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| The introduction of renewable energy sources in developing Asian countries may lead to a short-term increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Photo Credit: Nicholas Doherty |
Scientists at Ural Federal University have found that the introduction of renewable energy sources (RES) and technological innovations in developing Asian countries can lead to a short-term increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The reason is the effect of rebound and insufficient effectiveness of regulatory systems. This calls into question the effectiveness of current measures to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, the researchers believe. They wrote on this topic in an article in the journal Energy Economics.
"In Asia, more efficient coal-fired power plants or cheaper solar energy can lower electricity prices, leading to increased energy consumption by industry and households in general. Although innovations reduce CO₂ emissions in the short term, they actually increase emissions in the medium and long term, as efficiency gains drive growth in industrial activity and energy demand. This is a classic rebound effect: efficiency stimulates economies of scale, negating the initial environmental benefits," explained Kazi Sohag, co-author of the paper and head of the UrFU Laboratory of Economic Policy and Natural Resources.
The researchers analyzed data from six countries in the region – India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – for the period from 2000 to 2022. They used the long-difference regression (LdR) model to assess the short-, medium- and long-term impact of innovation, investment in renewable energy, vulnerability of energy systems, and regulatory quality on carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxide emissions.
Scientists note that renewable energy sources begin to displace coal and oil from the energy mix only after their deployment reaches a sufficient scale, which in turn leads to a significant reduction in emissions. This explains the inverted U-shaped relationship documented in the study, according to which investments in renewable energy initially increase emissions, but ultimately contribute to long-term decarbonization.
To solve such problems, scientists propose using regulatory policy measures coupled with energy management reforms to ensure transparent and consistent implementation. Currently, researchers consider the most effective strategies to be those that will make businesses pay for their emissions, which will automatically force them to rethink their approach to production efficiency and save money on resources and energy.
For example, stricter emission standards can directly limit pollutants at their source, while carbon taxes or pricing mechanisms constrain the use of fossil fuels and create fiscal space for investments in education and clean energy. Economists emphasize that direct investments in grid infrastructure are equally important, as they reduce transmission losses and improve integration into the overall renewable energy system.
Authors: Constantin Gurdgiev, Kazi Sohag, and Monirul Islam
Source/Credit: Ural Federal University | Delfina Zakharova
Reference Number: env100925_01
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