Taken from Rothera Research Station, Antarctic Peninsula
Photo Credit: Dr Jan De Rydt.
Scientific Frontline: "At a Glance" Summary: The Future of a Warming Antarctic Peninsula
- Main Discovery: The trajectory of the Antarctic Peninsula over the coming centuries will be determined by climate action taken within the next decade. While higher emission pathways risk the irreversible loss of ice shelves, glaciers, and iconic polar species, adhering to a low emissions future can successfully prevent the most severe and detrimental environmental impacts.
- Methodology: Researchers applied numerical models to project outcomes for the Antarctic Peninsula under three distinct future emission scenarios: low (1.8°C temperature rise compared to preindustrial levels by 2100), medium-high (3.6°C), and very high (4.4°C). The analysis evaluated eight specific environmental variables, encompassing marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land and sea ice, ice shelves, atmospheric conditions, the Southern Ocean, and extreme weather events.
- Key Data: Current climate trajectories place the planet on a medium to medium-high emissions path. Under the very high emissions scenario, sea ice coverage is projected to decrease by 20 percent, an outcome that would devastate keystone prey species such as krill and amplify global ocean warming.
- Significance: Environmental degradation in the Antarctic Peninsula extends globally, driving sea-level rise and altering large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Crossing critical climatic thresholds under higher emissions scenarios will trigger structural collapses in ice shelves and ecosystem shifts that are entirely irreversible on any human timescale.
- Future Application: The integrated oceanographic, atmospheric, and glaciological models utilized in this study provide a critical framework for forecasting the precise limits of polar ecosystem resilience. These predictive tools are designed to inform immediate global policy decisions and emission reduction targets before irreversible structural tipping points are crossed.
- Branch of Science: Climatology, Glaciology, Oceanography, and Environmental Science.
- Additional Detail: The physical impacts of a warming climate are directly damaging Antarctic research infrastructure, creating hazardous conditions that complicate the ongoing collection of empirical data required to refine future climate forecasting models.
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| Chinstrap penguins on the Antarctic Peninsula Photo Credit: Professor Alison Banwell. |
A new analysis of decades of research on the Antarctic Peninsula, involving experts from Northumbria University, concludes that the next ten years of climate action will decide Antarctica’s future for centuries to come.
Pale expanses of ice keep water locked up and reflect heat from the planet in Antarctica — but the climate crisis is putting these safeguards under increasing pressure. Rising temperatures could destroy its ecosystems and put other parts of the planet at risk by driving sea level rise and damaging food chains.
An international group of scientists modeling possible outcomes for the Antarctic Peninsula have outlined the best and worst-case scenarios for climate change in a new paper published in the scientific journal Frontiers in Environmental Science. The results demonstrate just how high the stakes are — but also how much harm can still be prevented.
“The Antarctic Peninsula is a special place,” said Professor Bethan Davies of Newcastle University, lead author on the paper published today. “Its future depends on the choices that we make today. Under a low emissions future, we can avoid the most important and detrimental impacts. However, under a higher emissions scenario, we risk the loss of sea ice, ice shelves, glaciers, and iconic species such as penguins.
“Though Antarctica is far away, changes here will impact the rest of the world through changes in sea level, oceanic and atmospheric connections and circulation changes. Changes in the Antarctic do not stay in the Antarctic.”
The scientists focused on the Antarctic Peninsula as a center for research, tourism, and fishing which is very well-studied and vulnerable to anthropogenic changes, allowing them to track the effects of global warming on its ecosystem.
Using scenarios which estimate future emissions to model outcomes for the Antarctic Peninsula: low emissions (1.8°C temperature rise compared to preindustrial levels by 2100), medium-high emissions (3.6°C), and very high emissions (4.4°C), they looked at eight different aspects of the Peninsula’s environment affected by climate change. This included marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land and sea ice, ice shelves, the Southern Ocean, the atmosphere, and extreme events like heatwaves.
In higher emissions scenarios, the Southern Ocean will get warmer faster and accelerate the erosion of ice on land and at sea. The higher temperatures get, the more likely ice shelves are to collapse, driving sea level rise.
Professor Alison Banwell, a co-author on the paper from the Center for Polar Observation and Modeling (CPOM) based at Northumbria University, carried out analysis of the impact on the Peninsula’s ice shelves.
She explained: “Ice shelves act as critical buffers against sea-level rise, holding back Antarctica’s land ice, yet their future remains highly uncertain.
They can appear stable for decades before collapsing rapidly once key structural or climatic thresholds are crossed, making these events difficult to capture in models.
“What this study shows is that the future of the Antarctic Peninsula — including its ice shelves — depends strongly on the emissions pathway we follow. Under lower emissions, many of these systems remain stressed but largely intact; under higher emissions, we cross thresholds that lead to irreversible change.
“The Antarctic Peninsula is already responding to climate change, but our study shows that decisions made in the coming decades will be crucial in terms of shaping its ice, ecosystems, and contribution to sea-level rise for centuries to come.”
Under the highest emissions scenario, sea ice coverage could fall by 20 percent, devastating species that rely on it — such as krill, an important prey for whales and penguins — and amplifying ocean warming worldwide. Higher ocean warming would also stress ecosystems and contribute to extreme weather.
Although it’s difficult to predict how these environmental changes would combine to affect animals, the scientists expect that under very high emissions scenarios, many species will move south to escape higher temperatures. Warm-blooded predators may cope with temperature changes, but if their prey can’t, they will starve.
Dr Jan De Rydt, a co-author and researcher in polar glaciology and oceanography from Northumbria University’s School of Geography and Natural Sciences, worked on modeling the impacts on land ice. He added: “It is clear that glaciers along the Antarctic Peninsula will continue to change rapidly in a warming world.
“Exactly how much ice will be lost, and the consequences for oceans and ecosystems, remains an active area of research, requiring integrated oceanographic, atmospheric and glaciological observations and modeling. The UK plays a leading role in this effort, with Northumbria University researchers at the forefront of developing numerical models that advance our understanding of Antarctica’s future."
Researchers aren’t safe from the consequences of climate change either: damage to infrastructure is making it more dangerous to carry out research, so it’s harder to collect the data needed to forecast the future effects of climate change. Although numerical models simplify reality, more data makes them more accurate. However, the scientists emphasize that we must act now to avoid the worst-case scenarios.
“At the moment, we’re on track for a medium to medium-high emissions future,” added Professor Davies. “A lower emissions scenario would mean that although the current trends of ice loss and extreme events would continue, they would be much more muted than under a higher scenario. Winter sea ice would be only slightly smaller than today, and sea level contributions from the Peninsula would be limited to a few millimeters. Most of the glaciers would be recognizable, and we would retain the supporting ice shelves.
“What concerns me most about the higher emissions scenario is just how permanent the changes could be. These changes would be irreversible on any human timescale. It would be very hard to regrow the glaciers and bring back the wildlife that makes Antarctica special. If we don’t make changes now, our great-grandchildren will have to live with the consequences.”
Published in journal: Frontiers in Environmental Science
Authors: Bethan J. Davies, Angus Atkinson, Alison F. Banwell, Mark Brandon, Thomas Caton Harrison, Peter Convey, Jan De Rydt, Klaus Dodds, Rod Downie, Tamsin L. Edwards, Ella Gilbert, Bryn Hubbard, Kevin A. Hughes, Gareth J. Marshall, Andrew Orr, Joeri Rogelj, Hélène Seroussi, Martin Siegert, and Julienne Stroeve
Source/Credit: Northumbria University
Reference Number: env022126_01
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