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A mangrove in Laguna del Cacahuate, Tabasco, Mexico.
Photo Credit: Octavio Aburto
Scientific Frontline: "At a Glance" Summary
- Main Discovery: Integrating ocean-related damages into the social cost of carbon calculation nearly doubles the estimated global economic harm caused by carbon dioxide emissions.
- Methodology: Researchers developed a framework accounting for market use values (fisheries, trade), non-market values (health, recreation), and non-use values (biodiversity existence), then integrated these into an economic model calibrated to various greenhouse gas emission trajectories.
- Key Data: The social cost of carbon increases from $51 to $97.2 per ton—a 91% rise—with market damages alone projected to reach $1.66 trillion globally per year by 2100.
- Significance: This "blue" social cost of carbon assigns monetary values to previously overlooked ocean variables like coral reef degradation and coastal infrastructure damage, preventing these factors from being invisible in standard economic accounting.
- Future Application: Policymakers and private sector leaders can utilize this metric to refine cost-benefit analyses for environmental regulations, risk management strategies, and corporate emission damage assessments.
- Branch of Science: Environmental Economics and Oceanography
- Additional Detail: The study highlights a highly unequal distribution of economic impact, with islands and small economies facing disproportionate harm due to their reliance on seafood and vulnerability to sea-level rise.

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