Photo Credit: Heidi-Ann Fourkiller
Scientific Frontline: Extended "At a Glance" Summary
The Core Concept: An open-access digital tool designed to assess and project the specific impacts of climate change on biodiversity within protected areas worldwide.
Key Distinction/Mechanism: Unlike broad climate models, this tool provides actionable, localized data for over 98,000 protected areas (larger than 1 km²), allowing managers to visualize future risks such as species loss and shifting climate suitability under various warming scenarios.
Origin/History: Developed through a long-term collaboration between the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia and the eResearch Centre at James Cook University; it draws on the work of the Wallace Initiative, named after ecologist Alfred Russell Wallace.
Major Frameworks/Components:
- Biodiversity Projections: Estimates of species richness and population trends under different global warming levels (e.g., 1.5°C, 2°C, 4°C).
- Resilience Mapping: Identification of "climate refugia"—areas that remain suitable for species survival—and areas requiring intensive adaptation efforts.
- Land Cover Analysis: Data on projected changes in vegetation and habitat types.
Branch of Science: Conservation Biology, Climatology, and Ecology.
Future Application: Enables conservationists and policymakers to implement targeted adaptation strategies—such as wetland restoration or "sponge landscape" interventions—to mitigate ecological disruption in vulnerable regions like peat bogs and national parks.
Why It Matters: Most protected areas were established without accounting for climate change; this tool fills a critical gap by providing the evidence-based data necessary to prevent irreversible biodiversity loss and build ecological resilience.
Scientists have published the most comprehensive assessment to date of how climate change threatens biodiversity in more than 98,000 protected areas worldwide, aiming to help conservationists build resilience in the face of accelerating climate impacts.
The open-access tool - Wallace’s pARCs (protected Area Resilience to Climate change) - is designed to equip protected area managers and conservation planners with accessible, actionable information, including detailed climate, land cover change, population, and biodiversity projections for most land-based protected areas larger than 1 km².
It is the result of a long-term collaboration between the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the UEA and the eResearch Centre at James Cook University, drawing on the work of the Wallace Initiative - named after ecologist Alfred Russell Wallace - which is investigating the areas and species that are likely to be the most and least affected by climate change in the future.
Published in the journal Climate Resilience and Sustainability, this new paper documents its development and potential uses and showcases the tool’s application using the example of Biebrza National Park in Poland, one of Europe’s largest peat bog landscapes and an internationally important refuge for wetland birds.
The analysis reveals that Biebrza ranks in the bottom 11 per cent globally in projected biodiversity resilience under 4°C global warming, indicating the potential for profound climate driven ecological disruption and species loss without major adaptation and mitigation action.
Lead author Dr Jeff Price, Associate Professor of Biodiversity and Climate Change at UEA and coordinator of the Wallace Initiative, said: “Protected areas are at the heart of global biodiversity conservation, yet were not designed with climate change in mind. Wallace’s pARCs provides the information managers need to understand future risks and make informed decisions about building resilience.
“The example from Biebrza National Park shows just how urgent the challenge is. Without strong adaptation and global mitigation, many protected ecosystems may face potentially irreversible change.”
Commenting on the dataset Shaun Martin, Vice President, Climate Change Adaptation, at the World Wildlife Fund US, said for conservationists it was nothing short of “transformative”.
“Decision-makers and protected area managers often lack the tools and capacity needed to meaningfully incorporate climate risk into management plans. This is precisely where such innovative work has proven invaluable,” he added.
Implications for conservation
The findings reinforce that limiting global warming to 1.5 - 2°C remains crucial to avoid potential irreversible biodiversity losses. Beyond these thresholds, adaptation in many protected areas becomes increasingly difficult as some ecosystems cross climatic limits they have not experienced in recent times.
The findings underline the urgent need for both mitigation and adaptation. For example, maintaining Biebrza’s peatlands and marshes will require strengthening water retention to counter rising drought risks and restoring traditional, low impact habitat management practices, such as hand mowing to maintain habitat heterogeneity.
In addition, investment will be needed in sponge landscape interventions, such as natural dikes and wetland restoration, to slow runoff and store water.
A tool for planners worldwide
The authors say the Wallace’s pARCs reports offer a powerful resource for protected area authorities, NGOs, and policymakers.
Each report provides standardized climate and biodiversity projections, land cover trends and species population data, as well as maps showing species richness, refugia, and adaptation effort to support evidence-based resilience planning at local and national scales, under a range of global warming levels.
Research material: Wallace’s pARCs reports
Published in journal: Climate Resilience and Sustainability
Authors: Jeff Price, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Erin M. Graham, Timothy J. Osborn, and Rachel Warren
Source/Credit: University of East Anglia
Reference Number: eco021626_01
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