Climate experts from Newcastle University, the Met Office and the University of Bristol used European-wide km-scale simulations to model future changes to hail with global warming. Published in the journal Nature Communications, the findings show that, under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), severe hail is likely to become less common, except potentially for very large hail.
Severe hail has a diameter of 2 cm, while a diameter of 5 cm or more is considered very large. Bigger hailstones cause more damage than smaller ones, and even a small increase in their size could outweigh any benefits from having fewer hailstorms overall.
The researchers attribute this decrease to more than one factor. Hail forms higher in the atmosphere as it warms, where storm updrafts could be weaker, and this gives hail more time to melt before reaching the ground. Another factor is the weakening large scale circulation, affecting the vertical profile of winds and leading to environments not beneficial for thunderstorm organization.
Importantly, the authors found that future warm seasons feature a warmer thunderstorm type similar to hail-producing storms found in the tropics, where the largest hailstones can still reach the surface. The findings suggest that, in the future, these storms will become most frequent over southern Europe, leading to regional increases in severe hail frequency.

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