Once considered a fringe idea, the prospect of offsetting global warming by releasing massive quantities of sunlight-reflecting particles into Earth’s atmosphere is now a matter of serious scientific consideration. Hundreds of studies have modeled how this form of solar geoengineering, known as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), might work. There is a real possibility that nations or even individuals seeking a stopgap solution to climate change may try SAI—but the proponents dramatically underestimate just how difficult and complicated it will be, say researchers from Columbia University.
“Even when simulations of SAI in climate models are sophisticated, they’re necessarily going to be idealized. Researchers model the perfect particles that are the perfect size. And in the simulation, they put exactly how much of them they want, where they want them. But when you start to consider where we actually are, compared to that idealized situation, it reveals a lot of the uncertainty in those predictions,” says V. Faye McNeill, an atmospheric chemist and aerosol scientist at Columbia’s Climate School and Columbia Engineering.