Using 100-year-old data to help predict future solar cycle activity

To reconstruct the Sun’s polar magnetic behavior over more than 100 years, an SwRI scientist first corrected anomalies in historical data from Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (KoSO) to sync with direct modern measurements of the Sun’s poles. Comparing observations from KoSO in Calcium-K light with magnetic field measurements from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory’s Michelson Doppler Imager (left) highlights the association of bright regions in Ca K with magnetic activity in the Sun. The right image shows dark blue and green (north polarity) yellow and orange regions (south polarity) regions, indicating where Ca K light and magnetic data are highly correlated.
Image Credit: KoSO/IIA, SOHO/NASA/ESA

Scientific Frontline: "At a Glance" Summary

• Main Discovery: Reconstruction of the Sun's polar magnetic behavior spanning over a century to enhance the prediction of future solar cycle activity.
• Methodology: The research team analyzed historical Calcium K (Ca II K) observations from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (KoSO), dating back to 1904. An automated algorithm processed approximately 50,000 images to identify magnetic field proxies in the Sun's chromosphere, while correcting for data anomalies such as time zone slips and rotation errors.
• Key Data: The study utilized over 100 years of archival data, significantly extending the record beyond direct polar field measurements which only began in the 1970s. Current predictive capabilities are limited to approximately five years, whereas this method aims to facilitate multi-decadal forecasting.
• Significance: Understanding the polar magnetic field is critical for forecasting solar processes, including sunspots, solar flares, and magnetic storms. Improved predictions are essential for safeguarding satellites, power grids, and other Earth-based technologies from adverse space weather events.
• Future Application: The findings will assist NASA and other space agencies in planning long-term missions decades in advance by providing a clearer understanding of expected solar conditions.
• Branch of Science: Heliophysics / Solar Physics
• Additional Detail: Researchers are proposing a future solar polar mission to directly observe these magnetic mechanisms from an ecliptic viewpoint to further validate and refine these models.

The path to solar weather forecasts

Three heads are better than one. Diagram to show the different satellites that made up the ad-hoc sensor network in this study. Their combined data helped paint a picture of how a CME in 2022 changed as it passed by the Earth on its way out of the solar system.
Illustration Credit: ©2025 Kinoshita et al.
(CC BY-ND 4.0)

Scientific Frontline: "At a Glance" Summary

• Core Discovery: Researchers successfully tracked the spatiotemporal evolution of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) by repurposing non-scientific spacecraft instruments to monitor fluctuations in cosmic rays.
• Methodology: The study utilized a multi-point observation strategy, synchronizing data from three distinct spacecraft—the ESA Solar Orbiter, the ESA/JAXA BepiColombo, and NASA’s Near Earth Spacecraft—to create a 3D-like reconstruction of the solar eruption's movement.
• Detection Mechanism: The team measured "Forbush decreases," which are temporary drops in background cosmic-ray intensity caused when the strong magnetic fields of a passing ICME deflect high-energy charged particles.
• Key Innovation: A "system-monitoring" radiation monitor on BepiColombo, originally intended only for spacecraft health checks, was calibrated and transformed into a high-precision scientific sensor to detect these particle decreases.
• Data Integration: By correlating cosmic-ray data with magnetic-field and solar-wind measurements from March 2022, the researchers linked specific changes in the particle signals to the physical structural changes of the eruption as it moved away from the sun.
• Primary Implication: This approach establishes a framework for continuous solar weather forecasting by utilizing existing and future spacecraft as an ad-hoc sensor network, providing crucial data to protect Earth's power grids and satellite infrastructure.

Naturally occurring “space weather station” elucidates new way to study habitability of planets orbiting M dwarf stars

Artist's renditions of the space weather around M dwarf TIC 141146667. The torus of ionized gas is sculpted by the star's magnetic field and rotation, with two pinched, dense clumps present on opposing sides of the star.
Illustrations Credit: Navid Marvi, courtesy Carnegie Science.

How does a star affect the makeup of its planets? And what does this mean for the habitability of distant worlds? Carnegie’s Luke Bouma is exploring a new way to probe this critical question—using naturally occurring space weather stations that orbit at least 10 percent of M dwarf stars during their early lives. He is presenting his work at the American Astronomical Society meeting this week. 

We know that most M dwarf stars—which are smaller, cooler, and dimmer than our own Sun—host at least one Earth-sized rocky planet. Most of them are inhospitable—too hot for liquid water or atmospheres, or hit with frequent stellar flares and intense radiation. But they could still prove to be interesting laboratories for understanding the many ways that stars shape the surroundings in which their planets exist.

“Stars influence their planets. That’s obvious. They do so both through light, which we’re great at observing, and through particles—or space weather—like solar winds and magnetic storms, which are more challenging to study at great distances,” Bouma explained. “And that’s very frustrating, because we know in our own Solar System that particles can sometimes be more important for what happens to planets.” 

But astronomers can’t set up a space weather station around a distant star. 

Space Weather: In-Depth Description

Image Credit: Scientific Frontline / stock image

Space Weather refers to the dynamic, variable conditions within the Solar System—specifically the space environment surrounding the Earth—driven primarily by solar activity. It encompasses the physical processes occurring on the Sun, in the solar wind, and within Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems, as well as endanger human health and life.

International research collaboration finds solar gamma rays could unlock the mystery of the Sun’s hidden magnetic fields

AIA Image 193 from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)
Compiled from 97 still images.
Video Credit: Scientific Frontline

New research conducted by an international team of physicists has found that high-energy gamma rays might offer the key to unlocking the mysteries of the Sun’s magnetic fields.

The study, led by the Chinese University of Hong Kong, the University of Exeter and the University of Amsterdam, concludes that teraelectronvolt (TeV) gamma rays, observable from specialist facilities on Earth, could be the result of this magnetic field interacting with cosmic rays.

By studying these TeV rays, say the researchers, it could be possible to identify where the fields are located, with their initial findings suggesting they are just beneath the solar surface.

“Magnetic activity of the Sun is the driver behind the space weather and as a consequence the effects space weather has on our society,” says Professor Andrew Hillier, one of the authors of the paper at Exeter. “However, it is not possible to see beneath the solar surface to investigate the Sun’s magnetic field before they manifest on that surface. Our study provides a new method by using cosmic rays to peer beneath the solar surface.

Coronal mass ejections at the dawn of the solar system

Artist's depiction of a coronal mass ejection from EK Draconis. The hotter and faster ejection is shown in blue, while the cooler and slower ejection is shown in red.
Image Credit: National Astronomical Observatory of Japan

Down here on Earth we don't usually notice, but the Sun is frequently ejecting huge masses of plasma into space. These are called coronal mass ejections (CMEs). They often occur together with sudden brightenings called flares, and sometimes extend far enough to disturb Earth's magnetosphere, generating space weather phenomena including auroras or geomagnetic storms, and even damaging power grids on occasion.

Scientists believe that when the Sun and the Earth were young, the Sun was so active that these CMEs may have even affected the emergence and evolution of life on the Earth. In fact, previous studies have revealed that young Sun-like stars, proxies of our Sun in its youth, frequently produce powerful flares that far exceed the largest solar flares in modern history.

We need a solar sail probe to detect space tornadoes earlier, more accurately

An artist’s rendering of the spacecraft in the SWIFT constellation stationed in a triangular pyramid formation between the sun and Earth. A solar sail allows the spacecraft at the pyramid’s tip to hold station beyond L1 without conventional fuel.
Image Credit: Steve Alvey, University of Michigan.

Spirals of solar wind can spin off larger solar eruptions and disrupt Earth’s magnetic field, yet they are too difficult to detect with our current single-location warning system, according to a new study from the University of Michigan.

But a constellation of spacecraft, including one that sails on sunlight, could help find the tornado-like features in time to protect equipment on Earth and in orbit.

The study results come from computer simulations of a massive cloud of plasma erupting from the sun and moving through the solar system. Because the simulation covers features that span distances three times Earth’s diameter down to thousands of miles, the researchers could determine how smaller, tornado-like spirals of plasma and magnetic field—called flux ropes—become concerning features in their own right.

NASA's IMAP Mission Successfully Launches to Study Our Solar System's Protective Bubble

Photo Credit: NASA / Kim Shiflett

A new era of space exploration began this morning with the successful launch of NASA's Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission. The spacecraft, launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Kennedy Space Center, is on a journey to help us better understand the protective bubble surrounding our solar system, known as the heliosphere, and to improve our ability to predict space weather.

The IMAP mission is a collaborative effort led by Princeton University professor David J. McComas, with the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) having built the spacecraft and now managing the mission operations. The spacecraft is equipped with a suite of 10 advanced instruments that will work together to sample, analyze, and map the particles streaming toward Earth from the edges of our solar system and beyond. This will provide invaluable new insights into the solar wind – the constant stream of particles from the sun – and the interstellar medium.

Demystifying Space Weather

SDO 304Å

Space weather has become increasingly important in our modern world due to our growing reliance on technology. It can impact various aspects of our daily lives, from communication and navigation systems to power grids and even astronaut safety. In this deep dive, we'll explore the intricacies of space weather, its causes, its effects, and why understanding it is crucial in our technology-dependent society.

Space weather is a dynamic and ever-changing phenomenon that has significant implications for our technology-dependent world. From disrupting communication and navigation systems to causing power outages and posing radiation hazards to astronauts, space weather events can have far-reaching consequences. While predicting space weather accurately remains a challenge, ongoing research and improved monitoring capabilities are crucial for mitigating potential risks. By understanding the causes and effects of space weather, we can better prepare for these events and protect our critical infrastructure and space-based assets. As we continue to explore and utilize space, space weather awareness and preparedness will become increasingly important for ensuring the safety and sustainability of our technological advancements and space exploration endeavors.

Miyake Events: Unraveling the Mysteries of Cosmic Radiation Surges

Image Credit: Scientific Frontline

What if a solar storm a thousand times stronger than any recorded hit Earth today? Imagine a surge of energy from the cosmos so powerful that it leaves its mark not only on our atmosphere but also etched into the very rings of ancient trees. This is the captivating reality of a Miyake event, a cosmic radiation burst that has intrigued scientists since its discovery in 2012. Named after Japanese physicist Fusa Miyake, these events offer a unique window into the dynamic interplay between our planet and the universe, while simultaneously raising concerns about the potential impact such events could have on our technologically reliant world.

What are Miyake Events?

Miyake events are distinguished by a dramatic increase in the production of cosmogenic isotopes, particularly carbon-14, within Earth's atmosphere. This surge in carbon-14 is detectable in tree rings, ice cores, and other natural records like sediment layers and cave formations, providing a historical record of these events1. The leading hypothesis suggests that extreme solar events, such as powerful solar flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs), are the primary trigger for these events. These solar eruptions unleash massive quantities of high-energy particles that interact with Earth's atmosphere, leading to the increased production of carbon-14 and other cosmogenic isotopes like beryllium-10 and chlorine-362. Interestingly, Miyake events are potentially linked to superflares observed on distant stars similar to our Sun, suggesting a broader astronomical context for these powerful phenomena.

New technology improves space weather monitoring

The Compact Space Plasma Analyzer will improve space weather prediction.
Photo Credit: Courtesy of Los Alamos National Laboratory

Peaceful though it may seem from Earth, space is beset by “weather” that can prove perilous for the sensitive — and expensive — technology aboard the spacecraft and satellites increasingly populating the realms outside our atmosphere. To meet that challenge, Los Alamos National Laboratory researchers have developed the Compact Space Plasma Analyzer, a small and cost-efficient space sensor capable of measuring space weather, which will help protect technology in orbit.

“Space weather, which is made up of charged particles from the sun, presents a range of challenges concerning the design, development and operation of satellites and spacecraft,” said Carlos Maldonado, principal investigator of the Compact Space Plasma Analyzer and a researcher in the Lab’s Space Science and Applications group. “Of particular interest to the space community are the interactions between space systems operating in plasma environments, which can lead to potentially hazardous levels of differential charging and cause interference for GPS and communication signals.”

A long-standing goal in the space weather community is to advance the capability to predict space weather events days in advance, in the same way that terrestrial weather forecasting enables one to anticipate a week of sunshine or snow.

Study Offers Improved Look at Earth’s Ionosphere

Radio signal plasma wave from a parallel magnetic field. This animation shows the Faraday rotation phenomena in black. The grid at the end of the propagation path is the antenna, and the black line shows how the plane of polarization of the radio signal projects onto it.
Image Credit: E. Jensen/PSI.

New measuring techniques will enable improved measurements of the Earth’s ionosphere, a key to studying and reducing the impact of space weather.

Radio signals have been used to study the density of plasma since the 1920s. Transmitting radio sources include ground-based ionosondes (special radar for the examination of the ionosphere), astronomical phenomena such as pulsars and more recently spacecraft signals used for transmitting data. For example, Global Positioning Satellites (GPS) radio signals are used to measure the density of Earth’s ionosphere. However, the response of the radio signal to the ionospheric plasma is more complicated than simply varying as a function of density. The Earth’s magnetic field affects its electromagnetic wave fluctuations as well. For example, Faraday rotation is a well-known phenomenon, as shown in the image above. But, as a technique for measuring magnetic field, Faraday rotation is limited to just the portion that is oriented in the correct direction. Our discovery complements Faraday rotation enabling a complete measurement of magnetic field strength.

The importance of the Earth's atmosphere in creating the large storms that affect satellite communications

Illustration Credit: ERG Science Team

A study from an international team led by researchers from Nagoya University in Japan and the University of New Hampshire in the United States has revealed the importance of the Earth’s upper atmosphere in determining how large geomagnetic storms develop. Their findings reveal the previously underestimated importance of the Earth’s atmosphere. Understanding the factors that cause geomagnetic storms is important because they can have a direct impact on the Earth’s magnetic field such as causing unwanted currents in the power grid and disrupting radio signals and GPS. This research may help predict the storms that will have the greatest consequences. 

Scientists have long known that geomagnetic storms are associated with the activities of the Sun. Hot charged particles make up the Sun's outer layer, the one visible to us. These particles flow out of the Sun creating the ‘solar wind’, and interact with objects in space, such as the Earth. When the particles reach the magnetic field surrounding our planet, known as the magnetosphere, they interact with it. The interactions between the charged particles and magnetic fields lead to space weather, the conditions in space that can affect the Earth and technological systems such as satellites.  

New patterns in Sun’s layers could help scientists solve solar mystery

In this image, the fine-structure of the quiet Sun is observed at its surface or photosphere.
Image Credit: NSF/AURA/NSO

Astronomers are one step closer to understanding one of the most enduring solar mysteries, having captured unprecedented data from the Sun’s magnetic field.

New research from an international team may explain one of the biggest conundrums in astrophysics – why the outermost layer of the Sun’s atmosphere is hotter than the surface

Groundbreaking data collected from the world's most powerful solar telescopes shows a snake-like pattern in the Sun’s magnetic fields that could contribute to the heating of the Sun’s outermost atmosphere

The project, which includes scientists across a wide range of institutions on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, has opened new avenues in solar physics

Astronomers are one step closer to understanding one of the most enduring solar mysteries, having captured unprecedented data from the Sun’s magnetic field.

Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in tree rings

Artist illustration of events on the sun changing the conditions in Near-Earth space. Suggested imagery from NASA, as recommended by our researchers.
Illustration Credit: NASA

An international team of scientists have discovered a huge spike in radiocarbon levels 14,300 years ago by analyzing ancient tree-rings found in the French Alps.

The radiocarbon spike was caused by a massive solar storm, the biggest ever identified.  A similar solar storm today would be catastrophic for modern technological society – potentially wiping out telecommunications and satellite systems, causing massive electricity grid blackouts, and costing us billions of pounds.  

The academics are warning of the importance of understanding such storms to protect our global communications and energy infrastructure for the future. 

Space weather disrupts nocturnal bird migration

A Baltimore oriole in flight. Orioles are nocturnal migratory birds.
Photo Credit: Andrew Dreelin

It’s well-known that birds and other animals rely on Earth’s magnetic field for long-distance navigation during seasonal migrations.

But how do periodic disruptions of the planet’s magnetic field, caused by solar flares and other energetic outbursts, affect the reliability of those biological navigation systems?

University of Michigan researchers and their colleagues used massive, long-term datasets from networks of U.S. Doppler weather radar stations and ground-based magnetometers—devices that measure the intensity of local magnetic fields—to test for a possible link between geomagnetic disturbances and disruptions to nocturnal bird migration.

They found a 9%-17% reduction in the number of migrating birds, in both spring and fall, during severe space weather events. And the birds that chose to migrate during such events seemed to experience more difficulty navigating, especially under overcast conditions in autumn.

The new findings, published online Oct. 9 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, provide correlational evidence for previously unknown relationships between nocturnal bird migration dynamics and geomagnetic disturbances, according to the researchers.

Parker Solar Probe flies into the fast solar wind and finds its source

Artist’s concept of the Parker Solar Probe spacecraft approaching the sun. Launched in 2018, the probe is increasing our ability to forecast major space-weather events that impact life on Earth.
Illustration Credit: NASA

NASA’s Parker Solar Probe has flown close enough to the sun to detect the fine structure of the solar wind close to where it is generated at the sun’s surface, revealing details that are lost as the wind exits the corona as a uniform blast of charged particles.

It’s like seeing jets of water emanating from a showerhead through the blast of water hitting you in the face.

In a paper to be published in the journal Nature, a team of scientists led by Stuart D. Bale, a professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and James Drake of the University of Maryland-College Park, report that the Parker Solar Probe has detected streams of high-energy particles that match the supergranulation flows within coronal holes, which suggests that these are the regions where the so-called “fast” solar wind originates.

Coronal holes are areas where magnetic field lines emerge from the surface without looping back inward, thus forming open field lines that expand outward and fill most of the space around the sun. These holes are usually at the poles during the sun’s quiet periods, so the fast solar wind they generate doesn’t hit Earth. But when the sun becomes active every 11 years as its magnetic field flips, these holes appear all over the surface, generating bursts of solar wind aimed directly at Earth.

Latest research provides SwRI scientists close-up views of energetic particle jets ejected from the sun

Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) scientists observed the first close-up views of the source of jets of energetic particles expelled from the Sun. The high-resolution images of the solar event were provided by ESA and NASA Solar Orbiter, a Sun-observing satellite launched in 2020.
Image Credit: Courtesy of SwRI

Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) scientists observed the first close-ups of a source of energetic particles expelled from the Sun, viewing them from just half an astronomical unit (AU), or about 46.5 million miles. The high-resolution images of the solar event were provided by ESA’s Solar Orbiter, a Sun-observing satellite launched in 2020.

“In 2022, the Solar Orbiter detected six recurrent energetic ion injections. Particles emanated along the jets, a signature of magnetic reconnection involving field lines open to interplanetary space,” said SwRI’s Dr. Radoslav Bucik, the lead author of a new study published this month in Astronomy & Astrophysics Letters. “The Solar Orbiter frequently detects this type of activity, but this period showed very unusual elemental compositions.”

SwRI selected for phase a study to develop next-generation NOAA coronagraph

SwRI used internal funding to develop SwSCOR three-stage lens system mounted behind a single-pylon external occulter to minimize distortion across the field of view. A polarizer wheel is placed in front of the first lens. The current Phase A study will study options for the external occulter.
Illustration Credit: Courtesy of SwRI

NASA has selected Southwest Research Institute for a Phase A study to develop SwRI’s Space Weather Solar Coronagraph (SwSCOR) on behalf of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA’s Space Weather Next Program is charged with providing critical data for its space weather prediction center. SwRI is one of five organizations developing a definition-phase study to produce the next-generation NOAA L1 Series COR instrument to detect and characterize Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs).

CMEs are huge bursts of coronal plasma threaded with intense magnetic fields ejected from the Sun over the course of several hours. CMEs arriving at Earth can generate geomagnetic storms, which can cause anomalies in and disruptions to modern conveniences such as electronic grids and GPS systems. Coronagraphs are instruments that block out light emitted by the Sun’s surface so that its outer atmosphere, or corona, can be observed.

A.I. used to predict space weather like Coronal Mass Ejections

 Dr Andy Smith of Northumbria University
Photo Credit: Northumbria University/Simon Veit-Wilson.

A physicist from Northumbria University has received over £500,000 to create AI that will safeguard the Earth from destructive space storms.

Coronal Mass Ejections, which are solar eruptions from the Sun, can send plasma hurtling towards Earth at high speeds. These space storms can cause severe disruptions to power grids and communication systems.

With our increasing reliance on technology, solar storms pose a serious threat to our everyday lives, leading to severe space weather being added to the UK National Risk Assessment for the first time in 2011.

Researcher and his team analyzed huge amounts of data from satellites and space missions over the last 20 years to gain a better understanding of the conditions under which storms are likely to occur.