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| Satellite image of flooding in Pakistan in August 2022. Image Credit: Moetasim Ashfaq |
A new study by researchers at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory looks at some of the influences that could be driving the increasingly severe weather over Pakistan.
Published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, the study analyzed over 40 years of data and found that natural climate variability, which includes factors such as sea surface temperature and jet stream anomalies, accounts for over 70% of observed monsoon variability and extremes in Pakistan during the 21st century — with climate change potentially adding to their severity.
Pakistan is no stranger to floods and droughts. However, these events have become more frequent and severe in recent decades — unprecedented rainfall in 2010 and 2022 caused catastrophic floods and landslides, and a drought at the beginning of the 21st century caused widespread famine.
Climate scientists must quantify the influence of natural climate variability on these extreme weather events to understand how and the extent to which climate change has contributed to this increased volatility.
The study, called “The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan,” focused on precipitation variability in West South Asia, a region that includes Pakistan and parts of India. The South Asian climate is commonly studied due to the area’s high population and strong monsoon season, which can bring up to 70% of the annual rainfall in a few months.



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