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| Warnings and Alerts | |
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Issue Time: 2025 Dec 03 1022 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2025 Dec 03 1022 UTC Valid To: 2025 Dec 03 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Onset Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issue Time: 2025 Dec 03 0706 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 3569 Begin Time: 2025 Nov 25 1450 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 8535 pfu Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. Space Weather Scales |
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| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 03 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 02 December follow. Solar flux 200 and estimated planetary A-index 9. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 03 December was 3.00. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely. Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 03 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares. Region 4294 (S15E16, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest region on the disk but is appearing to be simplifying magnetically. Region 4296 (S14E36, Ekc/beta-delta), on the other hand, gained a delta region in its intermediary region, though with no corresponding increase in flare activity as of yet. New flux emerged along the eastern side of Region 4298 (S16E03, Cao/beta), resulting in several C-flares throughout the reporting period. Region 4299 (N23E41, Dac/beta-delta), also developed a delta region in its primary spot but no appreciable shear was observed. Region 4301 (S11W41, Axx/alpha) developed, was numbered, but was otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Isolated to occasional M-class flares are expected (75%) through 05 Dec, with a chance for X-class flares (30%), given past flare history and the potential of current active regions on the disk. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit continued at high levels with a peak flux of 8,540 particle flux units reached near 02/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to at high levels, although gradually decreasing, through 03 Dec. A return to moderate levels 04-05 Dec is likely with the initial onset of fast solar wind associated with a coronal hole high speed stream and/or shock arrival from the 01 Dec CME. An enhancement to the 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit due to the aforementioned X1.9 event from 01 Dec cannot be ruled out as sometimes events from the eastern limb take tens of hours to days to reach Earth. This combined with the flare potential currently exhibited by Earth-facing active regions will keep 10 MeV protons at a slight risk (15%) of reaching the 10 particle flux unit threshold through 05 Dec. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters became enhanced late this reporting period. Total field increased to 11-12 nT and the Bz component (North/South) deflected southward, reaching -9 nT. Solar wind speeds however continued a decreasing trend, ending the period under 400 km/s. Phi remained positive, but the current enhancement may be indicating an eminent solar sector boundary crossing to a negative orientation. .Forecast... Further disturbances in the solar wind environment are anticipated to arrive at Earth by late on 03 Dec. First, phi is expected to enter the negative solar sector followed by the arrival of enhanced magnetic field ahead of fast solar wind associated with a recurrent, equatorial, negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. This disturbance may be further enhanced by the glancing blow from the shock produced by a eastern limb coronal mass ejection that was associated with the aforementioned X1.9 flare on 01 Dec. While the disturbances from shock arrivals are typically brief, the enhancements of this combined phenomena is anticipated to continue through 04 Dec, with lingering effects possible on 05 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was quiet with a few isolated unsettled periods throughout the reporting period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on 03 Dec. Unsettled to active levels are likely to give way to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming periods by late 03 Dec due to the phenomena described in the solar wind section. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming is then likely to continue into 04 Dec. It should also be noted that a chance (25%) for isolated periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming will exist on 03 and 04 Dec, especially if the corotating interaction region ahead of the high speed stream arrives with embedded shock from the 01 Dec CME. Otherwise, G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions will most likely diminish to mostly active levels as 04 Dec draws to a close. 05 Dec will likely remain at unsettled to active levels as the system recovers. -WC Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 03 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 03-Dec 05 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 03-Dec 05 2025 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 00-03UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 4.33 03-06UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 4.33 06-09UT 2.00 5.67 (G2) 4.33 09-12UT 3.00 4.33 4.00 12-15UT 3.67 3.67 3.67 15-18UT 3.67 3.67 3.33 18-21UT 5.00 (G1) 4.00 3.00 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.33 3.33 Rationale: Unsettled to active levels are likely to give way to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming periods by late 03 Dec due to combined CME shock effects and the arrival of fast solar wind. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming is then likely to continue into 04 Dec. It should also be noted that a chance (25%) for isolated periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming will exist on 03 and 04 Dec, especially if the corotating interaction region ahead of the high speed stream arrives with embedded shock from the 01 Dec CME. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 03-Dec 05 2025 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: The flare potential currently exhibited by Earth-facing active regions will keep 10 MeV protons at a slight risk (15%) of reaching the 10 particle flux unit threshold through 05 Dec. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 03-Dec 05 2025 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 30% 30% 30% Rationale: Isolated to occasional R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected (75%) through 05 Dec, with a chance for a R3 (Strong) event (30%), given past flare history and the potential of current active regions on the disk. - WC Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2025 Dec 01 0212 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 November 2025 Solar activity was at low levels over 24-27 and 30 Nov with C-class flare activity observed. High levels of solar activity were observed on 28 Nov when Region 4294 (S15, L=293, class/area=Fkc/1100 on 30 Nov) produced an impulsive M5.9 flare (R2-Moderate) at 28/2222 UTC, with Type-II (828 km/s) and Tenflare (240 sfu) radio emissions, as the region rotated onto the disk from the SE limb. Solar activity reached high levels again on 29 Nov with six M-class flares (R1-Minor) observed from Region 4294. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the summary period. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was a normal to moderate levels on 24-27 Nov, with high levels observed on 28-30 Nov. Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 24 Nov, and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 25 Nov, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active levels were observed again on 26 Nov as negative polarity CH HSS influences subsided, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming were observed on 27 Nov, with periods of active conditions observed over 28-30 Nov, due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 December - 27 December 2025 Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels during the outlook period. M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with slight chance for X-flares (R3-Strong or greater), through 12 Dec due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4294. There exists a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 12 Dec, due primarily to the eruptive potential of Region 4294. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 01-06, 16-17, and 24-27 Dec. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Geomagnetic activity is likely to reach active levels on 03 and 06 Dec, and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 04-05 Dec, driven by influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. Additional G1 storm periods are likely on 13 Dec, with active levels likely on 14 Dec, again associated with negative polarity CH HSS effects. Active conditions are likely on 21 Dec, followed by G1 storm levels on 22 Dec, in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Further G1 storm periods are likely on 23-26 Dec, with active levels likely on 27 Dec, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 304 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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