A study led by Stony Brook University faculty and published in Nature projects that smoke exposure from wildfires in the coming decades toward 2050 could result in tens of thousands of excess deaths in the United States.
This projection, by a national team of investigators led by Stony Brook’s Minghao Qiu, is based on research that assesses wildfire activity in an increasingly dry and warming climate.
Wildfires have significantly increased in recent years, often in the western U.S. but also in other regions. Warmer, drier conditions are increasing the scope, damage, and exposures to people from wildfires. The study details the use of historical data from wildfires and smoke pollution, along with statistical models and machine learning tools to estimate deaths caused by exposure to smoke particulates in climate change scenarios.
Deaths from wildfire smoke result from inhaling a complex mix of chemicals. Wildfires can expose large numbers of people to these toxic pollutants for days or weeks at a time, contributing to deaths up to three years after the initial exposure, according to the study.



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