The Westdahl Peak volcano in Alaska last erupted in 1992, and continued expansion hints at another eruption soon. Experts previously forecasted the next blast to occur by 2010, but the volcano – located under about 1 kilometer of glacial ice – has yet to erupt again. Using the Westdahl Peak volcano as inspiration, a new volcanic modeling study examined how glaciers affect the stability and short-term eruption cycles of high-latitude volcanic systems – some of which exist along major air transportation routes.
The study, led by University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign undergraduate researcher Lilian Lucas, with graduate student Jack Albright, former graduate student Yan Zhan and geology professor Patricia Gregg, used finite element numerical modeling to study the stability of the rock that surrounds volcanic systems – but with a new twist. The team accounted for the additional pressure from glacial ice volcanoes when forecasting the timing of eruptions.
“Volcanic forecasting involves a lot of variables, including the depth and size of a volcano’s magma chamber, the rate at which magma fills that chamber and the strength of the rocks that contain the chamber, to name a few,” Lucas said. “Accounting for overlying pressure from polar ice caps is another critical, yet poorly understood, variable.”