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Stream in Hilo. Photo Credit: Pascal Debrunner |
As with many natural phenomena, scientists look to the climate of the past to understand what may lie ahead as Earth warms. By assessing so-called ‘flavors’ of El Niño events in historical records and model simulations, researchers have a clearer picture of El Niño patterns over the past 12,000 years and are able to more accurately project future changes and impacts of this powerful force. The study, by scientists at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa and University of Colorado Boulder, was published in Nature Communications.
The new set of climate model simulations developed and analyzed by Christina Karamperidou, lead author of the study and associate professor at UH Mānoa, and co-author Pedro DiNezio, associate professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, are the first to allow the study of changes in the frequency of El Niño flavors during the past 12,000 years.
This work offers new knowledge on how El Niño may respond to climate change and thus can help reduce these uncertainties in global climate models and offer more accurate predictions of El Niño impacts.