Rapid growth in climate extremes hitting critical region of Amazon hardest.
Photo Credit: Anthony Bringas
Scientific Frontline: Extended "At a Glance" Summary: Climate Extremes in the Amazon
The Core Concept: Recent high-resolution research reveals that the central north Amazon is experiencing a rapid and previously unrecognized increase in extreme climate events, specifically extreme temperatures and water stress, driven by global climate change.
Key Distinction/Mechanism: Unlike the Southern Amazon, where average temperature increases are largely driven by local deforestation and land-use changes, the central north Amazon's rapid growth in climate extremes (hottest and driest periods) outpaces its average temperature changes and is primarily attributed to global emissions rather than local deforestation.
Major Frameworks/Components:
- Extreme Tendency vs. Central Tendency: The study utilized a novel metric, "extreme tendency," which isolates data from the most exceptional years (hottest and driest), contrasting it with "central tendency" (average rates of change), to reveal the severity of extreme events.
- Water Deficit Modeling: Researchers implemented a new measure of water deficit that calculates the effects of temperature on water loss.
- High-Resolution Mapping: The study divided the Amazon into 11 km grid cells, combining satellite and local weather station data to analyze dry seasons for specific areas across the entire biome.
Branch of Science: Climatology, Environmental Science, Ecology.
Future Application: The high-resolution modeling of "extreme tendencies" provides a framework for predicting local vulnerabilities, enabling targeted adaptation strategies, directing conservation resources, and informing public policies like forest restoration plans and emergency response systems for local communities.
Why It Matters: The rapid escalation of extreme heat and drought threatens critical aquatic ecosystems (causing mass mortality of species like fish and river dolphins), increases the risk of megafires, jeopardizes local food security, and risks pushing the Amazon biome past critical thresholds, emphasizing the urgent need for global emission reductions.
Rapid growth in climate extremes is hitting a critical region of the Amazon hardest, according to new research involving the University of East Anglia (UEA).
The central north Amazon, with extensive areas of high forest cover, natural savannas, and vast and important Indigenous territories, was not previously considered as being the most affected by climate change.
However, this region, which is considered critical to Amazonia’s cultural and biodiversity wealth, has unexpectedly found itself at the forefront of rapid growth in climate extremes.
Research published in Communications Earth & Environment shows that Amazonia is experiencing rapid growth in extreme temperatures and water stress—with 10 percent of the basin, an area larger than 700,000 square kilometers (bigger than Afghanistan), witnessing increases in extreme temperatures during the dry season of at least 0.75°C a decade, and more than 3.22°C since 1981.
The findings reveal that climate extremes in the Amazon have been getting increasingly worse over the last 43 years. These changes do not show up in assessments of average Amazon temperatures, which are rising at 0.21°C a decade and are in line with the global average warming.
With the El Niño of 2026 expected to be the largest in living memory, the Amazon might suffer from extremely high temperatures and droughts just two years after the last big drought in 2024. Scientists fear that if these rapid increases in extreme climate events continue, it could risk pushing the Amazon past critical thresholds.
Up-to-Date Assessment
The study was led by researchers at Lancaster University, in partnership with WWF-UK and an international team of more than 50 scientists. It sheds new light on climate extremes within the Amazon and provides an up-to-date, comprehensive assessment of its changing climate across more than four decades and at a high resolution for the whole biome.
Climate extremes are responsible for some of the most harmful climate-linked impacts on nature and people, driving increased mortality, losses of forest species, and damage to ecosystems.
In the Amazon, recent exceptionally hot or dry periods have led to extensive forest fires, large-scale animal and tree deaths, as well as impacts to human health from heat and air pollution.
Co-author Dr. Thiago Couto, of UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, said: “Extreme high temperatures and droughts directly impact the aquatic ecosystems and the people that rely on them for food and transportation.
“Floodplain lakes in the Central Amazon have been experiencing staggering temperatures that can reach 40°C. This has produced mass mortality events of many aquatic species, including fish and river dolphins.
“Knowing the areas of the Amazon that are more prone to face the extreme consequences of climate change is a critical step to plan adaptation and mitigation strategies.”
“We are most interested in things when they are at their hottest and driest, as that is when the most harm can be caused by high temperatures,” said Prof. Jos Barlow of Lancaster University, lead author of the report.
“While this has been assessed in the Southern Amazon, which shares a largely similar dry season, it has never been assessed across the whole of the Amazon—which includes regions north of the equator which have a different dry season period.”
Temperature Changes and Water Stress
By dividing the Amazon into 11 km cells and using high-resolution temperature and rainfall data from sources that combine information from satellites and local weather stations, the research team identified dry seasons for each individual area of the Amazon.
Using this, as well as a new measure of water deficit that accounts for the effects of temperature on water loss, the researchers modeled temperature changes and water stress across the entire Amazon from 1981 to 2023. Temperature and water deficit were recorded as the averages from across the dry season or the whole hydrological year (dry and wet seasons combined).
The rate of climate change was assessed in two different ways. First, the authors used the "central tendency," the most commonly used measure to date, which emphasizes average rates of temperature and water deficit change across all years. Second, the authors then used "extreme tendency," which emphasizes the most exceptional years. This provides a more accurate indication of the changes during the exceptionally hot or dry time periods.
The Southern Amazon, which has experienced significant deforestation and land-use change, is confirmed as the fastest-warming region when looking at average temperature changes. However, the central north Amazon is identified as experiencing the most rapid growth in climate extremes.
“The rates of change in climate extremes are much higher than the rates of change of average climate in the Amazon, and the most affected regions are also different for extremes and average climate,” said Dr. Nathália Carvalho, postdoctoral research associate at Lancaster Environment Centre. “This is important because we show that Amazonia’s climate is not changing uniformly.”
Rates of Change “Alarming”
Prof. Barlow said: “Extreme climate is a primary concern, contributing to forest fires, exceptional river levels, air pollution, and high temperatures that can harm people as well as animals and the forest trees. The rates of change that we are seeing in the most affected regions are very alarming.
“Given the area that is experiencing the fastest growth in extreme temperatures is far from the arc of deforestation, these rapid rises cannot be explained by local changes such as deforestation and land-use changes. It’s showing how the Amazon is being affected by global climate change. It’s the world’s emissions that are responsible.”
There is evidence from recent studies that climate extremes are impacting the region, including the first observed mass death of mammals in the Amazon, where sloths and other mammals were found on the forest floor or hanging dead from understory trees; reductions in the size of bird populations; and changes to bird lifespans, appearance, and behavior.
The region has also experienced extensive forest fires, extreme heat, and drought, contributing to megafires, which have led to air pollution in the Amazon city of Manaus, and drying rivers have affected the health of people living in the forests.
Impacts on Local Livelihoods
Dr. Joice Ferreira, at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), highlights the social concerns: “Extreme climate events are impacting local livelihoods in many ways, affecting key products like açaí. This removes the safety net that forests provide, threatening food security and weakening their role in a growing socio-bioeconomy.
“Most concerning, it could derail public policies currently being designed and implemented by Brazilian and state governments to drive positive transformation in the region, such as forest restoration plans. This scenario demands global action to halt climate change in the name of climate justice.”
Prof. Barlow added, “Adaptation measures are urgently required to address the impacts of these rapidly changing climate extremes, including preventing factors that amplify climate risks, such as deforestation. We also need to bring in measures to support the fighting of forest fires, as well as supporting local people when the rivers they rely on for navigation dry up, especially in a year like 2026 with the arrival of a super El Niño.”
Mike Barrett, chief scientific adviser at WWF-UK, said, “The rapidly increasing climate extremes revealed in this study highlight the urgent need for global action on climate change. However, the new regions of risk also demonstrate the need to support other measures, including an end to deforestation and support for measures such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility if we are to avoid critical tipping points and environmental collapse."
Research material: Climate Extremes in Amazonia. Maps with the rates of change in temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation can be assessed interactively at this platform.
Published in journal: Communications Earth & Environment
Title: Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia
Authors: Jos Barlow, Nathália S. Carvalho, Cássio Alencar Nunes, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Ane Alencar, Liana O. Anderson, Luiz E.O.C Aragão, Fabricio Baccaro, Mike Barrett, Erika Berenguer, Kristian Bodolai, Paulo Monteiro Brando, Thiago B. A. Couto, Tomas Ferreira Domingues, Fernando Elias, Ted R. Feldpausch, Igor José Malfetoni Ferreira, Joice N. Ferreira, Bernardo M. Flores, David Galbraith, Toby Alan Gardner, Emanuel Gloor, Marina Hirota, Valerie Kapos, David M. Lapola, Cecília Leal, Alexander Charles Lees, Bel Lyon, Marcia N. Macedo, Yadvinder Malhi, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon Junior, Patrick Meir, Lina M. Mercado, Oliver Metcalf, Leonardo de Sousa Miranda, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Douglas C. Morton, Jeanne L. Nel, Rafael Silva Oliveira, Oliver L. Phillips, Lucy Rowland, Juliana Schietti, Camila V. J. Silva, Celso H. L. Silva-Junior, Patrícia S. Silva, Juliana M. Silveira, Divino Vicente Silvério, Stephen Sitch, Paulo Amador Tavares, Cristina Telhado, Ima C. G. Vieira, and Helga Correa Wiederhecker
Source/Credit: University of East Anglia
Edited by: Scientific Frontline
Reference Number: as091226_01
