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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2026 Jul 13 1027 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 3715 Begin Time: 2026 Jul 10 1126 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3729 pfu Yesterday's max: 3,730 pfu Yesterday's max: 3,730 pfu Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Jul 13 1505 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 July follow. Solar flux 107 and estimated planetary A-index 18. The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 13 July was 2.00. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Jul 13 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels, with the largest flare of the period being a C2.6 at 12/1358 UTC from Region 4485 (S10W95, Eac/beta-gamma). This region has reached the west limb, but will still be a major contributor to the flare probabilities for the next day or so. The remaining numbered regions were mostly unchanged or showed signs of decay. A new spot has breached the eastern limb and was numbered Region 4489 (S07E67, Hax/alpha). Following additional modeling and analysis of the CME from 10 Jul, a portion of the CME could graze Earth late on 13 Jul to early on 14 Jul. Confidence is low on the arrival time and intensity, and any impacts felt are expected to be minimal. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 13 Jul, mainly due to the complexity and flare potential of Region 4485 as it transits the western limb. By 14 Jul, Region 4485 is expected to have rotated far enough behind the limb to minimize most flare activity impacts on the visible side of the Sun. Low levels are then likely, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 14 Jul, decreasing further on 15 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels, with a peak flux of 3,729 pfu observed at 12/1220 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 13-14 Jul and normal to moderate levels on 15 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to remain at background levels through 15 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weakening negative polarity CH HSS influence combined with embedded transient effects, likely the anticipated 09 Jul CME. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from over 525 km/s to end the period near 435 km/s. The Bz component was largely neutral to mostly northward, while Bt varied from 2 to 9 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in the negative orientation. .Forecast... The solar wind parameters are anticipated to become enhanced again late on 13 Jul with the possible arrival of the 10 Jul CME. Enhanced levels are then possible on 14 Jul as CME effects persist through the end of the day. A slow return to near background levels is expected by mid to late in the day on 15 Jul. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to the combined influence from the negative polarity CH HSS and the likely arrival of the anticipated CME from 09 Jul. .Forecast... Later on 13 Jul into early on 14 Jul, unsettled to active levels are expected, with a chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm levels, with the potential arrival of the 10 Jul CME. A slow return to near background levels is expected to bring quiet to unsettled levels back by mid to late in the day on 15 Jul. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Jul 13 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 13-Jul 15 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 13-Jul 15 2026 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 00-03UT 2.00 4.00 2.67 03-06UT 2.00 4.33 3.33 06-09UT 2.67 3.33 3.00 09-12UT 2.33 3.33 1.67 12-15UT 1.67 3.00 1.67 15-18UT 2.00 2.67 1.33 18-21UT 3.33 2.33 1.67 21-00UT 4.33 2.33 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2026 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 13-Jul 15 2026 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 R1-R2 25% 20% 15% R3 or greater 5% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 13 Jul, decreasing to a slight chance on 14-15 Jul as Region 4485 rotates out of view on the western limb. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Jul 13 0507 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 July 2026 Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels (R1-Minor). Region 4482 (S09, L=296, class/area=Eki/420 on 08 Jul) produced the strongest flare of the reporting period, an M4.01/1b flare at 07/1419 UTC. Type II (est. 593 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were associated with the event. Subsequent coronagraph imagery only contained a faint identifiable CME signature in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. No Earth-directed component was identified in the analysis of the event. An additional Type II sweep (est. 1,441 km/s) was on 07 Jul at 07/2256 UTC and associated with an eruptive event on the W limb. Near that time, near the Sun's E limb (N18E75), a large filament eruption (~15 degrees) was observed beginning around 07/2116 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. The subsequent CME was analyzed and determined to not be Earth-directed. The region only produced two other M-class flares, an M1.5/1n flare at 08/1756 UTC and an M1.1/Sf at 09/0227 UTC during its transit across the visible disk. Region 4485 (S10, L=353, class/area=Dac/180 on 11 Jul) produced a CME on 09 Jul, associated with a C2.7 flare at 09/0713 UTC, that was analyzed and modeled. The results suggested influence from the CME should be observed at Earth on 12 Jul. Other activity from this region included a Type II radio sweep on 12 Jul, with the associated CME likely to pass by Earth on 16 Jul. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 06-07 Jul following influence from combined effects of a CME and positive polarity CH HSS. High levels were again observed on 10-12 Jul following influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Moderate levels were observed on 08-09 Jul. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 06-08 Jul. Influence of a negative polarity CH HSS increased wind speeds to over 600 km/s 09 Jul and through 10 Jul. This resulted in periods of active conditions. Quiet conditions were observed on 11 Jul as solar winds steadily decreased. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed on 12 Jul due to the passage of a mild CME that left the Sun on 09 Jul. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 July - 08 August 2026 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over the outlook period due to multiple complex active regions both on the visible disk and the return of significantly complex regions from the Sun's farside. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 13-14 Jul, 24-27 Jul, and 06-08 Aug due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal holes. Normal to moderate levels are likely throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active levels are likely over 13-14 Jul, 16 Jul due to potential CME influence and again on 22 Jul, 01 Aug, And 04-05 Aug due to anticipated coronal hole influence. Unsettled level are likely on 15 Jul, 23 Jul, 02 Aug, and 06 Aug. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| Daily Video HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Video HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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