Forests in southern and western Europe are especially at risk, while the economic, climatic and ecological impacts extend far beyond regional borders
Photo Credit: Rupert Seidl / TUM
Scientific Frontline: Extended "At a Glance" Summary: Future Forest Disturbances in Europe
The Core Concept: By 2100, the total area of European forests damaged by climate-driven disturbances—such as wildfires, storms, and bark beetles—is projected to substantially increase, potentially doubling under severe global warming scenarios.
Key Distinction/Mechanism: While routine tree mortality is a natural component of forest regeneration, this emerging paradigm is defined by an unprecedented scale of destruction driven by climate change, fundamentally altering ecosystem trajectories rather than simply recycling older canopy growth.
Major Frameworks/Components:
- AI-Driven Simulation Modeling: The researchers employed an artificial intelligence model trained on 135 million data points derived from forest simulations.
- High-Resolution Spatial Analysis: Multi-decadal satellite data covering 13,000 European locations enabled the simulation of future disturbances down to a single-hectare resolution.
- Climate Scenario Mapping: Projections were calculated based on varying degrees of global warming, ranging from an optimistic 2°C limit to scenarios exceeding 4°C.
Branch of Science: Ecosystem Dynamics, Forestry Management, Climatology, and Environmental Science.
Future Application: These highly precise regional projections will allow forest managers and policymakers to anticipate vulnerabilities (especially in heavily impacted Southern and Western Europe), buffer against disruptions in timber markets, and leverage post-disturbance landscapes as catalysts to plant new, climate-resilient forest structures.
Why It Matters: Large-scale disturbances directly dictate the capacity of forests to store carbon, provide habitat for diverse species, and supply timber. Anticipating these dynamic shifts is critical to preserving cross-regional ecosystem services and mitigating future economic and ecological instability.
Wildfires, storms, and bark beetles have a major impact on forests and the benefits they provide for people and the environment. For the first time, a large international team led by researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) has calculated how disturbances could transform Europe’s forests by 2100. Even in the most optimistic scenario, the team foresees a substantial increase in damaged forest area—in the most pessimistic case, disturbances could even double.
Tree mortality is not new; it is a part of natural forest dynamics—where old trees die; young trees regenerate and form the next generation of canopy trees. What is new is the scale at which wildfires, storms, and bark beetles—fueled by climate change—are reshaping forests. Recent years have already shown dramatic levels of forest damage in Central Europe, but until now it was unclear how much forest area might be affected by disturbances in the future. Disturbances determine how much carbon forests can store, how much timber they can provide, and which species they provide habitat for—making the findings highly relevant for policymakers and society.
This knowledge gap has now been filled by a large team of researchers led by Rupert Seidl, Professor of Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management at TUM. The researchers estimate that with global warming of just over 4 degrees Celsius, the area disturbed by fires, storms, and bark beetles could more than double by 2100. As a baseline, the researchers used remotely sensed data from 1986 to 2020—a period that already saw unusually high levels of forest disturbance. Even in the best‑case scenario, with warming limited to roughly 2 degrees Celsius, the researchers expect more forest damage in the future than during this reference period.
Regional differences
The team used an AI‑based simulation model trained on 135 million data points from forest simulations across 13,000 European locations in combination with multi-decadal satellite data on forest disturbances. This allowed them to simulate future forest development and the occurrence and impacts of disturbances down to the level of a single hectare, yielding highly precise insights into regional differences in future forest disturbance trajectories.
According to the study, forests in Southern and Western Europe will be particularly affected and will undergo the strongest changes in forest disturbance. Northern Europe is expected to be less severely impacted overall, though hotspots of future forest damage are also likely to emerge there. “Disturbances are increasingly becoming a cross‑regional issue, disrupting timber markets across Europe and threatening the ecosystem services forests provide for society,” says Rupert Seidl.
The authors of the study therefore see an urgent need for forest policy and management to account for increasing disturbance levels: “We need to be prepared for significant forest damage in the coming years. On one hand, this means we must prepare for and buffer against stronger fluctuations in the services forests provide. On the other hand, disturbances also offer the opportunity to establish new, climate‑resilient forests—they act as catalysts for change. Forestry must address both the risks and opportunities of rising disturbance levels, supported by new scientific methods and insights,” Seidl explains.
Published in journal: Science
Title: Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century
Authors: Marc Grünig, Werner Rammer, Cornelius Senf, Katharina Albrich, Frédéric André, Andrey L. D. Augustynczik, Martin Baumann, Friedrich J. Bohn, Meike Bouwman, Harald Bugmann, Alessio Collalti, Irina Cristal, Daniela Dalmonech, Francois De Coligny, Laura Dobor, Christina Dollinger, Josep Maria Espelta, David I. Forrester, Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo, José Ramón González-Olabarria, Ulrike Hiltner, Tomáš Hlásny, Juha Honkaniemi, Nica Huber, Mathieu Jonard, Anna Maria Jönsson, Georges Kunstler, Fredrik Lagergren, Marcus Lindner, Marco Mina, Christine Moos, Xavier Morin, Bart Muys, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Mats Nieberg, Marco Patacca, Mikko Peltoniemi, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Ilié Storms, Dominik Thom, Maude toïgo, and Rupert Seidl
Source/Credit: Technische Universität München
Reference Number: eco030526_02
.jpg)