 Feb, and 05-07 Mar as CH HSS influence sporadically continue. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 09-10 Feb as CH HSS influence decreases. Barring the potential for CME activity, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 11-15 Feb, 22-23 Feb, and 26 Feb - 04 Mar. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 16-21 Feb, 24-25 Feb, and 05-07 Mar due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS effects. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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