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The orange hawkweed is planted as a garden plant, and then sometimes escapes cultivation in large stands.
Photo Credit: © F. Essl
Scientific Frontline: Extended "At a Glance" Summary: Global Shifts in Plant Invasion Hotspots
The Core Concept: High-resolution global modeling of 9,701 alien plant species reveals that the geographical hotspots for plant invasion risk are shifting from subtropical zones toward temperate and polar regions due to climate change and land-use alterations.
Key Distinction/Mechanism: Unlike previous assessments based primarily on current botanical occurrences, this research utilizes advanced predictive modeling that integrates future climate and land-use scenarios through the 21st century. It identifies not only the geographical poleward shift of invasion risk but also predicts a substantial turnover in species composition, with new sets of heat-adapted alien plants replacing current flora in rapidly warming regions.
Origin/History: The findings were published in Nature Ecology & Evolution on March 27, 2026, by an international research team led by biodiversity researchers Ali Omer and Franz Essl from the Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research at the University of Vienna.
Major Frameworks/Components:
- High-Resolution Predictive Modeling: Utilization of global environmental variables and distribution data for 9,701 non-native species to map present and future invasion risks.
- Climate and Land-Use Scenarios: Projections extending to the end of the 21st century to assess the compounding impacts of the Anthropocene on global ecosystems.
- Geographical Shift Analysis: Tracking the contraction of invasion hotspots in hot, semi-arid subtropical regions and their subsequent expansion into previously unsuitable cold-climate zones, including Central Europe, boreal, and polar regions.
- Species Turnover Dynamics: Evaluating the compositional changes of non-native plant assemblages as ecosystems adapt to newly warmed environments.

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