. Scientific Frontline: Space Weather

Space Weather


Warnings and Alerts
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 24 1155 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5269
Valid From: 2026 Feb 21 2230 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Feb 24 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Scales
Current Condition and Alerts
Issued: 2026 Feb 24 1205 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Geophysical Alert Message

Solar-terrestrial indices for 23 February follow.
Solar flux 108 and estimated planetary A-index 23.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 24 February was 2.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Space Weather Scales
Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2026 Feb 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1.0 flare at 24/0733 UTC
from a region just beyond the SE limb near S21. The solar disk was
largely spotless through the period with some short-lived pore emergence
in the SE quadrant. X-ray flux background gradually increased indicating
possible new or returning regions just beyond the east limb. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is anticipated to remain very low to low on 24-26 Feb,
with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for isolated
M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels, with a peak of 4,960 pfu at 23/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at or near background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach moderate to high
levels on 24-26 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels through 26 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameter continued under negative polarity CH HSS influence.
Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 700 km/s to near 600 km/s.
Total field ranged from 3-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5
nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
Disturbed solar wind conditions are likely to prevail over 24-26 Feb due
to persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to persistent CH
HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on
24-26 Feb as negative polarity CH HSS influences persist.
Space Weather Scales
Three Day Forecast
Issued: 2026 Feb 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 24-Feb 26 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 24-Feb 26 2026

Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb 26
00-03UT 3.00 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 3.67 4.00 3.00
06-09UT 2.67 3.33 2.67
09-12UT 2.33 2.67 2.33
12-15UT 3.00 2.33 2.00
15-18UT 2.00 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 2.00 2.00 2.33
21-00UT 3.67 3.00 3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 24-Feb 26 2026

Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 24-Feb 26 2026

Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb 26
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Space Weather Scales
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2026 Feb 23 0204 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 - 22 February 2026

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. The largest
event was an M2.5 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/0435 UTC from a location
beyond the east limb. A Type II radio sweep (est. 310 km/s) was
observed on 18 Feb and associated with a large eruption just beyond
the southeast limb. Only low-levels C-class activity was observed
over 17-23 Feb. The sun ended the summary period free of sunspots on
the visible disk for the first time since 2022.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels over 16-20 Feb following sustained higher wind speeds
from a positive polarity coronal hole. Normal to moderate levels
were observed over 21-22 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity reached a peak of G2 (Moderate) levels on
16 Feb due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to
unsettled levels were observed over 17-19 Feb. Active levels over
20-21 Feb were likely associated with transient passage. By 22 Feb,
a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS increased geomagnetic
conditions up to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Wind speeds
were observed between 600-700 km/s on 22 Feb as the high speed
stream set in.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 February - 21 March 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at very low, with a good change for
C-class flares and a slight change for M-class flare
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 23 Feb - 03 Mar, 06-08 Mar, 11-12
Mar, 15-19 Mar, and 21 Mar due to anticipated influence of multiple
recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is
likely to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) levels
on 21 Mar.;G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 23 Feb,
10 Mar, 14 Mar, and 20 Mar; active levels are likely on 24 Feb,
05-06 Mar, 12-13 Mar, 15-16 Mar, and 19 Mar; unsettled levels are
likely over 25 Feb, 07 Mar, 09 Mar, 11 Mar, and 17-18 Mar. All
increases in geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to expected
influence from multiple, recurrent coronal hole HSSs. The remainder
of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.
Space Weather Scales
About AIA Images
The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes
Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size.
Daily Image AIA 171
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Ã… | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
171Ã… | quiet corona, upper transition region | Fe IX
Daily Image AIA 193
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
193Ã… | corona and hot flare plasma | Fe XII, XXIV
Daily Image AIA 304
Channel | Region of atmosphere | Primary ion(s)
304Ã… | chromosphere, transition region | He II
Daily Video AIA 171
Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model
Daily Video AIA 193
Daily Video AIA 304
About the HMI Images
(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager)
HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Ã… with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities.
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Daily Image HMI Continuum
Daily Image HMI Magnetogram
About LASCO Images
LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk.
C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun.
C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun.
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Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304
Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video
Space Weather Videos
Space Weather Information

Demystifying Space Weather

An article by Scientific Frontline
Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather”

Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society.



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