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Satellite image of Borneo in 2006 covered by smoke from fires (marked by red dots). Image Credit: Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team / NASA |
A machine learning model can evaluate the effectiveness of different management strategies
Wildfires are a growing threat in a world shaped by climate change. Now, researchers at Aalto University have developed a neural network model that can accurately predict the occurrence of fires in peatlands. They used the new model to assess the effect of different strategies for managing fire risk and identified a suite of interventions that would reduce fire incidence by 50-76%.
The study focused on the Central Kalimantan province of Borneo in Indonesia, which has the highest density of peatland fires in Southeast Asia. Drainage to support agriculture or residential expansion has made peatlands increasingly vulnerable to recurring fires. In addition to threatening lives and livelihoods, peatland fires release significant amounts of carbon dioxide. However, prevention strategies have faced difficulties because of the lack of clear, quantified links between proposed interventions and fire risk.
The new model uses measurements taken before each fire season in 2002-2019 to predict the distribution of peatland fires. While the findings can be broadly applied to peatlands elsewhere, a new analysis would have to be done for other contexts. ‘Our methodology could be used for other contexts, but this specific model would have to be re-trained on the new data,’ says Alexander Horton, the postdoctoral researcher who carried out study.