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| Warnings and Alerts | |
| No Current Warnings Space Weather Scales | |
| Current Condition and Alerts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 07 1205 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Geophysical Alert Message Solar-terrestrial indices for 06 October follow. Solar flux 113 and estimated planetary A-index 11. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 07 October was 0.67. No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Space Weather Scales |
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| Forecast Discussion | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 07 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4549 (N10W06, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for multiple low level C-class flares. The largest was a C3.6 at 06/1506 UTC. Both regions 4545 (N17W12, Dao/beta) and 4549 continued to exhibit growth with Region 4549 exhibiting delta magnetic configurations in both the leading and trailing spots. Region 4547 (N15W65, Bxo/beta) was in decay. A CME first observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 06/1153 UTC appeared to be related to the M1.8 flare yesterday at 06/0805 UTC. Modelling of the narrow, northerly CME showed the bulk of the CME moving north of the ecliptic with a possibility of glancing effects arriving at the same time as the partial halo CME from 06 Oct. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a strong chance (45%) for further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 09 Oct, particularly from Region 4549 and possibly Region 4545. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 10,956 pfu at 06/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels through 09 Oct. There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold through 09 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to decline over the period from HSS activity. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 480 km/s to near 365 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz component was between +2/-3 nT. Phi angle was variable until 06/2110 UTC when it settled into a positive sector. .Forecast... The current waning trend is anticipated to continue over the course of 07 Oct with ambient-like conditions prevailing on 08 Oct. A disturbed and enhanced environment is likely to arrive by early on 09 Oct due to CME influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at largely quiet levels with possible isolated unsettled periods through 08 Oct. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Oct with the arrival of the aforementioned 06 Oct CME events. Space Weather Scales |
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| Three Day Forecast | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 07 1230 UTC
Prepared
by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 07-Oct 09 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 07-Oct 09 2026 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09 00-03UT 1.00 1.33 1.67 03-06UT 1.33 1.67 5.00 (G1) 06-09UT 1.00 1.33 4.33 09-12UT 0.67 1.67 5.67 (G2) 12-15UT 2.00 1.67 4.00 15-18UT 2.67 1.33 3.00 18-21UT 2.67 1.33 3.00 21-00UT 3.00 1.33 4.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 06 Oct. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 07-Oct 09 2026 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold through 09 Oct. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 07-Oct 09 2026 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a strong chance (45%) for further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 09 Oct, particularly from Region 4549 and possibly Region 4545. Space Weather Scales |
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| Weekly Highlights and Forecasts | |
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Issued: 2026 Oct 05 0139 UTC
Prepared
by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 September - 04 October 2026 Solar activity was at very low to low levels throughout the summary period. Region 4535 (N11, L=351, class/area Dao/060 on 30 Sep) produced the strongest flare of the period; an impulsive C8.6/1f event at 30/0246 UTC. This event also produced a 523 km/s Type II and a Type IV Sweep. All other regions remained simple and absent of any significant activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 28-30 Sep and 01 Oct with a peak of 5,620 pfu observed at 29/1620 UTC. Moderate levels were observed on 02-04 Oct. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 28-30 Sep and 01-03 Oct with some isolated unsettled periods observed early on 03 Oct. On 04 Oct, solar wind parameters became enhanced due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 22 nT and Bz observed several southward deflections, the maximum being -20 nT early on 04 Oct. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from about 300 km/s to a peak of 644 km/s later on 04 Oct. The phi angle was predominately positive. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 October - 31 October 2026 Solar activity is likely to continue at very low to low levels throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 06-11 Oct, 14-17 Oct, and 23-28 Oct due to anticipated incluence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 22 and 31 Oct. Active levels are likely on 06, 21, and 23 Oct. Unsettled levels are likely on 07, 11-14, and 24 Oct. All increases in geomagnetic activity are associated with anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent, coronal hole HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. Space Weather Scales |
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| About AIA Images | |
| The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is designed to provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona, taking images that span at least 1.3 solar diameters in multiple wavelengths nearly simultaneously, at a resolution of ~ 1 arcsec and at a cadence of 10 s or better. The primary goal of the AIA Science Investigation is to use these data, together with data from other SDO instruments and from other observatories, to significantly improve our understanding of the physics behind the activity displayed by the Sun's atmosphere, which drives space weather in the heliosphere and in planetary environments. The AIA will produce data required for quantitative studies of the evolving coronal magnetic field, and the plasma that it holds, both in quiescent phases and during flares and eruptions; the AIA science investigation aims to utilize these data in a comprehensive research program to provide new understanding of the observed processes Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Image AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Image AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 171 PFSS Model | |
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| Daily Video AIA 193 | |
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| Daily Video AIA 304 | |
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| About the HMI Images | |
| (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) HMI is an instrument designed to study oscillations and the magnetic field at the solar surface, or photosphere. HMI is one of three instruments on the Solar Dynamics Observatory; together, the suite of instruments observes the Sun nearly continuously and takes a terabyte of data a day. HMI observes the full solar disk at 6173 Å with a resolution of 1 arcsecond. HMI is a successor to the Michelson Doppler Imager on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. This is very much how the Sun looks like in the visible range of the spectrum (for example, looking at it using special 'eclipse' glasses: Remember, do not ever look directly at the Sun!). The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Daily Image HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Image HMI Magnetogram | |
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| Daily Video HMI Continuum | |
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| Daily Video HMI Magnetogram | |
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| About LASCO Images | |
| LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C2 images show the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. Many bright stars can be seen behind the Sun. Left Click Image for screen size, Right Click Image and open in new tab for full size. | |
| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 | |
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| Combined C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Log Polar View C2 C3 and AIA 304 Video | |
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| Space Weather Videos | |
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| Space Weather Information | |
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Demystifying Space Weather An article by Scientific Frontline Informative information and glossary about “Space Weather” Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society. |
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