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From left: Dr Matthew Adams, Sarah Vollert, Professor Drovandi Photo Credit: Courtesy of Queensland University of Technology |
A new way to analyze the effects of conservation actions on complex ecosystems has cut the modelling time from 108 days to six hours, QUT statisticians have found:
- Some conservation efforts backfire, eg eradicating feral cats could lead to rabbit explosion
- Modeling predicts the cascading effects through species in a complex ecosystem, but is computationally slow
- New method cuts prediction time from 3.5 months to six hours
PhD researcher Sarah Vollert, from the School of Mathematical Sciences and the QUT Centre for Data Sciences, said it was impossible to predict exactly how conservation actions would affect each species.
“Though well-intentioned, conservation actions have the potential to backfire,” Ms. Vollert said.
“For example, if decision-makers decide to eradicate feral cats, it could lead to explosive populations of their prey species, like rabbits.
“Uncontrolled rabbit populations could then have devastating effects on the vegetation, destroying the habitat native species need to survive.