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| Interpreted 3D seismic characteristics. The seal layer, interpreted by looking at data on the supercritical fluid’s movement, appears as a distinct region. It’s disrupted where it meets a fault which makes it appear porous to the fluid, allowing it to migrate upwards, causing seismic vibrations. Image Credit: ©2025 Tsuji et al. (CC BY 4.0) |
Researchers including those from the University of Tokyo build on past studies and introduce new methods to explore the nature and role of subsurface fluids including water in the instances and behaviors of earthquakes and volcanoes. Their study suggests that water, even heavy rainfall, can play a role in or even trigger seismic events. This could potentially lead to better early warning systems. The study improves models of seismic activity and can even help identify optimal sites for drilling to tap sources of supercritical geothermal energy.
As far as is currently known, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions cannot be predicted, certainly not on the timescales with which we expect from typical weather reports. But as physical theories improve, so does the accuracy of statistical models which could be useful for planning, and potentially also early warning systems, which can save lives when disaster does strike. Another benefit of improving such models is that they could help locate areas suitable for tapping into geothermal energy. So, it’s the improvement of theories, based on good observations, that geologists and other researchers strive for. And a recent development in this field has added another factor into the mix which may be more significant than was previously thought.
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