Climate report: Earth on dangerous path but rapid action can avert the worst outcomes

Palisades Fire. Photo taken Jan. 8, 2025.
Photo Credit: Cal Fire.

2024 was the hottest year on record and likely the hottest in at least 125,000 years, according to an annual report issued by an international coalition led by Oregon State University scientists.

“Without effective strategies, we will rapidly encounter escalating risks that threaten to overwhelm systems of peace, governance, and public and ecosystem health,” said co-lead author William Ripple. “In short, we’ll be on the fast track to climate-driven chaos, a dangerous trajectory for humanity.”

Despite the sixth annual report’s ominous findings – 22 of the planet’s 34 vital signs are at record levels – Ripple stresses that “it’s not too late to limit the damage even if we miss the temperature mitigation goal set by the 2015 Paris Agreement,” an international treaty that set targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

But with many vital signs, including greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, ocean acidity and ice mass, continuing to trend sharply in the wrong direction, the authors note that time is definitely of the essence.

The flooded Guadalupe River near Kerrville, Texas, is shown in this July 5, 2025
Photo Credit: United States Coast Guard.

“What’s urgently needed are effective climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, including ones that embed climate resilience into national defense and foreign policy frameworks,” said Ripple, distinguished professor in the OSU College of Forestry. “We also need grassroots movements advocating for a socially just phaseout of fossil fuels and limits on the fossil fuels industry’s financial and political influence.”

Published today in BioScience, “The 2025 state of the climate report: A planet on the brink” cites global data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Link is external, a United Nations organization for assessing the science related to climate change, in proposing “high-impact” strategies, including:

Energy: Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind have the potential to supply up to 70% of global electricity by 2050, the report notes. A rapid phaseout of fossil fuels would yield one of the largest contributions to climate mitigation.

Ecosystems: Protecting and restoring ecosystems such as forests, wetlands, mangroves, and peatlands could remove or avoid around 10 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year by 2050, which is equivalent to roughly 25% of current annual emissions, while also supporting biodiversity and water security.

Food systems: Reducing food loss and waste, which currently accounts for roughly 8-10% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and shifting toward more plant-rich diets can substantially lower emissions. These strategies also promote human health and food security, according to the report.

“The human enterprise is in a state of ecological overshoot where the Earth’s resources are being consumed faster than they can be replenished,” said co-lead author Christopher Wolf, a former OSU postdoctoral researcher who is now a scientist with Corvallis-based Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates, known as TERA. “Population, livestock, meat consumption and gross domestic product are all at record highs, with an additional 1.3 million humans and half a million ruminant livestock animals added every week.”

To address ecological overshoot, the report calls for equitable and transformative changes across many areas of society, including reducing overconsumption by the wealthy. Among the report’s other key elements:

• In 2024, fossil fuel energy consumption hit a record high. Combined solar and wind consumption also set a new record but was 31 times lower than fossil fuel energy consumption.

• Warming is accelerating, likely driven by reduced aerosol cooling, strong cloud feedbacks and declines in albedo, the reflection of sunlight back into space.

• Ocean heat content and wildfire-related tree cover loss are at all-time highs. By August 2025, the European Union’s wildfire season was already the most extensive on record, with more than 1 million hectares burned.

• Deadly and costly weather disasters surged in 2024 and 2025, with Texas flooding killing at least 135 people; Los Angeles wildfires causing damages in excess of $250 billion; and Typhoon Yagi killing more than 800 people in Southeast Asia.

• The Atlantic Meridional Ocean Overturning Circulation is weakening, threatening major climate disruptions.

• Social tipping points can drive rapid change. Sustained, nonviolent movements can shift public norms and policy in a positive direction.

The report warns that every fraction of a degree of avoided warming matters for human and ecological well-being. Small reductions in temperature rise can significantly reduce the risk of extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and food and water insecurity. The authors emphasize that delaying action will lock in higher costs and more severe impacts, while swift, coordinated measures can yield immediate benefits for communities and ecosystems worldwide.

“Climate mitigation strategies are available, cost effective and urgently needed, and we can still limit warming if we act boldly and quickly, but the window is closing,” Ripple said. “The cost of mitigating climate change is likely much, much smaller than the global economic damages that climate-related impacts could cause.”

Research Material: 

• 2015 Paris Agreement

• What Is: A Greenhouse Gas

Published in journal: BioScience

Title: The 2025 state of the climate report: a planet on the brink

Authors: William J Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Michael E Mann, Johan Rockström, Jillian W Gregg, Chi Xu, Nico Wunderling, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Roberto Schaeffer, Wendy J Broadgate, Thomas M Newsome, Emily Shuckburgh, and Peter H Gleick

Source/Credit: Oregon State University | Steve Lundeberg

Reference Number: env102925_01

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