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| Photo Credit: Laura Paredis |
The Arctic’s “Last Ice Area” (LIA) — a vital habitat for ice-dependent species — might disappear within a decade after the central Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free in summer, which is expected to occur sometime around mid-century, a new study by McGill University researchers using a high-resolution model has found.
Earlier, lower-resolution models had suggested the LIA might last for several more decades after that point. The stability of this region is crucial for preserving the Arctic ecology, as it provides a suitable habitat for ice-dependent and ice-obligate species, including polar bears, belugas, bowhead whales, walruses, ringed seals, bearded seals and ivory gulls.
“These findings underscore the urgency of reducing warming to ensure stable projections for the LIA and for critical Arctic habitats,” said Madeleine Fol, lead author of the paper, which was her Master of Science thesis.
In 2019, the Canadian government designated a portion of the LIA, located north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago as the Tuvaijuittuq Marine Protected Area. In August 2024, interim protection for this area was extended for up to five years “while the Government of Canada works with partners to consider long-term protection.” Inuit communities are deeply invested in protecting the LIA’s unique ecosystem. Environmental organizations, including the World Wildlife Fund, have also long campaigned for the protection of the entire LIA to support the resilience of the Arctic ecosystem.
"Our findings were based on high-resolution models, which consider sea ice transport through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,” said Bruno Tremblay, Professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic studies, who co-led the study. “These suggest the LIA may vanish much sooner than previously thought.”
These new simulations reveal that a significant fraction of the remaining thick ice of the LIA may flow southward through the archipelago, entering warmer waters and melting rapidly, leading to the potential flushing of the sea ice of the LIA over a decade. This quick flushing of the LIA through islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is only possible when reaching continuous ice-free conditions over the central Arctic Ocean, the researchers said. Conserving the thick ice of the LIA is essential to its protection, as it hinders sea ice transport through the archipelago, they added.
Published in journal: Nature Communications: Earth and Environment
Title: Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model
Authors: Madeleine Fol, Bruno Tremblay, Stephanie Pfirman, Robert Newton, Stephen Howell, and Jean-François Lemieux
Source/Credit: McGill University
Reference Number: en012825_01
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