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| Coral bleached by high water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Photo Credit: Professor Peter Mumby |
The most sophisticated modeling to date forecasts that under the current global emissions pathway the Great Barrier Reef could lose most of its coral by the end of the century, but curbing climate change and strategic management will help coral resilience.
A research team led by The University of Queensland simulated different future climate scenarios driven by a range of plausible global emissions trajectories.
Dr Yves-Marie Bozec from UQ’s School of the Environment said the comprehensive modelling of individual corals included their ability to adapt to warmer water, large-scale reef dynamics and their interconnections on ocean currents.
“We ran all of those factors with the most up to date climate projections – and the news was not good,” Dr Bozec said.
“We forecast a rapid coral decline before the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.
“Corals may partially recover after 2050, but only if ocean warming is sufficiently slow to allow natural adaptation to keep pace with temperature changes.
“Adaptation may keep pace if global warming does not exceed 2 degrees by 2100.
“For that to happen, more action is needed globally to reduce carbon emissions which are driving climate change.”
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